Editor’s Note: We’re changing things up. Every year, Loomis Sayles features outlooks from our sector teams — teams composed of traders, analysts, strategists and portfolio managers immersed in their respective sectors of the market. This year, we’re tailoring our outlooks to focus on what’s top-of-mind for many investors.
While we expect global growth to slow in the fourth quarter as many countries try to contain another wave of COVID-19, we have upgraded our 2020 GDP growth forecasts for the US and China.
Investor resilience may be tested in the coming months with dwindling fiscal support and political uncertainty in the US.
We believe the global economy appears to be working its way out of a deep recession. Read on for a visual snapshot of GDP growth around the globe.
Investors appear firmly focused on the economic recovery ahead. With Fed support and the potential for additional fiscal stimulus, we expect capital to shift toward riskier assets like credit and equities. However, we acknowledge that risk assets are largely priced for the better days we see ahead—a substantial decline in economic conditions could send markets into a corresponding decline.
The COVID-19 pandemic has tipped the global economy into what appears to be the deepest recession in decades. No region has escaped the impact, but some have fared better than others. Read on for a visual snapshot of what 2020 growth may look like across the globe.
COVID-19 continues to cause havoc across global economies—a trend that, unfortunately, is likely to continue through this quarter. However, we anticipate a broad rebound later this year on the back of meaningful stimulus recently put in place.
2020 is starting off with a strong risk appetite, generally fair-to-rich asset valuations, and accommodative monetary policy from the major central banks. If the current expansion can stay on track, we anticipate another year of positive risk-asset performance.
Everyone has their methods for mining valuable insights from the vast amount of data and news available in this age of information. At Loomis Sayles, leveraging our sector teams is one way we do this.
We’re seeing early signs of stabilization in global manufacturing. Central banks appear committed to supporting the global economy through easier monetary policy. Market sentiment has become more optimistic. We’re optimistic too. However, even if a solid manufacturing recovery materializes, we are not expecting global growth to accelerate substantially in 2020.
We think an outright recession in the next 12 months is unlikely, but we need to see a cyclical pickup soon. In the meantime, we believe patient investors could still see some modest returns.
While the longest economic expansion in US history continues, investor skepticism regarding its staying power seems to be rising. In our view, indicators suggest the economy is in the downturn phase of a mini-cycle—a period of slower economic growth but not outright GDP decline.
Global economic activity indicators are signaling that the manufacturing-driven slowdown has not yet run its course. However, we remain optimistic that activity will pick up in the latter half of 2019 without a recession in the US or China. Read on for a visual snapshot of growth themes across the globe.
The global economy appears to be heading out of a soft patch within its continued expansion. In the coming months, we expect a pickup in economic activity, stable global growth, moderate-to-low inflation pressure and accommodative monetary policy across most regions. Read on for a visual snapshot of growth themes across the globe.
The road ahead for risk assets looks pretty smooth right now. But valuations have already baked in a fairly rosy macroeconomic outlook. Markets are anticipating a rebound in growth and continued economic expansion. Is that what we will get?
Consensus expectations for global growth have been revised lower and fiscal stimulus in the US could fade in the coming quarters. We view this period as a soft patch in a continued expansion that likely leads growth back toward levels consistent with the global economy’s long-run potential.
Sector teams are a critical part of the investment process at Loomis Sayles. They bring together traders, analysts, strategists and portfolio managers, each with expertise in specific financial market sectors.
Global economic activity appears to be slowing down. But slowing down and tipping into recession are two different things. Isee limited evidence to suggest the global or US economy is heading toward recession in the near term. But investors should be ready for higher volatility and modest total returns as we transition toward slower growth in this mature phase of the expansion.
Most major economies appear to be gradually advancing through the credit cycle, with most countries in recovery or expansion. We expect global growth to remain near current levels, but we are mindful of key risks. Read on for a visual snapshot of growth themes across the globe.
The US and China look set to propel global growth forward in the quarters ahead, supported by stable growth and moderate inflation. Here's a snapshot of my asset class outlook.
I believe US dollar strength is likely to persist, largely driven by global growth, monetary policy and trade developments. However, there are a number of additional factors at play. Here is a checklist of dollar drivers and how I expect each factor to influence the currency.
Don't let increased volatility throw you off track. We believe key drivers of growth around the world remain in place. Although the pace of global acceleration has slowed a bit recently, economic indicators continue to signal levels of activity consistent with expansion.
While the markets in the first quarter may have been roiled by a former antagonist—volatility—the outlook for the rest of the year looks solid. Global growth is projected to continue, fortified by strong corporate earnings estimates—particularly for US companies, where tax cuts should boost bottom lines.
We expect a constructive global growth environment to persist into 2018. While there is potential for a temporary slowdown, a significant deviation from broadly positive trends across risk asset markets seems unlikely. How might this differ across key regions? Read on for a visual snapshot of themes across the globe.
Volatility returned in a big way earlier this week. Over the past few trading sessions, equity market volatility as measured by the VIX more than doubled, and global equities from Europe to the Asia Pacific region suffered steep declines. What happened?
Investing in the information age can be a noisy endeavor–investors are barraged with new information minute by minute. At Loomis Sayles, our investors count on sector teams as one way to cut through the noise.
Global growth has chugged along at a modest pace throughout 2017, and I expect more of the same heading into 2018. Read on for a visual snapshot of our key themes across the globe.
With limited evidence of excess in the global financial system and mostly low interest rates around the world, we remain optimistic about global economic prospects. The expansion is poised to continue, led by growth in emerging economies.
Current estimates show a significant gap between the rate expectations of Wall Street economists and the Fed funds futures markets. The spread between their estimates for December 2019 is nearly 100 basis points, the equivalent of roughly four rate hikes. Over time, this gap in expectations is going to close one way or the other.
After a dip in global real economic growth last year, when a collapse in oil prices crushed the energy sector and related industries, I see global real GDP growth climbing to about 3.4% this year, leveling off through 2018.
Investor confidence in the global outlook for monetary policy, economic growth and inflation has kept volatility contained. Can it continue? We think the risk of a destabilizing policy error is low if central banks remain cognizant of global financial conditions.
A synchronized pickup in global economic activity has lifted the spirits of businesses, consumers and investors worldwide. Though many equity markets are near 52-week highs and credit spreads are near multi-year lows, corporate profits are now growing again in most countries.
A synchronized pickup in global economic activity has lifted the spirits of businesses, consumers and investors worldwide. Though many equity markets are near 52-week highs and credit spreads are near multi-year lows, we still believe the US credit cycle has time to advance in its later stage.
The burning question for equity investors is: what will happen to earnings in 2017?