The first wave of the economic recovery has generally exceeded expectations, but the recent surges in COVID-19 cases could deliver a setback.
Economic activity is expected to recover in the second half of the year, but the shocks in some parts of the world could last for longer.
The coronavirus outbreak is sending ripples through global supply chains and disrupting businesses.
Continued modest global growth in 2020 may be the best we can hope for.
Growth Prospects and Challenges Ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
October will be a telling month for Brexit, the eurozone economy and the U.S.-China trade war.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its growth outlook for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, Japan and China.
A change to global uncertainty will require a concrete settlement of key issues . While downside risks to the global outlook have not increased, they haven’t declined, either.
The sudden escalation of trade tensions that have originated from Washington is casting doubt over the outlook. If the escalation continues, the global economy will continue to decelerate and recession risks will rise.
The economic slowdown that began in late 2018 has started to stabilize. Trade tensions and policy uncertainty took a toll on confidence and financial markets late last year, but both seem less threatening today. Financial conditions have eased as major central banks maintain a fairly accommodative stance amid a subdued inflation outlook.
Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its monthly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
The U.S. economy has shifted into a lower gear, growth has been falling in the Eurozone, Brexit is festering and China is feeling the heat from internal imbalances and an elevated trade spat with the U.S.
The global economy looks set to move into a lower gear as both advanced and emerging economies will find it hard to extend their recent robust economic performance into 2019.
Until this year, the global economy had been characterized by three years of strong, synchronized growth with subdued inflation—the “not too hot, not too cold” characteristics of a “Goldilocks” economy. Though global growth is still relatively resilient, inflation risk is clearly on the rise, driven by high commodity prices and tight labor markets.