Rumors of a contraction to start the year were overblown. Since March, a string of positive economic headlines have helped soothe investor sentiment and maintain economic momentum. We are still in a growth cycle with room to run.
The economic slowdown that began in late 2018 has started to stabilize. Trade tensions and policy uncertainty took a toll on confidence and financial markets late last year, but both seem less threatening today. Financial conditions have eased as major central banks maintain a fairly accommodative stance amid a subdued inflation outlook.
We expect the USMCA to be ratified eventually. But it could take longer than anticipated, and the political environment across North America creates substantial uncertainty.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its monthly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares our view on growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates.
I was born too early to benefit much from Sesame Street, but I still loved The Muppets. Kermit the Frog was my favorite character; alternatively in full control and overwhelmed, Kermit struggled to make sense of the nonsensical. To this day, there are times that I feel confronted with the same challenge.
The U.S. economy has shifted into a lower gear, growth has been falling in the Eurozone, Brexit is festering and China is feeling the heat from internal imbalances and an elevated trade spat with the U.S.
The Economics team explores a smooth economic slowdown, elevated consumer confidence, and troubles in Italy.
The U.S. economy is finding its rhythm after an uncertain start to the year.
The U.S. economy will overcome risks and continue to grow in 2019.
Major economies are positioned to keep growing in the year ahead, but risks are mounting.
Economic growth will continue, even in volatile markets.
The global economy looks set to move into a lower gear as both advanced and emerging economies will find it hard to extend their recent robust economic performance into 2019.
The World Trade Organization plays a crucial role in global trade. How essential is it, and what can we expect as trade tensions rise?
With unemployment low and wages rising as we enter the holiday season, consumer spending will continue to lead economic growth.
Long-term bond yields are rising amid positive economic data and rising inflation.
Until this year, the global economy had been characterized by three years of strong, synchronized growth with subdued inflation—the “not too hot, not too cold” characteristics of a “Goldilocks” economy. Though global growth is still relatively resilient, inflation risk is clearly on the rise, driven by high commodity prices and tight labor markets.
Reflecting on ten years since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy: Households have reduced their borrowing, but governments haven’t. Debates over the response to the financial crisis may never end. Non-bank lenders have thrived while managing their risks.
In the span of human history, retirement is a fairly new idea. Only a few generations ago, most of our ancestors could expect to work until the end of their lives. We are happy to report this is no longer the case. Improving longevity brings the opportunity for retirement, but also the responsibility for preparing. Unfortunately, many Americans have not handled this responsibility very well at all.
The U.S. economy is going through a hot summer, but will cool off later this year.
The Northern Trust economics team explores India, recaps revisions to U.S. economic measurements, and gauges potential future economic growth.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its monthly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for key markets.
The Northern Trust economics team shares its outlook for US economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation, and interest rates in the U.S., U.K., E.U., Japan and China.
The economics team surveys a variety of upcoming events: Mexican elections this weekend, trade battles in the coming months, and LIBOR sunsetting in the years ahead.
Strong growth and employment reports affirm Northern Trust’s positive outlook for U.S. economic performance in the rest of 2018.
Public debt may be growing at the expense of private debt, the Chinese bond market is opening up, and important dates for tariffs are fast approaching.
The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
Northern Trust’s economic team recaps recent economic developments and shares our monthly outlook for economic growth, inflation, employment and interest rates in the United States.
Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its quarterly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
We’ve written about the American steel tariffs in each of the last two weeks. But there remain some important points to make on the topic of trade.
We may come to view February 2018 as a turning point for the U.S. economy. For the first nine years of the current expansion, fiscal policy was constrained and trade policy was measured. During the past month, the two have moved with more force, raising important questions about the outlook.
The White House has announced a new set of broad tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The measure is surprising in its scope, its targets and its break from the long-prevailing trends of international trade.
We’ve been doing some de-cluttering at my house, adapting to life as empty nesters. During a review of some long-forgotten storage bins, I found the very first tax return I ever filed. It listed income of less than $2,000, earned lifeguarding and shelving books at the campus library.
There has been no let-up to the economic news cycle this year. Even the approach of the holiday season has failed to offer a respite, with tax reform deliberations ongoing through the holidays.
This month's forecast follows a wave of generally positive economic data that appeared to shake off the weather-related disruptions seen throughout the summer and early fall.