From freight volume to flight delays and real estate to recession risk, we share quick thoughts on a variety of economic subjects.
Growth Prospects and Challenges Ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
Wealth taxes are politically resonant but difficult to enact. Oil prices are steady despite disruptions, while the EU’s food exports face tariffs.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
Are the latest Brexit and GSE proposals the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?
Deep U.S.-China divisions make a ‘phased’ deal our best hope for trade progress.
Exploring the survey that is the current cause for concern.
October will be a telling month for Brexit, the eurozone economy and the U.S.-China trade war.
Climate change is a risk for the global economy.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its growth outlook for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, Japan and China.
Global trade tensions are taking their toll, leaving Europe struggling for solutions.
U.S. consumer confidence is high, but confidence in China’s economic measurements is not.
Change can threaten, but it can create opportunity if we adapt.
Demand for cars is both slowing and shifting. How will automakers adapt?
The decade of the 1990s in India was an era of rapid change. The sudden rise of new choices and shifts in consumer preferences was stunning, in hindsight.
A change to global uncertainty will require a concrete settlement of key issues . While downside risks to the global outlook have not increased, they haven’t declined, either.
The march of demographics may be slow, but it is sure. And while the consequences of aging may seem far off into the future, they will be substantial. Unless we address them now, they will become much less manageable later.
How much longer can the Fed stay patient? We see a change coming.
The sudden escalation of trade tensions that have originated from Washington is casting doubt over the outlook. If the escalation continues, the global economy will continue to decelerate and recession risks will rise.
Many factors are holding down inflation, U.S. jobs growth continues to surprise and China’s bad loans are getting worse.
The economic slowdown that began in late 2018 has started to stabilize. Trade tensions and policy uncertainty took a toll on confidence and financial markets late last year, but both seem less threatening today. Financial conditions have eased as major central banks maintain a fairly accommodative stance amid a subdued inflation outlook.
We expect the USMCA to be ratified eventually. But it could take longer than anticipated, and the political environment across North America creates substantial uncertainty.
Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its monthly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
I was born too early to benefit much from Sesame Street, but I still loved The Muppets. Kermit the Frog was my favorite character; alternatively in full control and overwhelmed, Kermit struggled to make sense of the nonsensical. To this day, there are times that I feel confronted with the same challenge.
The U.S. economy has shifted into a lower gear, growth has been falling in the Eurozone, Brexit is festering and China is feeling the heat from internal imbalances and an elevated trade spat with the U.S.
The Economics team explores a smooth economic slowdown, elevated consumer confidence, and troubles in Italy.
The global economy looks set to move into a lower gear as both advanced and emerging economies will find it hard to extend their recent robust economic performance into 2019.
The World Trade Organization plays a crucial role in global trade. How essential is it, and what can we expect as trade tensions rise?
Until this year, the global economy had been characterized by three years of strong, synchronized growth with subdued inflation—the “not too hot, not too cold” characteristics of a “Goldilocks” economy. Though global growth is still relatively resilient, inflation risk is clearly on the rise, driven by high commodity prices and tight labor markets.
Reflecting on ten years since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy: Households have reduced their borrowing, but governments haven’t. Debates over the response to the financial crisis may never end. Non-bank lenders have thrived while managing their risks.
In the span of human history, retirement is a fairly new idea. Only a few generations ago, most of our ancestors could expect to work until the end of their lives. We are happy to report this is no longer the case. Improving longevity brings the opportunity for retirement, but also the responsibility for preparing. Unfortunately, many Americans have not handled this responsibility very well at all.
The Northern Trust economics team explores India, recaps revisions to U.S. economic measurements, and gauges potential future economic growth.
The economics team surveys a variety of upcoming events: Mexican elections this weekend, trade battles in the coming months, and LIBOR sunsetting in the years ahead.
Public debt may be growing at the expense of private debt, the Chinese bond market is opening up, and important dates for tariffs are fast approaching.
We’ve written about the American steel tariffs in each of the last two weeks. But there remain some important points to make on the topic of trade.
The White House has announced a new set of broad tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The measure is surprising in its scope, its targets and its break from the long-prevailing trends of international trade.