From base effects to bottlenecks, wages to pricing power, inflation questions abound.
Brexit negotiations had another unproductive week. Parcel shipping volumes are breaking records. And when and why might the Fed alter its asset purchases?
Recovery from COVID-19 has been a mix of successes and setbacks.
The Northern Trust Economics team reviews the outlook for developed markets facing COVID-19.
The 2020 election dims the outlook for major legislation and aid to local governments, while central banks face the risk of a liquidity trap.
Our election 2020 coverage begins with fiscal policy, security risks that are slowing foreign investment, and legislative standstills.
The Fed’s strategic review added to a bevy of policy research revealed last week.
The Fed’s new take on inflation was a long time coming, while Japan’s downturn drags on and U.S. housing stays strong.
The lodging industry illustrates a panoply of pandemic problems; and keeping people in their homes will be key to economic recovery.
Washington’s inaction on a fiscal deal and action on tariffs are both perplexing, while schools face complicated choices.
COVID-19 causes growth in government debt, liability risks, and stress for women.
How will our lives change during and after the pandemic? Let’s start with a look at education, medicine, automation, broadband access, city living and cash.
The U.S. and EU deliberate how to disburse aid, China’s recovery carries risks, and U.S. mortgage rates find a floor.
Automatic stabilizers prevented an economic breakdown, while trains are running empty and money stays parked.
The challenges keep mounting for global trade, unemployed workers, and banks.
More infections lead to more worry, while the commercial real estate and tourism sectors are put to the test.
Banks undergo a true stress test, smartphones measure movement, and poverty may rise.
Why did unemployment fall? Why is Brexit proceeding? And why did so much food go to waste?
Economic factors are motivating recent protests and changes to supply chains.
The absence of a “V-shaped” recovery means trouble for policy makers, mortgage finance, and emerging markets.
Will inflation soar? Will monetary policies work as intended, and what precedent are they setting?
China’s recovery and Mexico’s policy choices can be questioned, but the automotive sector’s slump is not in doubt.
SMEs and oil are feeling the demand decline, leading to calls for reopening businesses.
Policy measures to aid financial markets and labor forces through the crisis are wide-ranging.
Economic activity descended in an elevator and will climb back up on the stairs.
Many consumers entered the crisis with no cushion.
Relief efforts measured in trillions of dollars are bound to have some positive effect.
Growing policy responses reflect greater estimates of the costs of COVID-19.
Substantial fiscal policy is the best economic prescription for COVID-19.
We’ve been closely watching developments related to COVID-19 for the past several weeks. While we have hesitated to make significant changes to our outlook until evidence is clearer, we now expect the economic damage done by the outbreak will be more significant than initially thought.
Phase One: A limited deal is better than none.Inequality: We can’t manage what we can’t measure.Canada: Taking the lead with fiscal policy.
Rates were unpredictable, central banks were active, trade was volatile but consumers were undaunted. We reflect on the major economic trends of 2019.
Brexit and trade talks provided lots of uncertainty this year. Last week saw progress on both fronts.
In the bond market, staying positive is easier said than done.
China’s economy is slowing by any measure, while Australia’s central bank takes rates to record lows.
This week’s Fed meeting started a pause in overnight rate cuts. But what will happen if yields on the long end move up?
Testing times for relations in this challenging epoch.
Fed is set to ease, ECB eases and mortgage refinancing takes off.
What fueled the rise in U.S. employment, and can we sustain it?
Unrest in Hong Kong and limitations of monetary policy have no easy solutions.
What shifts from tariffs to currency mean in the US-China trade war.
This week the economics team discusses: Surveying fiscal conditions as the FOMC prepares to meet; Japan gets aggressive in trade with South Korea; and One less fiscal worry for the U.S.
Talks are back on, but success is far from assured.
Trade tensions are felt around the world. Cautious central banks and flat yields don't stop a rally in equities. And more observations from a busy half year.
China and Mexico thought they made progress toward U.S. trade deals. No longer.
Europeans went to the polls, and the results reveal continental divisions. U.S. businesses’ patience for tariffs won’t last. And what do tariffs do to prices?
Productivity growth is vital to the economy and for our well-being. We take a look at recent and long-run trends, marvel at the progress of artificial intelligence, and explore diverging growth among nations.
What’s next for trade talks with China and the U.S.?, Emerging markets face the middle-income trap, CECL provides more insurance for the financial system.
Wie Gehts mit Deutschland?; Jump-Starting U.S. Startups; Big Data Is Changing Inflation
Today’s government finances add to tomorrow’s problems; The strong U.S. dollar is a mixed blessing; Prisons are expensive for both taxpayers and inmates