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American Carnage?
A memorable part of President Trump's inaugural speech pointed to mothers and children trapped in poverty, rusted-out factories, a flawed school system, and crime and gangs and drugs. He described these problems as "American carnage" and stated emphatically that it "stops right here and stops right now."
Big Government Causes Slow Growth
Keynes thought a free market economy should be managed: in fact, needed to be managed. His ideas flourished in the 1930s when the US was in the Great Depression. Keynes believed that a lack of consumer demand was the culprit to economic problems and government should spend to boost jobs and economic activity.
Does Growth Kill or Is There No Growth?
Two weekend articles, in major US newspapers, left us shaking our heads. The Washington Post wrote that "economic growth actually kills people," while The Wall Street Journal published a piece saying, ironically, we should get used to slow growth - it's normal.
QE Is Not A Magic Elixir
In the Wild West, traveling salesmen sold Magic Elixirs that cured anything that ailed you. These days, the elixir is Quantitative Easing (QE) – it supposedly saved the world from Armageddon, lifted stock prices, drove down bond yields, and, according to at least one analyst, created the fracking boom.
Despite a Wimpy Fed, September Hike on the Table
Mark your calendars for a rate hike on September 21st. Today's statement was much more hawkish than the June statement and Esther George, the Kansas City Fed Bank President, hopped back on the dissent train in favor of hiking rates by 25 basis points at today's meeting.
Monday Morning Outlook
How many times does Chicken Little have to wrongly squawk before investors get it? Yes, payrolls increased just 38,000 in May, and yes, British voters opted for political independence from the European Union. And, yes, Stock markets swooned. But, they will likely hit new highs this week. Just another head fake, brought to you by the bad news bears.
Uncertainty Not All Bad
If you listen to elite policymakers around the globe, they all seem to agree on one thing: the need to avoid "uncertainty." In their thinking the battle against uncertainty is a never-ending struggle, and if only the world were more certain the economy would be doing much better.
Policy Stagnation
Back in the 1970s, President Jimmy Carter told us that we were just going to have to learn to live with less. The mood among establishment economists in the late 1970s was gloomy. The world was running out of oil; inflation was an odd phenomenon that was beyond our control. Sure, we could get lower unemployment, but only by letting inflation get even higher. Somehow, the US had lost its post-war economic mojo and just wasn't going to get it back.
Fed Projects Very Slow Path for Rate Hikes
At her post-meeting press conference Fed Chief Janet Yellen emphasized that it's important not to "overreact" to one or two reports on the economy. But that's exactly what the Fed did by refraining from raising rates at today's meeting and notably altering its projections for future rate hikes.
Why Does Japan Still Charge Taxes?
Investors often wonder why governments don't operate more like households, balancing their budgets year by year. Seems like good advice, right? If households can't live beyond their means forever, governments shouldn't either. But, what if your household could borrow for free? In other words, what if you were Japan!
Brexit Is Freedom
Earlier this year, NHL hockey fans were asked to vote for the captains of the four teams to face off in this year's new All-Star tourney. Three of the picks were players you'd expect: Jaromir Jagr from the Florida Panthers, Alex Ovechkin from the Washington Capitals, and Patrick Kane from the Chicago Blackhawks: True Gods of the Rink, who have scored hundreds of points.
Forget About Macy's
Two simple questions: How many times have you bought something at Macy's in the past month? How many times have you bought something through Amazon over the same timeframe? We're guessing the answer to the first questions is once...maybe, while the answer to the second question is so many times you can't keep track.
Job Report Overreaction
The more we look at Friday?s jobs report the more we?re wondering what so many other analysts are so worked up about. It was like the pessimists won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness at once. Trumpets, roses, and scare stories rocked many less informed investors. When so many stories are written that miss the most important points of economic reports and tilt toward a gloomy spin it?s hard to hear the truth through the noise.
Fed Nudges Toward a June Rate Hike
As we said back in March, mark your calendars for a rate hike on June 15. Today’s statement from the Federal Reserve signals that it intends to raise rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting, consistent with the projections it made in March that it would raise rates twice in 2016.
OPEC and the Ash Heap of History
Almost twenty-five years ago, President Reagan went to the British House of Commons and said “freedom and democracy will leave Marxism and Leninism on the ash heap of history.” Reagan chose his words carefully, using a phrase – the ash heap of history – very similar to the one used by the Russian Communist revolutionary Leon Trotsky against his political enemies. Within a decade, the Berlin Wall was no more and neither was the Soviet Union.
The Bears Get Excited Again
Since March 9, 2009, stock market bears have used every negative piece of economic data to argue their case. Last week they were hyperventilating over first quarter real GDP growth estimates. After recent inventory data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model said annualized growth will be just 0.1% in Q1. It could be zero, or even negative.
Don't Short the Participation Rate!
Last Friday was an interesting day. For years now, the US has consistently added jobs and the unemployment rate has steadily fallen. But, the Pouting Pundits of Pessimism keep arguing that a falling unemployment rate is only because of weak growth in the labor force.
Results 251–300
of 377 found.
