Lessons From China
What are the lessons that can be learned from observing the Chinese economy and U.S.–China relations? Sinology explores the takeaways from five topics including China’s approach to controlling COVID-19, its economic recovery and Washington’s misguided approach towards China.
Four China Trends
Four important trends are continuing in China: COVD-19 remains largely under control; the economy is in a V-shaped, post-COVID recovery, led by strong domestic demand; U.S.-China relations are tense and likely to worsen; but the political problems between Washington and Beijing should continue to have little impact on China's economy or its investment environment.
China on the Road to Recovery
China's economy was the first to suffer the consequences of fighting the novel coronavirus and is the first on the road to recovery. After an initial cover-up and more than 3,000 deaths, China appears to have brought COVID-19 under control and laid the foundation for a gradual economic recovery, although normal activity levels may not be reached until 2021.
Is China a Safe Haven?
After an initial cover-up and more than 3,000 deaths, China appears to have brought COVID-19 under control, just as the spread of the coronavirus is accelerating across the U.S. and Europe. With China's domestic-demand driven economy set to rebound and mainland investors avoiding the panic that has smacked western markets, its economy could put a floor under global growth and offer a safe haven to investors.
A Year of Living Less Dangerously
The publication this week of the U.S. — China trade deal and the final macro numbers for 2019 should set the stage for healthy economic performance and stronger market sentiment in China in 2020, but the risk of a return to tense relations between Washington and Beijing looms over 2021 and beyond.
A Disappointing Deal, and a Healthy Economy
President Trump called it “amazing,” and U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer said the China deal is “remarkable.” In my view, however, it is merely the best trade deal in the last 36 months of Chinese history, and it falls well short of two key objectives. Because the deal sets highly unrealistic goals for U.S. exports to China...
China's "Currency Manipulation"—A Sign of Panic or a Cunning Plan?
Over the past several months, there has been hype about the prospect of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) weakening past 7 per U.S. dollar, despite no evidence that 7 is a magical number. China's central bank, People's Bank of China (PBOC), had denied that it was focused on defending 7, and the IMF said it wasn't significant.
Chinese government economists in Beijing have indicated that, while they are prepared to intervene with stimulus if current conditions deteriorate, investors should not anticipate material changes to monetary and fiscal policy. Sinology takes a look at the latest China economic data.
The Chinese economy delivered many surprises in the first half of the year, disappointing (yet again) the pundits who predicted a hard landing. Macroeconomic data published over the weekend is consistent with a healthy economy, driven by impressive wage growth and consumer spending, and supported by strong earnings growth.