Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for November is 14.1, down from the previous month's 21. It is well below its all-time high of 25.1, set in May 2004.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns.
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Key takeaways include:
With the Q3 GDP Second Estimate and the November close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 181.4%, up from 171.7% the previous quarter.
My wife brought me a box of ornaments that my mother has given to us over the years. I decided to check what I could sell them for on eBay (EBAY). What a great way to look at what is going on in equity capital markets!
Wide performance dispersion underscores the importance of portfolio construction.
Note: This update includes November close data.
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index today's release which includes initial jobless claims through November 21, the Q3 Second Estimate of GDP, September Manufacturing and Trade, and October Personal Income.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
Today we have the ADP November estimate of 307K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, a decrease over the ADP revised October figure of 404K.
U.S. keg-beer manufacturing has been reeling this year as Covid-19 shuttered bars.
George Serafeim wants to revolutionize the way businesses calculate their success.
Tesla Inc. climbed on Tuesday as investors braced for the company’s addition to the S&P 500 in one shot on Dec. 21, a move that’s expected to spur as much as $70 billion worth of passive-fund flows.
As of November 30, the 10-year note is 32 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4.
The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for October, released last week, shows that core inflation is below the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 1.41%. The October Core Consumer Price Index release is higher at 1.61%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
I see four critical challenges for wealth managers arising from the pandemic.
Collecting client feedback doesn’t have to be a complex process.
As a result of the coronavirus, the advisory business model has changed precipitously, with two key trends driving this transformation…
It’s time to consider an entirely different approach to your process for converting prospects.
I want to formally plan and create enthusiasm for 2021. How can I manage this in a virtual setting?
With COVID-19 vaccines on the horizon, the longer-term economic outlook appears brighter.
Quick take: At the end of November the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 144% above its long-term trend, up from 135% the previous month.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
The “Investing in Opportunity Act” included in the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, passed in December 2017, introduced an innovative way to stimulate private investment in low-income communities. The program rewards investors with significant tax savings for their commitment of long-term investment capital. Join us for an in-depth educational presentation about Qualified Opportunity Zone Funds (QOZFs).
With the 2020 elections, we are hearing a lot about socialism. Many fear that, should the Democratic party sweep the White House and Senate, an inevitable march toward the US becoming a socialist country will begin.
Quick take: Based on the November S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 155% above its arithmetic mean and at the 100th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.
Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Are we in the beginning stages of another secular bear?
Zombies are firms that are neither dead or alive. They are in so much debt that virtually all their free cash is used to service their debt, and that is very damaging to GDP growth. This month, we explain why there are more and more zombies all over the world, and why they do immense damage to the global economy.
The new conventional wisdom in these unconventional times is that advanced-economy governments can take advantage of today's ultra-low interest rates to borrow and spend without limit in order to support the economy. But the fact is that there is always a limit, and it may come into view sooner than many realize.
Many have been puzzled that the world’s stock markets haven’t collapsed in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic downturn it has wrought. But with interest rates low and likely to stay there, equities will continue to look attractive, particularly when compared to bonds.
As of November 30, the price of Regular and Premium were up two and one cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for Regular at $3.19 and Texas has the cheapest at $1.78. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 45.34, up 5.3% from the last week.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for November. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 57.5, a decrease of 1.8 from 59.3 the previous month. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 58.0 percent.
The November US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 56.7, up 1.8 from the 53.4 final October figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Taxes matter and tax-managed investing can make a meaningful difference over the course of an investor's time horizon. The market volatility in 1Q2020 and other factors may make 2020 an especially challenging year for capital gain distributions. This paper discusses tactical and structural reasons why investors may want to consider taking advantage of market events and transitioning to tax-managed investing now and examines the potential benefits of opportunistic tax-loss harvesting. Act now to get ahead of this looming tax surprise.
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2020.
The S&P 500 closed November with a monthly gain of 10.75% after a loss of 2.77% in October. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — an increase from last month's triple"invested" signal.
Take advantage of the 2020 annual gift tax exclusion of up to $15,000 ($30,000 for joint filers), without incurring federal gift tax.
Four of eight indexes on our world watch list posted YTD gains through November 30, 2020. The top performer is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 12.1%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in second with a gain of 11.74% and in third is China's Shanghai with a gain of 11.2%. Coming in last is London's FTSE 100 with a loss of 16.92%.
Short Video on the Myths and Facts of 529 Gift Limits
President-elect Joe Biden wants to reverse the decades-long trend that has seen workers get an ever smaller piece of the economic pie.
The escalating coronavirus pandemic could reverse decades of gains in the fight against poverty, as U.S. government aid for the vulnerable dries up.
In December 2019, we made a year-end 2020 forecast of 3,650 for the S&P 500. With the index closing Friday at 3,638, that looks like a very good call.
Small-cap stocks have underperformed the broader markets since the “discovery” of the size premium in 1981. But research shows that a segment of those small-cap stocks have performed well and that now is a compelling time to invest in them.
To the extent that stock prices reflect expectations of future value, investors don’t like the prospects for oil, and oil’s demise signals muted prospects for economic growth.
The institutional investor’s role in the effort to combat climate change is misplaced.
We expect the municipal bond market to return to a sense of normalcy in 2021.
Equity price gains in Japan may be driven by innovation over the long term. Portfolio manager Shuntaro Takeuchi discusses the opportunity set.
After a difficult winter, we expect the global economy to rebound strongly next year. But structural headwinds remain. Will the post-pandemic bounce trigger a durable and broad-based global reflation?
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through October. The latest debt level is up 0.8% month-over-month.
We have recently written a couple of posts about the “exuberance” that has invaded the market since the election. Such is often seen near short- to intermediate-term peaks in markets as investors go “all-in” without a net.
This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for November. The latest general business activity index came in at 12, down 7.8 from 19.8 in October. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
