Three transformative trends will lead the world into a radically different macro environment over the secular horizon. Read our long-term outlook and implications to consider when investing.
Personal trading could undermine public trust in the Federal Reserve.
After beginning the quarter on a relatively upbeat note, familiar themes returned as fears of inflation, ambiguity over the end of the pandemic, and uncertainty about the future of Chinese capitalism raised concerns for investors.
Given record profit margins and valuations, there is little upside, especially if inflation remains problematic. Throw stagflation into the formula, and the outlook is bleak.
Global bond investors face an old enemy -- inflation -- and the universe of fixed-income assets doesn’t look to offer much in the way of shelter.
BlackRock Inc. said active investors have an opportunity to beat the market by digging deeper into information about the sustainability of companies.
Older borrowers will be among the hardest hit when student-loan payments resume for more than 40 million Americans after a pandemic freeze, according to research by Fidelity Investments Inc.
We touch on several bases today as we often do. We begin with the Fed which decided to start reducing its monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in November. This was not a surprise.
Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later.
Look forward to moderating inflation, 2% to 3% growth and full employment in 2022, according to Ben Bernanke.
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +8.3% (+21.0 billion vehicle miles) for August 2021 as compared with August 2020. Travel for the month is estimated to be 273.8 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.7% month-over-month and up 4.2% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.64% month-over-month and up 3.7% year-over-year.
In 2013, the mere mention by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) that the scaling back of asset purchases could be forthcoming caused significant short-term disruptions to the global financial markets. Currently, the Fed is once again poised to scale back its asset purchases as the US economy has recovered from the latest recession. Investors are concerned that a shift in Fed policy will have an outsized impact on markets.
We are in uncharted waters on many fronts, so no one can really answer that inflation/deflation question with any degree of certainty. We can however, look to the technical condition of commodity markets for guidance, since they have usually, acted as a barometer for more generalized swings in inflationary and deflationary pressures. Commodity prices look poised to signal a new secular bull market, which would likely broaden out to result in the highest more generalized inflation rates since the 1970’s.
The age of abundance has given way to an age of scarcity, while the pro-cyclical version of inflation may have given way to the counter-cyclical version.
With so many life-changing liquidity events on the horizon, charitably minded advisors would be well served to follow the same tax guidance they provide their clients and set up a DAF prior to the sale of their firm.
Advisors may have the most informative videos on their site, but it’s likely that few prospects will watch them.
What do you do with an intractable advisor?
Marketing occurs in the advisory profession in the absence of common sense. Here are five brazen misunderstandings shared by the readers of my articles.
Excerpts from Cerulli Associates' report on asset owner and manager perspectives when it comes to promoting diversity & inclusion.
New projections of the labor force growth rate by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics show the US labor force growth accelerating in the 2020s for the first time since the 1970s.
As of October 18, the price of Regular and Premium were up six and five cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.49 and Texas has the cheapest at $2.95. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 81.69, up 1.5% from last week and up 72% from the beginning of the year. Both gas prices and WTIC are at their highest levels since 2014.
We have entered the phase when the body politic and public opinion are aware that Facebook is disturbing our society. This is very important to us as investors, because the big tech companies make up a disproportionately large part of the S&P 500 Index.
Unilateralism is not a remedy for multilateral institutions.
Volatile, pandemic-riven markets for stocks and bonds has Wall Street ready — again — to declare the traditional 60/40 portfolio split a dead strategy. The prospect of a low-growth, high-inflation economy (stagflation) dims the prospects of both investment categories, and certainly demands a rethink of where to stash your savings.
Demand is so strong for green bonds, or debt that funds environmentally friendly projects, that investors are accepting lower yields for securities that are harder to trade, according to Barclays Plc.
The pandemic accelerated a trend that college deans and finance chiefs throughout the U.S. Midwest have been dreading: There are fewer 18-year-olds to fill classrooms, dorms and dining halls.
Here are five steps to adjust your professional networking skills for a post-pandemic world.
Leaving an established firm to go out on your own might solve some of your problems, but they will be replaced by a new host of obstacles and challenges.
In a society with a weak social safety net, homelessness is the inevitable result of exuberant real estate prices. Those living on the street are the indirect victims of loose monetary policy and low interest rates that foster high property and rental prices.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for September new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.555M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.680M and a 1.6% decrease from the previous month's 1.580M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for September new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.589M was down 7.7% from the August reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.680M.
If there was a word of the year for 2021, it would be “transitory.” Ever since the Fed declared that inflation would be transitory in March 2021, analysts have challenged that assertion and, indeed, have questioned the definition of transitory. Inflation has broad ramification for financial plans, since it affects interest rates, the price of assets and whether cash flows will be sufficient to keep pace with rising prices of goods and services. Here to discuss that question is James Montier, the co-author of two recent commentaries on the likelihood of transitory inflation and how investors should protect against various outcomes.
Seven out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through October 18, 2021. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 29.35%, France's CAC 40 is in second is with a gain of 20.21%, and our own S&P 500 is in third with a gain of 19.45%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 6.69%.
Politics today is in large part about pitting one group against another and convincing one side they've been treated unfairly. One of those groups is the younger generation of workers known as Millennials, who are supposedly up to their eyeballs in debt and lagging well behind prior generations.
Financial advisors face an industry in transition. Clients want more personalized, ongoing advice and financial planning support, not just a portfolio. And they want to see value in every advisor interaction to justify the fees they pay. Is outsourcing the most overlooked way to alleviate client-advisor strain?
The Fed's more hawkish stance at September’s FOMC meeting, rising upside inflation pressures, and near-term volatility drove Treasury yields higher at the end of the month.
While the surge in gas prices seems to have surprised the market, it’s been more than nine months in the making. Ryan McGrail discusses the factors behind the surge and what could happen next.
The media and the economics profession are treating inflation like it is a friendly puppy dog. They think you can take it out of its pen and play with it for a while. The popular theory is that you bring it out in a severe dip in economic activity and when the economy gets back on its feet, you kindly ask inflation to crawl back into its pen like any good puppy dog would do.
One of the most influential financial planning organizations I participate in doesn't officially exist.
Month-over-month nominal sales in September were up 0.74% and up 14% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.32% and were up 8.1% YoY.
Is the risk of a more significant correction over now that the expected 5% decline is complete? That was a hotly debated question after this past weekend’s newsletter supporting the idea of a reflexive rally into year-end.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 80 is up 4 from last month's 76.
Today's report on Industrial Production for September shows a 1.29% decrease month-over-month, which was worse than the Investing.com consensus of 0.2%. The year-over-year change is 4.62%, down from last month's YoY increase.
We have announced our Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q3 2021.
Recently there has been a backlash against ESG-based investing. Some of this backlash is on target; some of it is completely wrong. None of it, however, fully identifies the worst thing about the ESG industry.
New research shows that corporate bonds issued by companies with good ESG practices trade with smaller spreads. That is good for those companies, as it lowers their cost of capital. But it means that investors’ returns will be less than for non-green bonds.
Following the social unrest of 2020, the conversation around the importance of diversity, equity and inclusion (DE&I) in the workplace has become more prominent than ever.
The best-conceived marketing plans will be derailed if you allow yourself to be victimized by these two misconceptions.
We’re all familiar with inflation. But did you know there’s another form of inflation that’s just as corrosive on our purchasing power and yet is nearly impossible to measure? Read on to learn more.