Commentary

Collateral, Leverage, & Volatility: The What, How, & When To Invest

What to own, how to do so, and when are the most important questions investors face. In my article, I discuss how a framework of collateral, leverage, and volatility can be used to help answer them.

Commentary

Commoditizing My Framework For A New Paradigm

When it comes to investing it’s never different this time; nor, however, is it ever the same. This difficult-to-navigate paradox creates a scarcity of longevity. Today’s persistently low yield environment has upped the ante and put many marquis names out of business.

Commentary

Why Are We So Scared

I can’t seem to shake this sense that we live in a culture that’s scared. I see a number of signs across the economic, political, and investment landscapes that seem support this observation.Yet change is the essence of investing. Those who embrace it will survive. Those who don’t could perish from this business.

Commentary

Superforecasting A Bear Market

I apply some learned forecasting techniques from Superforecasting to the question of whether the U.S. will enter a bear market. I examined some data and devised a good base rate to start with given current conditions.

Commentary

The Opportunity Of Misplaced Inflation

The global economy is apparently facing a significant problem. Inflation’s gone missing! Central bankers can’t seem to stoke it no matter how deftly they act.

Commentary

Reflexivity Here In The Yield Curve & Everywhere

This is my brief exploration of George Soros's theory of reflexivity (a.k.a. complexity theory, complex adaptive system analysis, etc.). I simply see reflexivity everywhere and can't help but wonder if the yield curve inversion might be an instance of epic proportions.

Commentary

Cheap Fed Liquidity Forestalls Deleveraging & Entices Debt

The following is Part 3 in my journey to uncover the impact that the Fed plays in investment markets. Contrary to popular belief, the Fed does not create money. Rather, it provides cheap liquidity to banks. In a fiat currency regime, I believe, this forestalls deleveraging and encourages debt growth.

Commentary

Value Investing: Is Life Imitating Art?

Some of the investing "heavyweights" have been debating whether or not value investing is dead. I compile some of what's being discussed and can't help but wonder if this is an example of life imitating art.

Commentary

Disintegrated Thoughts: ECB Volatility, Business Building, Speculation, & Judo

For this post, I’d like to offer a few “Disintegrated Thoughts” on some things I’ve been thinking about in the investment markets. These include: The ECB and volatility deleveraging, Business building and ignoring valuations, Sticking up for “speculation” and Notes from the judo mat.

Commentary

Passive & Private Market Force, Ecology & Evolution

Central bankers catch a lot of flak these days. However, there are two dominant trends in the market place – increasing allocations towards passive and private market investment strategies – where this ire might be misplaced. What if these developments were merely part of the natural evolution of investment markets?