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SPONSORED: Consensus Expectations May Be Overestimating the Recovery Trajectory

The continuing threat posed by the coronavirus, necessitating ongoing social distancing, means it is hard to gauge how long the current economic disruption might last. Consequently, we believe consensus expectations may be overestimating the trajectory for improvement and that a return to a “normalized” environment may take longer than anticipated.

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SPONSORED Global Equities: Embracing Uncertainty

While times like these are challenging for investors, we believe they can also help sharpen conviction in underlying investments. We have not made any wholesale changes. With a longer-term approach to investing, we believe the fear of others will continue to present us with attractive opportunities.

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Secular Risk Creates New Opportunities in High Yield Bonds SPONSORED

A growing number of companies are facing secular risks that could impair their long-term growth prospects. While this trend poses challenges for many traditional issuers of high yield bonds, it is also creating a new generation of companies in the high yield market that offer attractive opportunities.

Video

Shopping for Potential in Latin America

T. Rowe Price equity analyst Paulina Amieva talks to management, suppliers, and customers in Mexico City.

Video

Gauging the Potential in Automated Trains

T. Rowe Price equity analyst Andrew Davis visits a busy Ohio train yard.

Article

Balancing Yield and Risk in a Changing World

Enhanced yield is still available – a selective and broad approach is key.

Video

Everybody Wins with Financial Wellness

Financially fit employees are happier, healthier, and more productive. Watch the video for the full story.

Commentary

Beneath the Noise, a Resilient Demand Trend and Clear Fed Plan

Available data point to real GDP growth of less than 1% in the second quarter, yet we are looking through the dip: core demand data have been firmer (watch June retail sales on Monday), and a Q2 inventory correction will likely be followed by current quarter re-stocking. The sharp upward adjustment in mortgage rates will not derail the housing recovery. The FOMC has provided substantial clarity, in our view, regarding the monetary policy path that it intends to follow if the economy evolves in line with its expectations.
Commentary

How Much Help from Housing?

We expect the ongoing recovery in new housing construction from unsustainably low levels to contribute roughly percentage point to real GDP growth this year, and emphasize the risks to the upside of this forecast. Imminent employment growth in housing-related industries will provide an important channel for secondary "multiplier" effects of the housing recovery. Applying recent house price increases to the entire stock of owner-occupied housing overstates their likely wealth effect on consumer spending.
Commentary

Fed Policy Update: Waiting for Clearer Criteria for Open-Ended Asset Purchases

The FOMC's shift from dates to economic conditions as the basis for policy rate guidance clarified the criteria for beginning rate hikes. The criteria for ceasing open-ended asset purchases are not clear, and may reflect not only the evolution of the labor market recovery but also concerns about financial stability and the size of the Fed's balance sheet. We expect the Fed to try to clarify these criteria in the months ahead. Asset purchases will end a "considerable time" before policy rate hikes commence, and rate hikes will commence before asset sales.
Commentary

Fed Balance Sheet Expands, Reward-Risk Clarity Fades

While the minutes of the October 23-24 FOMC indicated a lack of consensus regarding whether to initiate a new asset purchase program to replace the Maturity Extension Program (MEP) upon its year-end conclusion, we believe that the Committee will announce at the conclusion of its December 11-12 meeting that the Fed will begin open-ended purchases of Treasury securities at a pace close to the $45 billion per month in the MEP.
Commentary

Two Policy Instruments, Two Labor Market Thresholds

Despite understandable post-election focus on the resolution of the looming fiscal cliff, there is persistent interest in the conditions under which the FOMC will end the asset purchase program initiated in September ("QE3"). The economic projections and monetary policy expectations submitted for the September 12-13 FOMC meeting indicate that a consensus for rate hikes begins to build as the unemployment rate approaches 7.0%.
Commentary

Of Varied States: Cyclical, Storm-Tossed and Swing

The latest readings on employment growth and household formation show a firm underpinning for moderate growth, with the household sector gathering momentum toward the emergence of positive feedback loops. Despite the immense human cost of Superstorm Sandy, the adverse impact on measured economic activity is likely to be short-lived, with a compensating rebound to emerge before quarter-end. Next week's general election results should bring clarity to the route that policy makers will take to avoid the year-end fiscal cliff.
Commentary

Not by Housing Recovery Alone

Strong August-September housing starts are a clear bricks-and-mortar response to reports of rising buyer traffic, confirming a broad-based cyclical recovery in new housing construction. This trend will contribute 0.4 percentage points (pp) to real GDP growth directly through in construction activity, and perhaps another 0.2 pp indirectly through the consumer purchases of those newly employed in housing-related industries and via wealth effects related to the nascent recovery in house prices.
Commentary

The United States: Stability or Complacency?

The International Monetary Fund's updated World Economic Outlook foresees a modest pace of U.S. economic expansion in 2012-2013, emphasizing significant downside risks emanating from the euro area crisis and from the domestic fiscal cliff. Weakness in the euro area and slower growth in a secularly-restructuring Chinese economy are weighing on U.S. export trends, but sturdier growth in Canada and Mexico is providing an important offset.