Commentary

MacroView: The Next “Minsky Moment” Is Inevitable

In 2007, I was at a conference where Paul McCulley, who was with PIMCO at the time, was discussing the idea of a “Minsky Moment.” At that time, this idea fell on “deaf ears” as the markets, and economy, were in full swing. However, it wasn’t too long before the 2008 “Financial Crisis” brought the “Minsky Moment” thesis to the forefront.

Commentary

SOTM 2020: State Of The Markets

In the President’s “State of the Union Address” on Tuesday, he used the podium to talk up the achievements in the economy and the markets. While it certainly is a laundry list of items he can claim credit for, it is the claim of record-high stock prices that undermines the rest of the story. Let me explain.

Commentary

The Fed’s View Of Valuations May Be Misguided

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve concluded their January “FOMC” meeting and released their statement. Overall, there was not much to get excited about, as it was virtually the same statement they released at the last meeting. However, Jerome Powell made a comment which caught our attention...

Commentary

Yes, Rates Are Still Going To Zero

The trouble currently is that global short-term interest rates are still close to, or below zero, and cannot be cut much more, which has deprived central banks of their main lever if a recession strikes.

Commentary

The Fed Won’t Avert The Next “Crisis,” They Will Cause It.

The problem with low interest rates for so long is they have encouraged the misallocation of capital. We see it everywhere throughout the entirety of the financial system from consumer debt, to subprime auto-loans, to corporate leverage, and speculative greed.

Commentary

Comparison & The Role Your Advisor Should Play

Comparison-created unhappiness and insecurity is pervasive, judging from the amount of spam touting everything from weight-loss to plastic surgery. The basic principle seems to be that whatever we have is enough, until we see someone else who has more. Whatever the reason, comparison in financial markets can lead to remarkably bad decisions.

Commentary

The Next Decade: Valuations & The Destiny Of Low Returns

The 2020 Decade: Valuations & The Destiny Of Low Returns. As we enter into a new decade, investors have become complacency with high rates of return on stocks. However, what is the likelihood the next decade will deliver the same.

Commentary

7-Difficult Trading Rules To Follow In Bull Markets

As we wrap up the decade. it is a good time to review the 7-impossible trading rules to follow in a bull market. These rules are not new, or unique, but they are the foundation of long-term investing success.

Commentary

Market & Investing Wisdoms For 2020

As we wave goodbye to the bull market of the 2010s, here are the rules for investing in whatever comes in the next decade.

Commentary

The Stock Market Has Become A Private Club For The Elite

Despite Central Bank’s best efforts globally to stoke economic growth by pushing asset prices higher, the effect has been entirely consumed by those with actual savings, and discretionary income, available to invest.

Commentary

“The Art Of The Deal” & How To Lose A “Trade War.”

Not only did the tariffs get delayed, but on Friday, it was reported that China and the U.S. reached “Phase One” of the trade deal, which included “some” tariff relief and agricultural purchases.

Commentary

Democrats Stop Worrying & Learn To Love Deficits

The current path we are on is unsustainable. The remedies being applied today is akin to using aspirin to treat cancer. Sure, it may make you feel better for the moment, but it isn’t curing the problem.

Commentary

The Myth Of The “Great Cash Hoard” Of 2019

While the bulls are certainly hoping the “cash hoard” will flow into U.S. equities, the reality may be quite different.

Commentary

Earning Season’s Good, Bad & Ugly

With the third quarter of 2019 reporting season mostly behind us, we can take a look at what happened with earnings to see what’s real, what’s not, and what it will mean for the markets going forward.

Commentary

The Most Important & Overlooked Economic Number

What's the most important economic number? GDP, Employment, claims....nope....those are all lagging indicators. If you want to know where you are headed look at the 85-component CFNAI. Here's why.