Commentary

Technically Speaking: Forward Returns Continue To Fall

One of the interesting aspects of “bull markets” is the further they go, the lower forward returns fall.

Commentary

#MacroView: No, Bonds Aren’t Overvalued. They’re A Warning Sign.

There has been much commentary suggesting bonds have gotten overvalued due to historically low rates.

Commentary

Low Future Returns Requires A “Real” Bear Market

When there is a discussion of low future returns due to valuations, what gets missed is that such requires a bear market.

Commentary

#MacroView: Siegel On Why Stocks Could Rise 30%

During a recent CNBC interview, Jeremy Siegel suggested stocks could rise another 30% before the boom ends.

Commentary

There Is No Way This Bull Market Doesn’t End Very Badly

There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly.

Commentary

#Fundamentally Speaking: Earnings Optimism Explodes

As markets surge to record highs, analysts are rushing to ratchet up earnings estimates as optimism explodes.

Commentary

March Jobs Report – Millions Missing From The Roles

Recently, the March jobs report showed a whopping 916,000 new jobs.

Commentary

Survey Of Retail Investors Shows The Blind Lead The Blind

In retail investing, do the “blind lead the blind? Such was a question I asked recently about young investors who are “Long Confidence And Short Experience.”

Commentary

Biden’s Stimulus Will Cut Poverty By 40% – For One Year.

Commentary

#MacroView: Could A “Transaction Tax” Be A Good Thing?

I recently discussed why “Free, Isn’t Really Free” regarding the retail investor. While “free trades” have certainly reduced the transaction costs, the selling of data to the highest bidder has likely cost investors more than they saved.

Commentary

The Fed Has Forced Investors To Take On Excess Risk

Since the “Financial Crisis,” the hope was that inflating asset prices would trickle down into economic growth.

Commentary

Payment For Order Flow & The Fleecing Of The Retail Investor

The fleecing of retail investors continues as “payment for order flow” expands.

Commentary

Retail Investors Are Long Confidence And Short Experience

In a “market mania,” retail investors are generally “long confidence” and “short experience” as the bubble inflates. While we often believe each “time” is different, it rarely is. It is only the outcomes that are inevitably the same.

Commentary

Sugar Rush! Why The Economy Will Run Hot, Then Crash

The expected “sugar rush” from more stimulus is why the economy will “run hot” then crash. As every parent knows, giving a child too much “sugar” leads to a “rush” of energy. Then comes the crash, where you find them in some odd place taking a nap.

Commentary

Powell Changes The Rules On QE

The markets took a tumble to start this week as rising interest rates and inflationary pressures begin to weigh on outlooks. Those worries quickly diminished as Jerome Powell changed the rules to reassure Wall Street that “QE” is here to stay.