Commentary

Weekly Market Snapshot

The economic calendar was thin. Investors remained concerned about rising cases of COVID-19. A return to a full lockdown appears unlikely, but the pace of improvement in the economy is expected to slow.

Commentary

Government Budgets

The U.S. Treasury is expected to announce a June budget shortfall of about $863 billion, bringing the 12-month total to nearly $3 trillion (or about 14% of pre-pandemic GDP). The red ink will continue. Lawmakers are expected to approve another round of federal stimulus later this month. None of that is worth losing sleep over.

Commentary

June Employment Report (and other recent data)

The June job market report and other indicators remained consistent with an unprecedented steep drop in economic activity in March and April, followed by a sharp-but-partial rebound in May and June. Many of these data were collected before the recent surge in COVID-19 cases.

Commentary

Weekly Market Snapshot

It’s all about the pandemic. Rising cases in a number of states fueled fears of a second wave of infections and a more protracted economic recovery.

Commentary

Mixed Results in June; Tech Stocks Continue to Outperform

As states ease their COVID-19 lockdown measures, rising case numbers have put pressure on equity markets.

Commentary

Economy Experiencing a Strong Initial Rebound; What Follows?

The initial economic rebound seen in recent weeks won’t bring us back to pre-pandemic levels, explains Chief Economist Scott Brown. “A full recovery will take time.”

Commentary

Mid-2020, the Economic Impact of the Pandemic

Efforts to contain the coronavirus have had a major impact on the global economy. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the outlook, which has three elements. First, there was a sharp decline U.S. Gross Domestic Product in 2Q20. Second, there was a sharp-but-partial rebound off the lows in May. Third, improvement after the initial rebound will slow, barring a vaccine or effective treatment for COVID-19...

Commentary

Pardon Me, Myth...

In her recent book, “The Deficit Myth,” Stephanie Kelton, a professor at Stony Brook University, writes about many of the common misperceptions surrounding government debt and deficits.

Commentary

Weekly Investment Strategy

Tomorrow is the summer solstice, the longest day of the year and the official start to summer! For those who are still fortunate enough to travel with friends and family this year, the trip may look a little different than usual given ongoing restrictions and social distancing guidelines still in effect.

Commentary

The Expansion is Dead, Long Live the Recovery

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has formally declared that a recession began in February. The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest on record (at least back to 1854). Economic data reports should suggest that the downturn may have ended in April. That doesn’t mean everything is okay.

Commentary

Weekly Investment Strategy

  • Robust Recovery Is The General ‘School Of Thought’
  • Investors Hope A Second Wave Is ‘The Road Not Taken’
  • Valuations Require Investors To ‘Put Their Thinking Caps On’
Commentary

Stocks’ Rally Hits Roadblock With Worst Drop Since Mid-March

Equities suffered a heavy single-day decline amid rising jobless claims and continued coronavirus concerns.

Commentary

Weekly Market Snapshot

Stock market participants remained optimistic about the economy, further encouraged by a surprisingly strong employment report for May. Bond yields moved above their recent range.

Commentary

Weekly Investment Strategy

This week marked the 50th trading day since its March 23 low, with the S&P 500 rallying ~40% —the best 50 day rally since 1932. While the index has recovered ~85% of its virus-induced losses, there is still a distance to go, and if you are like me, the further the race goes, the more challenging it gets and the slower I advance. 

Commentary

The Surprising May Employment Report

In contrast to expectations of further deterioration, the May Employment Report suggested significant improvement in labor market conditions. No doubt, the economy has turned the corner as states have re-opened.