Commentary

Treasury Auction Results Spark Drop in U.S. Stock Prices

Despite the recent weakness in equities, Raymond James CIO Larry Adam expects positive stock growth over the next 12 months.

Commentary

The Inflation Outlook, Part 2

The details of the January Producer Price Index showed a further surge in prices of raw materials. Breakeven inflation rates (the yield spread between inflation-adjusted Treasuries and fixed-rate Treasuries) have continued to move higher.

Commentary

The Inflation Outlook

For a variety of reasons, many investors are worried about higher inflation. While we may see reflation (a pickup in prices that were restrained due to the pandemic), a significant increase in underlying inflation appears unlikely.

Commentary

Weekly Investment Strategy

  • Rescue package isn’t the one & only deal expected
  • Still smitten with emerging market equities
  • The health care sector still has our heart
Commentary

The Job Market Outlook

The U.S. economy lost 2.77 million jobs in the initial estimate for January, which is on par with what we saw a year ago (-2.79 million). Seasonally adjusted, this was recorded as a 49,000 gain (with private-sector payrolls up just 6,000).

Commentary

Weekly Market Snapshot

With the previous week’s short-squeeze headlines behind us, investors remained optimistic about a fiscal support package, which passed the Senate by a vote of 51-50, with Vice President Harris breaking the tie.

Commentary

Volatility Spikes; First Monthly S&P 500 Loss Since October

February begins with a stack of important economic scorecards. Among them are the last of the fourth-quarter corporate earnings reports, last week’s assessment of the 2020 gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment figures, consumer spending, as well as all the other regular reports that give us a snapshot of our recent economic history.

Commentary

GDP

Real GDP rose at a 4.0% annual rate in the advance estimate for 4Q20, a much more moderate pace of recovery than was seen in the third quarter. Details were mixed, but consumer spending showed a significant loss of momentum and monthly figures reflected weakness in November and December.

Commentary

The Fiscal Policy Outlook

As expected, the new administration has hit the ground running. In his first two days in office, President Biden issued executive orders which rescinded a number of previous directives or were aimed at ending the pandemic and easing the pandemic’s economic impact.

Commentary

The Inflation Outlook

Judging by recent phone calls and email queries, inflation is a serious concern among investors this year.

Commentary

Weekly Market Snapshot

For stock market participants, weak economic data has often been taken as a positive, since that implies more fiscal stimulus. However, investors have grown more concerned about possible stumbling blocks. Democratic majorities in the House and Senate are very narrow, some lawmakers are worried about running up the debt, and the window for bipartisan agreement may be short.

Commentary

10 Themes That Will Affect Your 2021 Investing

What can investors expect this year? Positive (but unsteady) economic growth, a powerful boost in earnings and continued success for information technology stocks, says Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.

Commentary

The December Employment Report (and other stuff)

The December Employment Report reflected an impact from the pandemic surge and further job losses in state and local government, but wasn’t bad otherwise.

Commentary

Economists Expect a Strong Showing in Second Half of 2021

Raymond James Chief Economist Dr. Scott Brown reflects on the trials and tribulations of 2020 and discusses his outlook for the new year.

Commentary

The Pandemic’s Impact on the Season

The holiday shopping season is critical for most retailers. For some, the season is make or break for the whole year. The November retail sales report was weaker than expected, although amplified by the seasonal adjustment. No surprise, consumers are increasingly shopping online.