Commentary

Weekly Investment Strategy

Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.

Commentary

A Slowing Recovery

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions.

Commentary

The August Employment Report in Perspective

Private–sector payrolls rose by 1.027 million in the initial estimate for August. Normally, such a gain would be considered outstanding. However, in this recovery, that comes as a disappointment.

Commentary

S&P 500 Climbs Over 7% in August, Attains New All-Time High

Led by technology and large-cap companies, the S&P 500 is on pace to post its best summer performance in over 80 years.

Commentary

Weekly Investment Strategy

Key Takeaways

  • Worst quarter of growth may be followed by the best
  • More records in store for the equity market
  • Highs and lows for oil while gold soars on uncertainty
Commentary

Weekly Market Snapshot

The Fed updated its monetary policy framework, moving to a flexible average inflation target. That means that the central bank will target an average inflation rate of 2% (as measured by the PCE Price Index) over time.

Commentary

Weekly Investment Strategy

While a panoramic view of broader economic and market developments will always be a crucial shot when constructing our outlook, sometimes it is important for us to bring certain sectors into focus.

Commentary

Weekly Market Snapshot

In the minutes of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, participants expected no change in policy rates anytime soon, but officials saw a need for more clarity regarding the likely path, such as adopting output-based forward guidance.

Commentary

Weekly Market Snapshot

Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell below one million for the first time since mid-March (20 weeks). However, unadjusted claims had already dipped below that level a week earlier. Unadjusted claims totaled 831,000.

Commentary

In Review

The overall economic outlook depends on the virus, efforts to contain it, and the degree of fiscal support. We’ve had a sharp- but-partial rebound in May and June, following a steep decline in March and April. The pace of improvement is expected to moderate. The impact of the pandemic has not been felt evenly.

Commentary

Weekly Investment Strategy

This upcoming Wednesday is National Aviation Day, a holiday established by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in order to honor the birthday of Orville Wright—inventor of the first airplane. While it’s hard to believe we’ve had the ability to fly for more than 115 years, it is even harder to comprehend the havoc that the COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked on the airline industry.

Commentary

The July Employment Report and the State of the Recovery

Nonfarm payrolls rose about as expected in the initial estimate for July, even as economists’ forecasts were widespread and risks to their job outlooks were generally seen to the downside. The unemployment rate fell a bit more than anticipated, but labor force participation stalled.

Commentary

Weekly Investment Strategy

The pandemic has undoubtedly brought about a number of challenges for investors, but constructing a well-founded economic outlook and identifying opportunities in the midst of this unprecedented time are “always on my mind.” Until we can announce that COVID-19 ‘has left the building,’ our team will strive to do exactly that.

Commentary

Second Quarter GDP Reflects Early Pandemic Response

The U.S. economy contracted 9.5% through the second quarter, the worst single-quarter decline in gross domestic product (GDP) since the Commerce Department started tracking it in 1947. It was expected the report would show a dip, but it’s important to recognize what that dip represents.

Commentary

The GDP Arithmetic

Real GDP was reported to have fallen at a 32.9% annual rate in 2Q20. Nobody should have been surprised by that. Component data had already indicated massive and broad-based weakness and most economists’ estimates fell in the -30% to -35% range. News reports had generally implied that the downturn was ongoing. That’s clearly not that case...