Coming into Focus
In his latest memo, Howard Marks walks readers through the unusual characteristics of this year’s economy; the impact of Covid-related monetary and fiscal policy actions, including low interest rates, on today’s markets; and the possible ramifications of the Fed/Treasury’s rescue efforts. What does it all mean for investors who face an environment marked by some of the lowest prospective returns in history?
Time for Thinking
Several months into the Covid-19 era, Howard Marks takes a step back to consider the global health crisis, the economic fallout and the U.S.’s response to date. He also shines light on how one might – or might not – view the current circumstances in the framework of a market cycle.
The Anatomy of a Rally
U.S. stocks have managed a remarkable advance in the past several weeks as optimism outweighed concerns about the economic recovery and worsening Covid-19 cases. Has this been appropriate or irrational? Howard Marks shares his thoughts on the recent rally in asset prices in his latest memo.
It is imperative that all Americans see recent events around racial inequality as a call for action and work to ensure equality for people of color. In his latest memo, Howard Marks shares his thoughts and pledges to heed this call.
True expertise is scarce and limited in scope. Howard Marks’s Uncertainty II — a postscript to his recent memo Uncertainty — explains why we should be careful about the “experts” we listen to and the weight we assign to their pronouncements.
In investing, uncertainty is a given – how we deal with it will be critical. Read Howard Marks’s latest memo, in which he discusses the value of understanding the limitations of our foresight and “investing scared.”
Knowledge of the Future
Read Howard Marks's latest memo, in which he discusses the notion of making informed guesses regarding the future and shares his questions about re-opening the U.S. economy and the latest Federal Reserve moves to help the economy combat the coronavirus.
The most important thing for an investor is to set the right balance between offense and defense. Today Howard Marks no longer feels defense should be favored. Find out why in his latest memo, Calibrating, in which he describes the importance of positioning portfolios in response to the environment.
Which Way Now?
How should investors think about the economy and asset values when faced with unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the effects of the coronavirus and a complete absence of guidance from analogies to the past? Read Howard Marks’s latest memo, in which he lays out the views of both the optimist and the worrier.
After giving our clients a few days to digest it, we’d like to share this memo from Thursday with all of our readers. We hope you’ll find it helpful.
Nobody Knows II
Many questions – and few answers – surround the coronavirus epidemic and its implications for financial markets. Read Howard Marks’s latest memo, in which he shares his own questions, guesses, observations and inferences to help make sense of the potential impact of the virus on global economies and markets.
What really is a bet? How does one make decisions under uncertainty and with imperfect information? In his latest memo, Howard Marks weaves his own life story to discuss the process of thinking in bets, parses the world of gambling, and draws parallels between investing and games of chance.
Negative interest rates are nothing short of a mystery; they’re likely to throw off whatever we knew about the financial world and how things worked in the past. With more than $17 trillion of global debt trading at nominal yields below zero — and about double when considering inflation — this phenomenon has prompted differing perspectives about its purpose and consequences. Howard Marks offers his in this memo, in which he discusses why negative rates have become prevalent, what implications they might have, whether they will reach the U.S., and what investors can do as they navigate these uncharted waters.
On the Other Hand
Expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates has been a primary factor driving investor sentiment and actions in recent months. It should be noted, though, that the considerations and actions of the Fed are part of a complex ecosystem that has financial, political and behavioral components that come with considerable uncertainty.
This Time It’s Different
In good times, we often see the notion "this time it's different" work its way into the marketplace as investors seek to rationalize higher asset prices and continued upward movement. Today this sentiment is expressed in contexts ranging from questioning the prospect of a recession altogether to supporting the high valuations of tech companies despite their current profitless state. In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the outlook for nine such theories. It would truly have to be different this time around for them to hold.