Commentary

Northern Trust Capital Market Assumptions Five-Year Outlook: 2021 Edition

In recent years, global equities had slightly outpaced market forecasts for lower equity returns. Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy, putting an end to the 10-year bull market. Equity markets have now started to recover, but the pandemic introduced and exacerbated challenges that we expect to subdue financial market returns over the next five years.

Commentary

Inflation Outlook Stays Low, National Champions In Favor, Unemployment Rate Surprises

Breakout inflation is not our top concern. Europe explores support for national champions, and the U.S. unemployment rate masks some fragility.

Commentary

Recovering, but Not Recovered

The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts the U.S. economy’s recovery from COVID-19.

Commentary

Monetary Policy Research Review, Emerging Markets At Risk, Complicated Measurements

The Fed’s strategic review added to a bevy of policy research revealed last week.

Commentary

Monetary Policy Research Review, Emerging Markets At Risk, Complicated Measurements

The Kansas City Fed’s annual Monetary Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole is a signature event for those of us who follow central banks. The conference typically doesn’t generate much front-page news: the subject matter is usually more technical and conceptual than a broad audience would appreciate. But 2020 is not a typical year.

Commentary

The Fed’s New View on Inflation, Japan’s Struggles, and Housing’s Health

The Fed’s new take on inflation was a long time coming, while Japan’s downturn drags on and U.S. housing stays strong.

Commentary

Hotel Blues, Eviction Risk, and Argentina’s Debt Dealings

The lodging industry illustrates a panoply of pandemic problems; and keeping people in their homes will be key to economic recovery.

Commentary

Fiscal Negotiations Stuck, Metal Tariffs Return, and Schools Make Hard Choices

Washington’s inaction on a fiscal deal and action on tariffs are both perplexing, while schools face complicated choices.

Commentary

U.S. Economic Outlook, August 2020: Healing

The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts the U.S. economy’s recovery from a record-breaking decline.

Commentary

Government Debt Grows, Liability Risks Rise, and Women Shoulder the Burden

COVID-19 causes growth in government debt, liability risks, and stress for women.

Commentary

How COVID-19 Will Change Our Daily Lives

How will our lives change during and after the pandemic? Let’s start with a look at education, medicine, automation, broadband access, city living and cash.

Commentary

The Role of Gold; A Less Than Perfect Inflation Hedge.

Gold has been on a tear over the last year, rising 32% while global equities have languished. A common objective of gold is to hedge against some type of risk. This paper shows how gold can reduce downside risk during big down markets, but isn’t the most effective inflation hedge.

Commentary

How to Aid States, China Recovers from COVID-19, Mortgage Rates Falling Slowly

The U.S. and EU deliberate how to disburse aid, China’s recovery carries risks, and U.S. mortgage rates find a floor.

Commentary

Automatic Stabilizers, Public Transit, and Money Supply React to COVID-19

Automatic stabilizers prevented an economic breakdown, while trains are running empty and money stays parked.

Commentary

Growth Prospects and Challenges Ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan

The first wave of the economic recovery has generally exceeded expectations, but the recent surges in COVID-19 cases could deliver a setback.