Commentary

A Quest for Clarity

Once again, no one cares about the economic calendar. There have been big changes with more to come. While many claim to know what those changes will be, I see only speculation.

Commentary

A Pundit’s Paradise – Anyone Can Play

We have a full economic calendar. Only the FOMC decision will get major market attention. Initial jobless claims provide a post-virus look at the job market. Housing data remains interesting. Despite this, the media focus will remain on the coronavirus crisis.

Commentary

Why it is Crucial to Use the Right Time Frame

We have a modest economic calendar. Only two reports will provide any hint about the coronavirus economic impact. The punditry will not be hampered. Without meaningful data, speculation blossoms. There is one idea that could help both your interpretation of data and your investment decisions.

Commentary

Should Investors Heed the Message of the Markets?

We have a big economic calendar featuring employment news and the latest ISM survey. In normal times, observers would be parsing the data to adjust their economic and earnings expectations. Next week few will care. The market ignored last week’s reports and there is no reason to expect a change to “old news.”

Commentary

Investors Can Always Learn Something from Mr. Buffett

We have a big economic calendar including important data on consumer confidence, personal income and spending, and inflation. There will also be another round of housing news – two measures of prices, new home sales, and pending home sales. While it is not expected to change, the second estimate of Q4 GDP will be reported.

Commentary

Is It Time to Worry About Inflation?

The substantial economic calendar features inflation reports and housing, but also includes Michigan sentiment, the Fed’s Beige Book, and NFIB sentiment survey. We will also get the first earnings reports for the Q4 season.

Commentary

Does Historical Analysis Improve Market Forecasts?

The economic calendar is normal in another week split by a holiday. Many market participants will not show up until Thursday – and perhaps not even then. The ISM reports, manufacturing and non-manufacturing, are both post-holiday. My guess is that the financial media will continue the attention to 2020 outlook ideas. Some reporters will take a look instead at events from the past decade.

Commentary

Are Investors Too Complacent?

The economic calendar is very light and interrupted by the mid-week holiday. We can always see volatility when volume is low, but many market participants will be on an extended holiday. This includes much of the A-team punditry, but someone will be left to fill the airtime.

Commentary

Whose Year-Ahead Vision is 20/20?

The economic calendar is especially important. Several housing reports, JOLTs, and the final estimate for Q3 GDP lead the list. Despite this, I suspect a powerful draw from the Gregorian calendar. It is time for those annual forecasts!

Commentary

Weighing the Week Ahead: All Eyes on Black Friday

The economic calendar is loaded with data and we have a holiday-shortened week. In some circumstances the many economic reports and the Washington stories would dominate. This week the market and economic context suggests a different theme.

Commentary

Is It Time to Worry about Debt?

The economic calendar is normal with a focus on housing. Some will be parsing the Fed minutes while others watch the impeachment hearings. This week’s topic may not be a media focus for the week ahead, but it gets constant attention. With a government shutdown and the debt ceiling on the agenda, let’s seize the moment and ask: Is it time to worry about debt? I suspect that many readers believe it is way past time!

Commentary

Weighing the Week Ahead: A Time for Investors to Act

The economic calendar is a light one in sharp contrast to last week’s. That was a good time to observe the market reaction to a wide range of news. Now is the time for investors to use the information.

Commentary

Weighing the Week Ahead: Earnings Season Opportunity?

The economic calendar is a modest one featuring home sales and Michigan sentiment. With the Q3 earnings reporting season in full swing, that news rates to be more important than the economic reports.

Commentary

Weighing the Week Ahead: Is Falling Confidence a Threat to Markets?

The economic calendar is more important than usual. There is an emphasis on housing data as well as reports on leading indicators, industrial production, and regional Fed surveys. The most important story of the week will be the Fed’s Wednesday rate decision.

Commentary

Weighing the Week Ahead: Is it Time to Worry about Crowded Trades?

The economic calendar is normal with an emphasis on the consumer. Both PPI and CPI data will be reported, but little change is expected. Central bank fans will have to make do with the ECB Thursday announcement.