A Quest for Clarity
Once again, no one cares about the economic calendar. There have been big changes with more to come. While many claim to know what those changes will be, I see only speculation.
A Pundit’s Paradise – Anyone Can Play
We have a full economic calendar. Only the FOMC decision will get major market attention. Initial jobless claims provide a post-virus look at the job market. Housing data remains interesting. Despite this, the media focus will remain on the coronavirus crisis.
Why it is Crucial to Use the Right Time Frame
We have a modest economic calendar. Only two reports will provide any hint about the coronavirus economic impact. The punditry will not be hampered. Without meaningful data, speculation blossoms. There is one idea that could help both your interpretation of data and your investment decisions.
Should Investors Heed the Message of the Markets?
We have a big economic calendar featuring employment news and the latest ISM survey. In normal times, observers would be parsing the data to adjust their economic and earnings expectations. Next week few will care. The market ignored last week’s reports and there is no reason to expect a change to “old news.”
Investors Can Always Learn Something from Mr. Buffett
We have a big economic calendar including important data on consumer confidence, personal income and spending, and inflation. There will also be another round of housing news – two measures of prices, new home sales, and pending home sales. While it is not expected to change, the second estimate of Q4 GDP will be reported.
Is It Time to Worry About Inflation?
The substantial economic calendar features inflation reports and housing, but also includes Michigan sentiment, the Fed’s Beige Book, and NFIB sentiment survey. We will also get the first earnings reports for the Q4 season.
Does Historical Analysis Improve Market Forecasts?
The economic calendar is normal in another week split by a holiday. Many market participants will not show up until Thursday – and perhaps not even then. The ISM reports, manufacturing and non-manufacturing, are both post-holiday. My guess is that the financial media will continue the attention to 2020 outlook ideas. Some reporters will take a look instead at events from the past decade.
Are Investors Too Complacent?
The economic calendar is very light and interrupted by the mid-week holiday. We can always see volatility when volume is low, but many market participants will be on an extended holiday. This includes much of the A-team punditry, but someone will be left to fill the airtime.
Whose Year-Ahead Vision is 20/20?
The economic calendar is especially important. Several housing reports, JOLTs, and the final estimate for Q3 GDP lead the list. Despite this, I suspect a powerful draw from the Gregorian calendar. It is time for those annual forecasts!
Weighing the Week Ahead: All Eyes on Black Friday
The economic calendar is loaded with data and we have a holiday-shortened week. In some circumstances the many economic reports and the Washington stories would dominate. This week the market and economic context suggests a different theme.
Is It Time to Worry about Debt?
The economic calendar is normal with a focus on housing. Some will be parsing the Fed minutes while others watch the impeachment hearings. This week’s topic may not be a media focus for the week ahead, but it gets constant attention. With a government shutdown and the debt ceiling on the agenda, let’s seize the moment and ask: Is it time to worry about debt? I suspect that many readers believe it is way past time!
Weighing the Week Ahead: A Time for Investors to Act
The economic calendar is a light one in sharp contrast to last week’s. That was a good time to observe the market reaction to a wide range of news. Now is the time for investors to use the information.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Earnings Season Opportunity?
The economic calendar is a modest one featuring home sales and Michigan sentiment. With the Q3 earnings reporting season in full swing, that news rates to be more important than the economic reports.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is Falling Confidence a Threat to Markets?
The economic calendar is more important than usual. There is an emphasis on housing data as well as reports on leading indicators, industrial production, and regional Fed surveys. The most important story of the week will be the Fed’s Wednesday rate decision.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is it Time to Worry about Crowded Trades?
The economic calendar is normal with an emphasis on the consumer. Both PPI and CPI data will be reported, but little change is expected. Central bank fans will have to make do with the ECB Thursday announcement.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Feedback Alter Trump’s Course?
The economic calendar is significant, but fundamentals are taking a secondary role. The Friday Presidential tweetstorm raised uncertainty on trade, the global economy, Fed policy, taxes, and traditional alliances. Attention now turns to the reaction.
Is the Yield Curve Inversion on the Jackson Hole Agenda?
The economic calendar is very light with reports on only three days. Existing and new home sales reports could be interesting and there are many fans of the leading economic indicators. The combination of empty airtime and some Fed news is like an aphrodisiac to the pundits, all of whom are self-affirmed experts on the Fed.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Get Out, Hide Out, or Ride It Out?
The economic calendar is normal, featuring housing starts, retail sales, and Michigan sentiment. The CPI will be important someday, but only when it breaks the recent path of gentle increases. With summer vacations in full swing (even Congress is on a five-week recess) the punditry turns to tried and true topics...
Weighing the Week Ahead: Have the Facts Changed Your Mind?
The economic calendar is one of the smallest of the year. With last week’s market decline and increased volatility, pundits who are not on a summer vacation can do some navel-gazing and reconsider their conclusions. Or not.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Four Risky Hurdles
The economic calendar is massive, and that is just the start. Earnings season is in full swing. US/China trade talks resume. And finally, the FOMC announces its interest rate decisions.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Are You Part of the Dumb Money?
The economic calendar is light but includes some home sales data and the (old news) Q2 GDP first estimates. Fed speakers will be on the sidelines for the pre-meeting quiet period. Earnings reports remain the most important fresh data for both traders and investors.
Weighing the Week Ahead: How Much Has Economic Weakness Hurt Corporate Earnings?
The economic calendar is normal and includes several important reports. I am especially interested in the housing data and retail sales. More important than the economic data is the start of earnings season.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Who Really Runs the Fed?
The economic calendar is modest with a focus on monetary policy. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting, Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Powell, more inflation data, and continuing discussion of Friday’s employment report all put the Fed in focus.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Chinese Fireworks?
The economic calendar is a big one, featuring the employment situation report on Friday. The rest of the data – ADP employment, auto sales, and the ISM surveys – will be released over 2 ½ days. The US Independence Day celebration on Thursday will provide one type of fireworks.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can US/China Trade Talks Save the Global Economy?
This week’s economic calendar is important, including reports on personal income and spending, consumer confidence, and the Fed’s favorite inflation indicators. Despite this, the punditry will be looking toward the week’s end and news from the G20 meetings. Naturally, we can expect some advance leaks.
Weighing the Week Ahead: A De Facto Expansion of the Fed’s Mandate?
The economic calendar is normal, highlighting housing data, leading indicators, and the FOMC decision. The pundit conversation remains all about the Fed, but a new angle is getting more attention. The talking heads will not raise the question explicitly – sticking to personal ideas of what the Fed should be doing.
Weighing the Week Ahead: What Determines the Agenda for Investment News?
The economic calendar is one of the lightest, and a long holiday weekend impends. How will this news vacuum be filled? Probably with celebrity news, following the latest tweets, analyzing any new Democrats running for President, and interviews with B-level guests.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Stalemate?
The economic calendar has plenty of important data. Fed speakers will be on the circuit. There is plenty of political and geopolitical news. On all of these fronts we see a stalemate.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Fear A Market Top?
The calendar is modest, with the big reports all hitting last week. Investors will never have more current information on the economy, the Fed, corporate earnings, and various risks than they do right now. It is difficult to guess what the punditry will do when given an open slate.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Why is the Market so Quiet?
The economic calendar is light so attention will again focus on Q1 earnings reports. Non-financial news will, no doubt, take center stage. The biggest market story seems to be the lack of action. That might be fine for you and for me, but not for the punditry.
Weighing the Week Ahead: An Avalanche of Housing Data
It is a big economic calendar with almost every report on housing released in a single week. This is the result of the shutdown delay. Now we can get more clarity on this important sector. Pundits will be asking: Are lower mortgage rates helping home sales?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Hint at a New Course?
With a light economic calendar including a lot of old data and an FOMC meeting, the choice of focus for pundits is obvious. Investors might well wonder what new information about the Fed might be available, but that won’t stop the speculation. Pundits will be asking:
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Slowing Chinese Growth Spark a Global Recession?
We have a big economic calendar with some reporting still catching up from the government shutdown. Inflation data, small business and consumer confidence, and retail sales lead the list. In addition to the U.S. economic data, there is increasing concern about China.
What is “Baked Into” Current Market Prices?
We have an important calendar with employment and housing news. Some important market worries have been avoided, at least for a time. What is behind the rebound in stocks.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is there a New Message from the Markets?
We have a light economic calendar and a short week. We’ll get earnings reports from another 10% of S&P 500 companies. With plenty of time and little fresh information, I expect plenty of pure speculation about the state of the market.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Worry about the 200-day Moving Average?
We have a normal economic calendar, and 1/3 of S&P 500 companies have not yet reported Q418 earnings. Corporate earnings are not confirming those who thought the market was signaling a recession. Both the economy and earnings remain in the background. Daily market moves, even small ones, and the often-erroneous explanations dominate the financial news.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Corporate Earnings Results Change the Message of the Markets?
It is a light economic calendar without any of the most important reports. The government shutdown will command increasing attention as long as it continues. Finally, there is some real competition in financial news – the start of earnings season.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Storm Warnings
We have a normal economic calendar. Tuesday’s election will take center stage. Markets have less than expected interest in the election. Partly this reflects confidence in a split outcome, with no major policy changes.
Weighing the Week Ahead: What do the Mid-Term Elections Mean for Financial Markets?
We have a huge economic calendar. While employment data will get most of the attention, there are also important reports on ISM manufacturing, personal income, PCE prices, consumer confidence and auto sales. Earnings season continues with another big week of reports. In normal times these topics would provide plenty to think about.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Major Market Misperceptions
We have a light economic calendar with a focus on housing. Earnings season would normally be the most important market theme. For now, observers are seeing what they want to see in earnings reports.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Spark a Rebound in Stocks?
We have a normal economic calendar with a focus on housing data. Earnings season will be in full swing. The background for this news will, of course, be the stock market volatility and decline of the past week.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Do Rising Interest Rates Signal the Beginning of the End?
There is a light economic calendar with a focus on inflation data. This is timely given the growing fear about rising interest rates. While these reports have been benign in recent years, even a modest uptick could fuel concerns.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Asking the Right Questions
There is a big economic calendar featuring the most important monthly reports – employment, ISM manufacturing, ISM services, and auto sales. In normal times we would be analyzing the data and the implications for corporate earnings and interest rates.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Quit Fighting the Last War
There is a normal economic calendar featuring four different housing reports. With little interest in recent economic or earnings news, the punditry has been interested in history. For many it is another opportunity to sell fear.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Inflation Watch
There is a big economic calendar competing with mid-term election campaign stories. The increase in hourly wages in the employment report offset some market enthusiasm about continuing job market strength. With inflation concerns on a hair trigger, expect special focus on this week’s PPI and CPI. The Beige Book and JOLTS report will also get pundit scrutiny.
Weighing the Week Ahead: All About Jobs!
There is a huge economic calendar in a holiday-shortened week. The mid-term elections impend, so politicians will be on the stump. With Labor Day setting the stage and the week loaded with key employment reports, expect plenty of attention to employment issues. Much of this will be confusing and unproductive spinning.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Worry about the Yield Curve?
Once again, the economic calendar is fairly light. Vacations continue for many. The upcoming Labor Day weekend will tempt many market participants to end this week early. Financial news seems more like political news these days. Much of the punditry is focused on a death watch for the bull market, with daily discuss of the flattening yield curve and speculation about when it will “invert.” This is not the right question. Pundits should be asking: Should investors be worried about the yield curve?
Weighing the Week Ahead: A Message from Jackson Hole?
The economic calendar is light, and many are already on vacation. Even actual economic news has not competed with the ‘what can we talk about on a slow Friday’ story over the last few weeks. The real news this week begins with the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and ends with Chairman Powell’s speech Friday morning.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Don’t Get Framed!
The market remains in a narrow trading range, near the record highs. There have been some relatively minor leadership changes. This reflects not investor complacency, but intense disagreement about how to interpret data and events. Each viewpoint has a history, a philosophy, and problem something to sell!
Weighing the Week Ahead: A Delicate (and Temporary) Balance
Despite plenty of news, there was little market reaction. In a summer week including many vacations, we have a modest economic calendar but plenty of earnings news.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Anything Goes!
I cannot remember a market week with so many significant events. Important economic data and testimony by Fed Chairman Powell would be a big week. But we also have the Trump/Putin meeting, the start of an important earnings season, and the daily soap opera from Washington.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Inflation on the Horizon?
The economic calendar is a light one, and many regular participants are on vacation. The most important data include PPI, CPI, and JOLTS, the best read on a tightening labor market.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is it Time to Worry About 2020?
The economic calendar is loaded with the most important reports. The four trading days are divided by a Wednesday holiday, meaning some extra days off for most. Normally the data would dominate the discussion.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Incipient Headwinds Derail the Economy?
The economic calendar is loaded. The many reports include several of the most-watched. The data may even generate enough fresh news to break the summer slumber. There is plenty of skepticism about the most recent economic data.
Weighing the Week Ahead: What is Working, and Will It Persist?
The economic calendar is modest. Volatility is lower even with plenty of news. The summer doldrums have arrived! It provides time for introspection to fill those empty timeslots and pages.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Do Individual Investors Face a Pivotal Decision?
The economic calendar is loaded and there is plenty of non-economic news as well. The punditry will focus on the Trump-Kim summit at the start of the week and then turn to inflation data and the Fed. Who knows what the first might bring, but the market is unlikely to be surprised by the Fed.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is it Time to Worry About a Trade War?
The economic calendar is light. Most of the “financial” news flow relates to non-core stories. Of the various geo-political themes, there is one that is most significant for investors.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Higher Interest Rates Lead to Lower Stock Prices?
The economic calendar is light, and the market week will be shortened. There is no holiday this week, but expect many participants to take off early for a long weekend. If interest remain above 3% on the ten-year note, that will be the focus.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Which Stocks Benefit Most from Trump Policy Changes?
The economic calendar is normal, but there will be a lot of competing news – Korean talks, China negotiations, and the Trump legal team’s announcement about whether the President will meet with Special Counsel Mueller. And those are just the items we know about!
Weighing the Week Ahead: Why Are Stocks Stuck in Neutral?
The economic calendar is normal, with an emphasis on inflation data. The week will begin with analysis of the annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting, the wisdom of Buffett and Munger, and a multi-hour CNBC program including Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Bill Gates.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Strong Economic Data Send Interest Rates Higher?
The economic calendar is huge, including the most important monthly data and plenty of earnings reports. With a Fed meeting on the calendar and Tuesday’s decline attributed to the ten-year note touching 3%, the punditry will be asking: Will economic data drive interest rates higher?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is Strong Earnings Growth Already Reflected in Stock Prices?
The economic calendar is normal, with an emphasis on housing. Earnings season begins in earnest, with widespread, high expectations.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Have Stock Prices Veered from the Fundamentals?
The economic calendar has several of the most important reports. The managerial rosters will be back at full strength, perhaps after an extra day or two off. Investment committees will consider implications from Q1 results. Pundits will try to explain what it all means.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the US Launch a Trade War?
The economic calendar is normal but featuring the monthly employment report. Usually that would be the focus, and it might become so by week’s end. Until the situation is clarified, the paramount question will be: Has the US ignited a trade war?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is the Coast Clear?
The economic calendar is very light, and it is a holiday-shortened week. With the quadrennial CNBC switch to Olympic curling coverage after the market close, there is a little less air time to fill. What time and space remains will invite pundit opinion about last week’s stock rebound and the question: Is the coast clear?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Inflation Data Spark Another Leg Down?
The economic calendar is heavy. In the battle of competing explanations for the market declines, the inflation story has taken center stage. With both PPI and CPI scheduled for release this week, I expect many to be asking: Will rising inflation spark another leg down for bonds and stocks?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is this an Inflection Point for Both Stocks and the Economy?
The economic calendar is normal, but some of the results might not be released on schedule. If the government remains shut down, economic news may take a back seat to the political maneuvering. While we don’t know how that will play out, we can expect an important stream of corporate earnings reports.
Weighing the Week Ahead: A Confusing Earnings Season
The economic calendar is normal, with a holiday-shortened week and some ongoing political worries. Competing with the Washington Circus will be Q417 corporate earnings reports. The former topics will have greater news interest, but investors should be digging into the earnings reports.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Start Worrying About Inflation?
The economic calendar is about normal, with market participants back from holiday vacations (but perhaps fighting the snow). The key reports are the PPI and CPI. Inflation is the key 2018 worry for many, so these reports will get more attention. Especially if the numbers are a little hot, I expect the punditry to be asking: How worried should we be about inflation?
Weighing the Week Ahead: What Should Worry Investors in 2018?
The economic calendar is a big one, compressed into a holiday-shortened week. There are no reports scheduled for Tuesday, and I have a suspicion that the A-Teams may be a bit slow in returning to work. With the big news coming at week’s end, and the need for fresh copy on Tuesday I expect the punditry to be asking: What should we worry about it 2018?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Which Stocks are the Tax Cut Winners (or Losers)?
The economic calendar is light, the week is short, and the A-Teams are taking some time off. It is the formula for punditry gone wild. But what will be the subject, especially if Bitcoin is not moving much? I suspect questions of two types. The first will focus on the tax cuts, identifying the winning and losing stocks and sectors. The second will update the list of worries for 2018.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Fresh Legs for the Stock Rally in 2018?
The economic calendar is loaded, especially with reports on housing. Despite this, the calendar and recent events will stimulate pundits to get out their crystal balls. I expect many to be asking: Can the rally in stocks find fresh legs in 2018?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Plenty of Cross-Winds for Santa
The economic calendar is normal, but there are plenty of cross-currents from other major events. Bitcoin futures, the FOMC meeting, more debate on the tax legislation, the Alabama special Senate election, and an avalanche of 2018 forecasts.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Black Friday Lead to a Green Market?
The economic calendar includes few reports, crammed into two days of a holiday-shortened week. Many will be taking time off – including some of the “A List” pundits. I expect to see some new faces on financial television and a lot of discussion about consumers and the economy. Many will be asking: What does Black Friday mean for the economy, and for stocks?
Weighing the Week Ahead: The Millennial Effect on the Housing Market
The economic calendar includes many reports, but few of the most important. I expect the housing market to attract attention. There are several relevant releases on tap, and the sector is especially important. Some will take up a special slant, asking: Will Millennial buyers extend the housing market rebound?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is This as Good as It Gets?
Last week I wrote that there was so much on the calendar that it was impossible to choose a single theme. This week presents the opposite problem. In the wake of the big news, what will command attention? As I studied the data, I was struck by the confluence of record results.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Fed Chair, Tax Proposal, Data Avalanche, Earnings – A Pundit’s Paradise
There is so much on the calendar next week that it is impossible to choose a single theme. The economic calendar includes all the major reports. It is still the heart of earnings season. Announcements are expected about a new Fed Chair (and perhaps other appointments), the tax reform proposal, and Special Counsel Mueller’s first indictment.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Where is the Fear?
With a light economic calendar, there is plenty of air time for pundit pontification. The record-setting market still has many shaking their heads. Many, after noting the many world problems, are asking: Where is the fear?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Spark a Big Year-End Rally?
After last week’s avalanche of economic data, the calendar is back to normal. More important is the onset of earnings season. Recent data have reassured many observers about the health of the U.S. economy. The period of seasonal weakness is ending. Expect people to be asking: Can this earnings season lead to a big year-end rally?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Does Economic Strength Equal Stock Market Strength?
It is a big week for economic data. The punditry will be analyzing the Trump tax proposal. Everyone will be drawing conclusions about how these factors may be linked with stock prices. Expect people to be asking: Does economic strength equal stock market strength?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for Tax Reform?
With the FOMC decision behind us and a moderate data calendar, the financial world will be focused on Washington. Expect people to be asking: Has the time come for tax reform?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will a More Aggressive Fed Spark the Long-Awaited Correction?
We have a light calendar for economic data. The week’s focus will be the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday. Given the resilience of the market rally in the face of various natural and human threats, the punditry will turn to a favored topic. Expect people to be asking: Will the Fed be the catalyst for a market correction?
Weighing the Week Ahead: What Can be Done to Create More Jobs at Better Pay?
We have the biggest data calendar of the year, climaxing with the employment report. It is right before the Labor Day weekend. It is a natural setup for politicians and pundits alike.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is a Market-Friendly Policy Agenda in Peril?
Once again, the expected quiet summer week was instead filled with action. With analysts of all stripes analyzing every aspect of the changes in the Trump Administration, the financial punditry will do the same.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the North Korea Threat be the Catalyst for a Market Correction?
In a normal, quiet summer week we would be lazily considering consumer confidence and the Fed minutes. Instead, the escalating war of words between the U.S. and North Korea has claimed the agenda.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Raise Price Targets?
With President Trump taking vacation at the same time as Congress and a light data calendar, what will the pundits feast upon? Corporate earnings results and new stock market records mean that the price targets at the start of the year are now obsolete.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Have You “Missed” the Rally?
There was something of a change in tone last week. There is more recognition of improving conditions. With a tailwind from improving earnings.
Weighing the Week Ahead: A Seinfeld Market?
It is a Seinfeld market. The story is about nothing, but must be described along the way. With nothing better to discuss, people will be asking what should we expect for the rest of 2017.
Weighing the Week Ahead: How Strong is the Labor Market?
A holiday-interrupted week is loaded with important economic data. Since many market participants will skip Monday to stretch their weekend, the action will focus on Friday’s employment situation report.
How Strong is the Labor Market?
A holiday-interrupted week is loaded with important economic data. Since many market participants will skip Monday to stretch their weekend, the action will focus on Friday’s employment situation report. People will be asking: Just how strong is the labor market?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is the Housing Rally Over?
With soft housing data last week and higher interest rates expected, it is a good time to ask: Is the housing rally over?
Is it Time for New Leadership?
What worries me…Lack of compromise in government. Many believe that gridlock is good. Not so. We will need bi-partisan compromise to deal with the big issues like growing government debt and entitlement programs. Growing tension with Russia, and within Russia.
Is the Bond Market Sending a Message for Stocks?
While it is true that each asset class is always part of a relative comparison, the overall valuation in any asset reflects inflation expectations. Moreover, the long-term relationship between stocks and bonds is positive. Viewed in this way, we should not be surprised by Friday’s trading, or by similar reactions.
Will a Big Week for Data (finally) Bring Volatility?
Expected earnings are increasing nicely – now at a double-digit pace. These have been better predictors than any of the oft-cited bearish valuation methods. The chance of a recession, the biggest historical threat to markets, remains very low. The list of “geopolitical concerns and headwinds” does not translate into an impact on earnings.
Will the Fed Change Course?
The Fed story may well command attention. I classify it as an important story, but not an urgent one. I have some strongly-held viewpoints:
- The exact timing of rate hikes is not important for long-term investors. The Fed has been following a policy of rate increases in line with economic data. While many do not believe this, the data are supportive. Tim Duy on recent strength.
- That said, the rate increases have second- and third-order effects. The perception of the pace of hikes impacts exchange rates. The weaker dollar affects major corporate earnings – in both directions. This makes the Fed news worth watching.
- Current data are stronger than widely thought, but much depends upon how one views the Q1 softness—meaningful or aberrant. Recent Fed speeches suggest a moderation in the rate-hike path.
- Rates will be increased more slowly, but the balance sheet will be reduced.
Should Investors Fear Another Watergate?
We have a very quiet week for economic reports. The housing data are quite important, but it will be a Tuesday story without legs. The White House drama will be compelling for the media. Whether investors like the idea or not, we should expect another week of news that is mostly political.
Weighing the Week Ahead: What is the Message of the Market?
We have a quiet week for data. The ObamaCare drama is finished for now. The Fed meeting is over. Earnings season is past the peak. Don’t worry! The punditry will find something new. Analysts will look deeply into the charts and ask: What is the message of the market?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Rebuild the Wall of Worry?
As some market worries have been put to rest, there is a growing appetite for new ones. Pundits who say that things look OK are not very exciting. Last week we saw a shift in attention. Despite healthy earnings and good economic data.
Weighing the Week Ahead: How Should Investors Cope with Geopolitical Risk?
Last week I suggested that the market might be ready for some real news—corporate earnings. That is still a key topic, but attention is focused on world events.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will an Earnings Surge Revive the Stock Rally?
Are you ready for some real news? How about corporate earnings? While there is some economic data on tap, the Q1 earnings season starts in earnest this week. With questions about economic strength, the dollar and the Fed in mind, pundits will be looking for fresh data.
Weighing the Week Ahead: What Can We Learn from the Trump-Xi Meeting?
We have a big economic calendar and potential Fed news. Those stories will take a back burner this week. My safest prediction is that we are about to see a new rash of China experts both in print media and on CNBC!
What Does the Health Care Decision Mean for Stocks?
There is plenty of “upside risk.” Earnings growth is improving, even in the environment of modest growth. The recent market strength could go on for years without any policy changes. If some of the Trump agenda (probably with Democratic support) becomes law, it could mean a spike in both economic growth and profits. We already see improved business and consumer confidence.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will a More Aggressive Fed Derail the Stock Rally?
The economic calendar is light until the Friday employment report. Most of the punditry are still digesting the more aggressive talk in the recent speeches from Fed participants. With many observers expecting a correction and looking for a catalyst, pundits will be asking: Will a more aggressive Fed derail the rally in stocks?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Have Stock Prices Lost Touch with Reality?
It is a big week for economic data and the first address to Congress from the new President. Most of the punditry is engaged in a collective head-shake about overbought conditions. Even if the data flow remains strong.
Trump V. Yellen Round One
I expect to see little change in Fed policy. The new President will wind up appointing people with traditional credentials, but perhaps with different policy viewpoints. He will not reappoint Yellen, although people forget that the Fed Chair is often appointed by Presidents of both parties.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is Market Optimism Justified?
We have a rather light week for economic data. The biggest reports came last week. Earnings season continues. Everyone is keeping a close eye on President Trump, wondering what might happen next. Meanwhile, stocks are at all-time highs and interest rates have stabilized.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Policy Uncertainty Increase Stock Volatility?
We have a normal calendar for economic data. There will be important news will come from corporate earnings reports. Since this earnings season is part of an inflection point – the end of the earnings recession– it is special.
Will Q4 Earnings Confirm Recent Economic Strength?
My scorecard for earnings season will look for the following company characteristics: Confidence. I expect most to have a murky outlook, with no reason to set the future bar very high. Important trade relationships – imports or exports. Comments on these fears may create some buying opportunities. Concern about a stronger dollar. Everyone is teed up to watch for this, and we should as well.
Digging Down on the Trump Effect
Some sort of fund repatriation will be part of the package. All else equal, that suggests a bias to companies that might gain the most. The Atlanta Fed provides some hard data. Expect tax cuts, probably including some nods to Democrats. This will represent fiscal stimulus. Cyclicals continue to show strength, partly from the expectation noted above. (Eddy Elfenbein). The trade war is likely to be a bargaining approach. It is an error to over-react on speculation. The health care issue is far from settled. Early symbolic repeal? Yes. Real changes? Unclear.
Profitable New Year’s Resolutions for Investors
As part of my preparation for 2017, I asked how I could be most helpful for individual investors. The suggested resolutions are a combination of expert investment methods and avoiding the most common investor mistakes. They may be difficult to follow. If you can, you will find them profitable.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Santa Rally Trumped?
2017 begins with plenty of economic data crammed into a short week. While most expected at least a touch of Dow 20K last week, it did not happen. The conversation quickly shifted to why the rally stalled out. In the coming week, the punditry will be asking: Should we expect a weak start to 2017?
Weighing the Week Ahead: New Year, New Highs, and a New List of Worries
There is a normal dose of economic data this week, but we are entering a quiet, pre-holiday period. As the rally faltered a bit, the Dow 20K talk yielded to a discussion of what could go wrong.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Dow 20K?
The post-election market run has been accompanied by improving economic data and increasing confidence. The result has the punditry asking a question that seemed crazy in January: Will the Dow hit 20K?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Are Stocks Ready for Stronger Economic News?
It is (ahem) a very big week for new data. The A-teams are back from their mini-vacations, ready to take a fresh look at the new world.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Possible Stimulus and How to Pay
It is a short week without much new data. Even FedSpeak is on holiday. The big story will continue to be the Trump transition.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for a Portfolio “Transition?”
There is some important data on the schedule for this week, along with earnings and the expected doses of FedSpeak. None of that will attract much attention. Instead expect “all Trump, all the time”.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for Some Clarity?
The possible election results are not binary. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, listed below from bearish to bullish. Please note that I am not opining about who I want to win or how you should vote. I am reporting how the market will probably react under differing circumstances, with some references for you to start your own research.
Weighing the Week Ahead: When Will the Trading Range Be Broken?
We have normal week for economic data, including the first estimate for Q3 GDP. There are also important earnings reports. Election stories have become even more intense. Meanwhile, the market has been pretty quiet.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Has the Market Rotation Begun?
We have normal week for economic data, and a big week for earnings reports. The last Presidential debate will grab headlines. We have been monitoring these factors for weeks, but something new is showing up in the data.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is this the End of the “Earnings Recession?”
We face a modest week for economic data. While equity markets remain open, bonds will not trade on Monday (Columbus Day). Yom Kippur begins Tuesday at sundown and extends through the next day.