Commentary

Risky Business or Business as Usual?

We have a big week for economic data with the emphasis on employment. With reports on jobless claims, ADP employment, and the official employment situation report all hitting right before Labor Day, we can be sure it will be a big topic. Throw in the election campaigning and we can expect jobs to be the theme of the week.

Commentary

Do Housing Market Changes Present an Investment Opportunity?

We have a light economic calendar with a sharp focus on housing data. Earnings season has ended, and Congress is out of town. There is plenty of space for journalists to fill in a quiet, mid-summer week. Perhaps the housing data will fill some of that space.

Commentary

Economic Sunrise?

We have a big economic calendar with reports on inflation, small business optimism, retail sales, consumer confidence, and unemployment claims. I expect the data to continue occupation of the back seat.

Commentary

Is the Payroll Employment Report Accurate?

It is a big week for economic data. There are many reports with the most attention on Friday’s Employment Situation data. We will also get auto sales, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, construction spending, and factory orders. 

Commentary

Time for A Look Under the Hood of the Economic Engine

We face an important economic calendar and earnings reports from 192 companies in the S&P 500. We will get important data on sentiment, personal income and spending, housing, employment claims, inflation, manufacturing.

Commentary

What is Your Personal Downside Risk?

The economic calendar is light with a focus on home sales. Unemployment claims data remains an especially important indicator. Second quarter earnings reports will be more important than the economic data, but I do not expect much fresh information on COVID-19 and earnings outlook.

Commentary

Time for Some Hedging?

The economic calendar is extensive with a focus on housing and consumer behavior. Expect market participants to look for any sign that the economic recovery is stalling in the face of the COVID-19 surge and the slower pace of reopening.

Commentary

Don’t Look Back!

The economic calendar is modest, and many market participants will probably extend their long weekends. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and jobless claims data will be the most important.

Commentary

There are No Shortcuts!

The economic calendar is light with a focus on housing reports. These are becoming interesting again since we are getting a look at data that reflects the crisis effects. The reopening of the economy will continue as the leading story. What will be the safeguards in reopening businesses and the precautions taken by those venturing out?

Commentary

Roadblocks to Recovery

The economic calendar is a normal one and is beginning to include data from after the start of the crisis. This week includes small business and consumer sentiment surveys, as well as April data for retail sales and industrial production. I will also be watching jobless claims, both new and continuing.

Commentary

Are You Ready for Some High-Stakes Gambling?

It is a light economic calendar if measured by the number of reports but an important one given the focus on employment. We will get reports from ADP, the “official” BLS employment situation numbers, and the weekly early indicator from jobless claims. Whatever else happens in the economy, jobs take center stage.

Commentary

Should Investors Become Traders?

The economic calendar is packed with important reports. In normal times we would all be very interested, but the times are far from normal. Several of the reports emphasize April data, the first full impacts of the pandemic and shutdowns.

Commentary

Curb Your Enthusiasm

The economic calendar is light and provides little post-COVID19 data. Continuing jobless claims takes on a new importance, and we may get some useful information from the components of the University of Michigan sentiment survey.

Commentary

Good Questions but Poor Answers

The economic calendar includes several important releases, but few reflect the COVID19 effects. Everyone knows the economic news is dismal. Just how dismal does not seem to matter.

Commentary

Navigating the Maze of Models

Once again, no one cares about the economic calendar. There are a few items with recent data – jobless claims, mortgage applications, and Michigan sentiment – but most reports are old news. Everyone is focused on the increase in coronavirus cases and deaths. There are plenty of predictions, each based on model from a reputable source. The variation is wide.