Commentary

Logistical Sandpiles

The ongoing, intensifying supply chain problems are raising costs in ways that add broad inflation pressure everyone will feel. And the zeitgeist in the workplace is literally changing before our eyes.

Commentary

China’s Gilded Age Is Over

Historical comparisons are always risky. This is particularly so when comparing different eras in vastly different countries like the US and China. Similarities can actually obscure more important differences.

Commentary

Xi’s Changing Plan

A few months ago in Xi’s Big Mistake, I said Beijing risked killing the entrepreneurial activity that had spurred the country’s rapid growth. As we learn more, this is looking less like a mistake and more like a mistakenly-conceived plan.

Commentary

What Could Go Wrong?

Today, I want to show you how richly valued the market is and then review some of the top risks that could force it downward. Like those sandpiles I talk about, we don’t know exactly what will trigger a collapse. We know something will do it. Sandpiles don’t grow to infinity.

Commentary

Inflation: More Transitory than Expected

Today we’ll take another walk through the inflation debate. Is it still transitory or should we expect a light-1970s inflation going forward? The answer is critically important.

Commentary

The Return of Stagflation

Today I’m going to look at several possible futures. There are forces at work in both Congress and the Federal Reserve that could take us down radically different paths. There are also changes in the Zeitgeist, the way we act and think both in and as a society, that are going to have major impacts.

Commentary

Human Capital Losses

We are in an odd situation where it’s unclear if labor is scarce or abundant. Many employers can’t seem to find enough qualified workers, but the August jobs report said 8.4 million are unemployed and millions more underemployed.

Commentary

Perfect Storms

Several potentially big storms are brewing. They could be minor annoyances or catastrophic disasters, or anywhere in between. I truly hope they all resolve with minimal fuss. But they may not. They could even combine into a perfect storm of even greater magnitude… so now is the time to prepare.

Commentary

Buy Businesses, Not Stocks

You’ve probably heard of Ron Baron, founder of Baron Funds which has grown to a stable of not just mutual funds but a variety of private investments and Ron’s own capital—something like $50 billion in total. We were thrilled to have him on the SIC virtual stage, where my good friend David Bahnsen ably interviewed him. I’ll give you some extensive quotes from that session’s transcript, interspersed with comments from me.

Commentary

Ubiquity, Complexity, and Sandpiles

“How did you go bankrupt?”
“Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

Commentary

COVID Consumer Headache

If you look just at 2021, it seems the US economy is tearing higher.

Commentary

Policy Errors Have Consequences

I am worried the Fed will either let inflation become psychologically entrenched, or wait too long to stop it and spark crisis with a too-hasty response, but there are other possibilities. None are especially good.

Commentary

Federal Reserve Folly

Let me be very clear. I believe the Federal Reserve has already made a significant policy error that can lead directly to recession. An accompanying fiscal policy error by the US Congress could compound the Fed’s error, although that remains to be seen, as it is not clear what will pass Congress.

Commentary

Xi’s Big Mistake

Xi has been trying to balance economic freedom and authoritarian control and it’s not working like it used to. Today we’ll review some recent events that illustrate where Xi went wrong.

Commentary

TINA Is Stupid

TINA has been applied to investing. You must buy stocks because TINA. You can’t make money any other way. Just close your eyes, buy and hold forever. Or at least through a full market cycle. Frankly, I think that’s stupid.