Commentary

Stall Speed Economy

In this letter I find myself recommending policies that not that long ago would have been extraordinarily distasteful to me. Yet, unless we pursue them, our economy will truly be turned upside down. I fully recognize these things have a cost. But the cost of inaction is much higher.

Commentary

On the Question of Current and Future Lockdowns

My theme today is on the pandemic’s future economic impact, especially in the United States.

Commentary

Inflation Virus Strikes Fed

The unintended consequences from recent Fed “policy” changes, not to mention those initiated in prior decades, have been at the very epicenter of some of the national problems we have. The Fed would vigorously deny this course, but the results are plain for all to see.

Commentary

Light in the COVID Tunnel

We’ll be okay, but we’ll have problems first. Both can be true; the difference is in the timing. It’s important to keep this straight in our minds. Extreme things can happen, for either good or bad, but they don’t last forever. We have to maintain mental balance between the extremes.

Commentary

Business on the Frontline

This depression/recession is unlike any we have experienced. Parts of our economy are doing well, parts are in recession, and a significant portion is already in a depression. As government guarantees wane in the future, more and more companies and people will slip into the depression category.

Commentary

The Second Great Depression… But Not Really

Today we will explore what some smart minds are saying about the current economic environment. I'll also aim to help you navigate through its complexity.

Commentary

Yellow Flag Jobs Data

As I file this letter Friday morning, people are reacting to the July jobs report. My own reaction: The headline report is absurd.

Commentary

European Resurgence

Big things have been brewing in Europe. The same continent that two years ago I said was going through “monetary drug withdrawal,” is now set to outpace US growth by a wide margin. And US growth, which had led the world for years, now looks likely to lag it.

Commentary

Valuation Inflation

We’ll start with a dozen or so charts showing the market is either very highly valued, or extremely overvalued, or merely stretched. But in general, you will see markets are indeed at the upper end of historical valuations. Then we’ll consider some reasons why this is so, and why stocks could even go higher.

Commentary

Small Business Blues

Politicians love saying small businesses are important to the economy. In this case, it isn’t just rhetoric. The millions of little companies with a handful of workers are, collectively, more important than the few hundred large enterprises we see in the news.

Commentary

Stumble-Through Jobs Market

Today we’ll look at the data, including some non-government sources. As you will see, millions of workers will stumble through this period, and they may be the lucky ones.

Commentary

The Blacker Swan

I read The Black Swan shortly after it came out. The financial crisis and Great Recession were brewing, and I was already beginning to predict a recession. We sensed something big was coming but didn’t know the details. Rereading my September 2007 review of Taleb’s book is an eerie glimpse into the past. It’s also a good reminder that more big events lie ahead.

Commentary

A Recession Like No Other

In short, a demand-driven recession can’t end until demand returns. It doesn’t necessarily need to be the same kind of demand. Indeed, it probably won’t be. But something must restore consumer spending. A lot of entrepreneurs are spending late nights (and days) trying to figure out how to restore consumer spending.

Commentary

Where We Go from Here

Today I’ll defy the proverb, consider what we know and don’t know, and try to tell you where I think we’re going. In the long run (after The Great Reset in the late 2020s), I still foresee a wonderful new world. But we have to get there first.

Commentary

The Stumble-Through Economy

In their effort to improve things/prevent pain, Fed officials past and present financialized the economy. That, along with more unintended consequences from government debt and regulatory interventions (all well-intentioned, you understand) brought us to where we are today. We can’t walk it back without a great deal of pain no one wants to take, including your humble analyst.