Commentary

The Great Jobs Reset

What normalcy will it be? I don’t expect to simply go back to the way things were. The economy as it was structured in December 2019 is gone forever. The world is different now. The economy will be different, too.

Commentary

Random Thoughts from the Frontline

Rather than going deep into one theme, this week we will do a “Random Thoughts” from the Frontline. Today we will cover several topics in shorter form: valuations, infrastructure, the debacle in Texas, and a lot more.

Commentary

Overstimulation Risk

If, however, the pandemic continues into summer, it will mean the Gripping Hand is still squeezing us. Employment won’t recover and more small businesses will fail. This relief package, as large as it is, may prove necessary and maybe even too small.

Commentary

Controlling the Curve

Today I want to discuss an arcane-sounding but incredibly important term you need to know: Yield Curve Control. Several central banks are already using it and I see a strong possibility the Fed will join them. But first we must again consider the Gripping Hand.

Commentary

Inflation and Broken Windows

I’m often asked if I foresee inflation or deflation. Both are possible in their own ways, and frankly I feel a little funny telling people I think we will see both. I would just like to have a growing economy and dependable money that holds its value.

Commentary

Forecast 2021: The Stock Market

The 2020s are going to be about rifle shots, not the shotgun approach of index funds.

Commentary

The Grip Tightens

Today we’ll begin by looking at new virus developments, some of which are good, some very good, and some frightening. We (the entire world) are in a very tight race with dire consequences if we lose.

Commentary

Year of the Gripping Hand

This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021.

Commentary

Stock Market Party

We’ll take a closer look at the stock market and where it may be going.

Commentary

Survival of the Biggest

The virus—or specifically the political response to it—is causing a mass extinction event for small businesses in certain sectors. At the same time, some large businesses are reaping a bonanza of revenue from the same pandemic.

Commentary

Elites on the Edge

Two weeks ago I talked about Peter Turchin’s idea of “elite overproduction” leading to social and economic crisis. While he doesn’t have any solutions, Turchin helps illuminate how we reached this point. Today we’ll go a little deeper and think about the implications.

Commentary

The Financial Fire Trucks of 2021

A Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my US friends. This year was different for many of us—sometimes by choice, sometimes not. But there’s one bit of good news I think we can all share: The holiday season means 2020 is almost over. Soon, we’ll be able to turn the page.

Commentary

The Great Reset vs. The Great Reset

Today I’m going to blend a few thoughts about The Great Reset with some other historical analysis I recently discovered. It adds up to a disturbing outlook, even if (as seems likely, given the latest vaccine news) we’re past the pandemic by late next year. We’ll find different challenges on the other side.

Commentary

A Chance for Normalcy

Today we’ll talk about the political changes, what they mean for the economy, and then how the latest vaccine news may affect the outlook.

Commentary

Complexity Wins Again

Today I want to use the election to illustrate just how complex a seemingly simple situation can be. This matters not just politically, but economically as well.