Commentary

Policy Risks Loom But Clarity Ahead

Several policy-related risks loom in September and October that may lead to an increase in market volatility. The debt ceiling needs to be raised (likely by mid-October), the government needs to be funded to avoid a shutdown by the end of September...

Commentary

LPL Research Outlook 2021: Powering Forward December 2020

More than most years, it’s hard to look ahead to the next year, to 2021, without looking back at 2020. A global pandemic, a massive economic collapse, a bear market, a surprisingly sharp reversal, a hotly contested election where passions ran high, the impact of lockdowns—it was an unusual year of extraordinary challenges.

Commentary

The Trail to Recovery

At LPL Research, we know the stock market is forward-looking: It focuses on what’s happening today and what it sees on the path ahead. Much of the real-time economic data we follow—such as transportation activity, home sales, and jobless claims—is showing tangible evidence that economic activity—while still depressed—has begun to make a comeback.

Commentary

Is the Earnings Bar Low Enough?

This earnings season will be unlike any other, as travel restrictions and lockdowns related to COVID-19 have impacted results dramatically. The biggest economic hits came in mid-March, however, and won’t be fully captured in first quarter results.

Commentary

Closer Look At February

A late month selloff in January saw the S&P 500 Index close marginally lower for the month. But stocks have taken off in February, with the S&P 500 up nearly 4% this month, as US economic data remains strong and fears over the worst-case scenarios for the coronavirus appear overblown.

Commentary

Here Comes The Worst Month Of The Year

The good news is August is finally coming to a close, but the bad news is that September is next. Since 1950, September has been the worst month for the S&P 500 Index, which has dropped an average of 0.5% during the month.

Commentary

Takeaways on the Yield Curve Inversion

A closely watched point on the Treasury yield curve has fallen negative for the first time in this economic cycle.

Commentary

Stock Fundamentals Still Supportive

We expect stocks to move higher over the second half of the year. Stocks already have had quite a run in 2019, buoyed by a return to fundamentals, with the S&P 500 Index up 17.4% year to date through June 28 for an 18.5% total return.

Commentary

The Stock Market's Final Four

In today’s Weekly Market Commentary, we share our “Final Four Factors” for the stock market in 2019: policy, the economy, rates, and profits. While we expect a hard-fought battle between these factors and, with it, some market volatility, we still see the potential for further gains for stocks this year.

Commentary

Time to Take Off The Blindfold?

The S&P 500 Index is off to its best start in years, but this is on the heels of the worst year for stocks since 2008. The trifecta of crashing oil prices, confusion from the Federal Reserve (Fed), and trade issues with China all pushed equities lower by 14% during the usually bullish fourth quarter last year...

Commentary

FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets

Investors’ obsession with the flattening U.S. Treasury yield curve dominated headlines for much of 2018. A flattening yield curve occurs when short-term rates are rising faster than long-term rates, which may eventually lead to an inverted yield curve, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates. Historically, this has been a negative signal for the U.S. economy, often providing an early warning of an eventual recession, which is why the yield curve has been garnering so much attention recently.

Commentary

Third-Quarter GDP Preview

Investors’ first look at third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) will be released on Friday, October 26. Based on the economic data and projections we’ve seen, the economy grew at a moderate to strong pace in the third quarter, with the Bloomberg-surveyed economists’ consensus at 3.4%.

Commentary

Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens

Given that we are in the later stages of this economic cycle, with factors such as increased trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty at play, we do expect greater volatility may be ahead. But it’s important to remember that experiencing these ups and downs is a normal aspect of our market environment.

Commentary

Should You Sell in May?

But should you sell in May this year? Maybe not, and here’s why: “If you subscribe to the old axiom, you should also note that the next six months (November 2018 through April 2019) have been the best performing six-month stretch of the presidential cycle.

Commentary

First Quarter Marked by Return of Volatility

The S&P 500 nine-quarter win streak has ended, with stocks down in a volatile first quarter. Bright spots in the quarter’s market performance included: growth, small caps, technology, consumer discretionary, and emerging markets. While risks remain, market fundamentals have not deteriorated and economic growth remains on pace.