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It's All About the Algorithm: Three Ways to Assess AI in Investment Strategies

Quantitative managers are creating investment strategies that harness AI. How should investors assess them?

Commentary

The Brexit Beat - Phase One is Done

Nearly three and a half years after the Brexit referendum and all of the parliamentary drama in 2019, the UK finally legally exited the EU on Friday, January 31. The UK has now entered an 11-month transition period that ends December 31, 2020.

Commentary

Wuhan Coronavirus: Key Variables to Watch

There is no shortage of alarming and depressing news when reading about the Wuhan coronavirus. The World Health Organization has declared a global health emergency. There are still many unknowns, but there are some indications that the outbreak may not be as severe as our worst fears. Here’s what I’ll be watching as the outbreak unfolds.

Commentary

First Quarter Investment Outlook

2020 is starting off with a strong risk appetite, generally fair-to-rich asset valuations, and accommodative monetary policy from the major central banks. If the current expansion can stay on track, we anticipate another year of positive risk-asset performance.

Commentary

2020 Sector Outlook: US Municipals

The US municipal market registered strong performance in 2019, driven by record demand from individuals and constrained supply of tax-exempt issuance. Both factors grew out of changes legislated in the 2017 Tax Act. As we enter 2020, valuations appear tight versus Treasurys and fair versus corporates and risk assets generally.

Commentary

2020 Sector Outlook: Mortgage and Structured Finance

Looking ahead, we believe the global economic environment will remain supportive for securitized sectors despite potentially slowing economic growth. In the US, we believe strong fundamentals, including robust wage growth and healthy household balance sheets, will provide solid support for real estate and consumer-related credit.

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Loomis Sayles Investment Outlook

Economic and corporate earnings growth will likely have to beat consensus expectations for investors to earn above-average returns in the year ahead.

Commentary

2020 Sector Outlook: Emerging Market Equities

We are bullish on emerging market (EM) equities for 2020 given valuations, continued low interest rates and cyclical and structural growth in many of these countries.

Commentary

2020 Sector Outlook: Emerging Market Credit, Local Debt and Currencies

We expect emerging market (EM) fixed income asset classes to continue to perform well in 2020. Though the sector appears to be starting from less attractive valuations than a year ago, in a low-yielding world, we see opportunity for relative performance in credit and local rates and a tactical tailwind for EM currencies.

Commentary

2020 Sector Outlook: European Investment Grade Corporate Credit

We expect European investment grade bonds to post slightly positive excess returns in 2020. We believe the sector stands to benefit from healthy supply and demand balances, likely offsetting tight valuations and weakening fundamentals.

Commentary

2020 Sector Outlook: US Investment Grade Corporate Credit

The US investment grade (IG) corporate bond market is coming off an exceptionally strong year. Declining interest rates coupled with sharply narrower credit spreads contributed to strong absolute and relative returns.

Commentary

2020 Sector Outlook: Bank Loans

Markets appear to expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady during 2020. In this environment, we think the outflows seen in leveraged loan mutual funds are likely to abate, and possibly change directions.

Commentary

2020 Sector Outlook: High Yield Corporate Credit

A combination of spread compression and reduced US Treasury base rates contributed to double-digit gains in the high yield corporate credit sector in 2019. However, unlike many years with similar returns, lower-quality, CCC-rated credits meaningfully lagged their higher-quality counterparts. At this point in the extended credit cycle, investors appear wary about the performance of lower-quality credits.

Commentary

What’s Next After the US Airstrike in Baghdad?

Brace yourselves. In an unexpected move on January 3, the United States carried out a drone strike that killed a key military figure in Iran, General Qassem Soleimani. Soleimani was the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, the architect of Iranian military influence across the Middle East and the second most powerful figure in Iran after the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei.

Commentary

2020 Sector Outlook: The Macroeconomic Backdrop

Everyone has their methods for mining valuable insights from the vast amount of data and news available in this age of information. At Loomis Sayles, leveraging our sector teams is one way we do this.