Commentary

Gold: Testing Patience But Toeing the Line (For Now)

Since early August the “barbarous relic” has corrected some 9% while many other assets have ascended to all-time highs. This has no doubt caused a bit of consternation for holders of gold who have been using the metal not as a hedge, but as a capital appreciation vehicle unto itself.

Commentary

The Election has Crushed Volatility

As election results continue to trickle in suggesting Joe Biden will be the next president, there still remains a bit of uncertainty with respect the final electoral vote tally as well as any legal challenges that will emerge in the coming days.

Commentary

Foundations for a New Structural Gold Bull Market

In this presentation, we outline our argument for gold entering a new structural bull market.

Commentary

Stock Options Traders are Back at the Speculation

In the last few weeks stock market sentiment as expressed in options has come full circle. Back in August we were noting a rather amazing level of outright speculation in stock options, mostly by small traders that were buying short-dated out of the money calls on the FAAMGs.

Commentary

A Broader Market, but Not a “Value” Rotation

In recent weeks the market has been notably broader in terms of the upside participation from stocks other than FAANMGs. Typically, this type of action in the early stages of a business cycle would be strongly associated with the “value” style working, since “value” companies skew considerably smaller than “growth” companies in aggregate.

Commentary

Correction Update: Correction Continues

We’ve been writing for the last month about the risks, and then the corrective activity in the stock market. Even as the market didn’t peak until the first few days of September, it “feels” like this pause has lasted longer than that.

Commentary

Innovating Gold Production

Franco-Nevada is the world’s largest gold royalty and streaming company. This means the firm invests in gold and mines, but indirectly, the idea being to provide investors with exposure to gold prices and gold exploration while limiting the risks of investing directly in mining companies.

Commentary

Correction Watch: Divergences are Developing Between Large US Stocks and Everything Else

Last week we put out a succinct mid-quarter update in which we highlighted 9 negative inputs into a tactical equity framework. This post builds upon that by calling out 7 rather conspicuous divergences that are developing in the financial markets.

Commentary

Financials Can’t Catch a Break, and What it Means for the Market

The bank stocks are at it again as they make another new 52-week relative performance low compared to the broad market. It’s a perennial issue. Over the last year the KBW Bank Index, an index of 24 of the largest US banks, has underperformed the S&P 500 by 30%.

Commentary

Mid-Quarter Update: Nine+ Negative Inputs for the Equity Market

We believe the risks of an intermediate decline are higher than average and would advocate a more cautious stance toward equities right now.

Commentary

Value over Growth or More of the Same?

When it comes down to it, there are a few key macro variables that are highly correlated with the relative performance of value vs growth – most of them measuring the reflationary impulse in the system in different ways.

Commentary

A Trillion Here, a Trillion There…and What it Means for Stock Market Leadership

Over the weekend the world learned of the Senate Republican’s “opening bid” for the next round of fiscal stimulus in the United States. That number came in at a nice, round $1tn. Now, as large as that number is, it still pales in comparison to the $3.5tn House bill that already passed.

Commentary

When the QQQs Make You Queasy

Here we are in the dog days of summer, and the hot weather is not the only thing making us a little queasy. The darling stock market group since 2011, the Nasdaq 100 stock index, has soared a cool 20% this year and well into all-time high territory. Indeed, the height is making us queasy from vertigo.

Commentary

10 Major Investment Implications (and 32 charts!) of a Weak US Dollar

With the US dollar index recently having completed a so called “death cross”, we thought it would be a good opportunity to review the investment implications of a potential trend change in the USD.

Commentary

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: A Pandemic Study in Embracing Change

How does a Knowledge Leader handle a global pandemic? By adapting.