Commentary

Innovating Gold Production

Franco-Nevada is the world’s largest gold royalty and streaming company. This means the firm invests in gold and mines, but indirectly, the idea being to provide investors with exposure to gold prices and gold exploration while limiting the risks of investing directly in mining companies.

Commentary

Correction Watch: Divergences are Developing Between Large US Stocks and Everything Else

Last week we put out a succinct mid-quarter update in which we highlighted 9 negative inputs into a tactical equity framework. This post builds upon that by calling out 7 rather conspicuous divergences that are developing in the financial markets.

Commentary

Financials Can’t Catch a Break, and What it Means for the Market

The bank stocks are at it again as they make another new 52-week relative performance low compared to the broad market. It’s a perennial issue. Over the last year the KBW Bank Index, an index of 24 of the largest US banks, has underperformed the S&P 500 by 30%.

Commentary

Mid-Quarter Update: Nine+ Negative Inputs for the Equity Market

We believe the risks of an intermediate decline are higher than average and would advocate a more cautious stance toward equities right now.

Commentary

Value over Growth or More of the Same?

When it comes down to it, there are a few key macro variables that are highly correlated with the relative performance of value vs growth – most of them measuring the reflationary impulse in the system in different ways.

Commentary

A Trillion Here, a Trillion There…and What it Means for Stock Market Leadership

Over the weekend the world learned of the Senate Republican’s “opening bid” for the next round of fiscal stimulus in the United States. That number came in at a nice, round $1tn. Now, as large as that number is, it still pales in comparison to the $3.5tn House bill that already passed.

Commentary

When the QQQs Make You Queasy

Here we are in the dog days of summer, and the hot weather is not the only thing making us a little queasy. The darling stock market group since 2011, the Nasdaq 100 stock index, has soared a cool 20% this year and well into all-time high territory. Indeed, the height is making us queasy from vertigo.

Commentary

10 Major Investment Implications (and 32 charts!) of a Weak US Dollar

With the US dollar index recently having completed a so called “death cross”, we thought it would be a good opportunity to review the investment implications of a potential trend change in the USD.

Commentary

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: A Pandemic Study in Embracing Change

How does a Knowledge Leader handle a global pandemic? By adapting.

Commentary

Owning Gold is as Much about Diversification as it is about Capital Appreciation

Regular readers of our content know that we have been building the case for several years now on why gold deserves a place in diversified portfolios.

Commentary

Ready for Another USD Rally?

As funding strains appeared in March, the USD surged. Then the Fed stepped in with massive foreign exchange swaps as a way to lend USD to foreign central banks, intended to ultimately be lent to borrowers in need of USD.

Commentary

The Path to Average Equity Returns in the 2020s is Challenged

The returns of the 2009-2020 bull market were nothing short of extraordinary. From the 2009 low in the S&P 500 to the 2020 high, stocks gained a massive 488%, or nearly 18% on an annualized basis.

Commentary

There is Nothing Normal About the US Savings Rate

Even as the stock market chugs up the wall of worry, we were reminded today that the economic fundamentals remain mired in simply unprecedented territory.

Commentary

Keep an Eye on the Yuan & Corporate Spreads

Since the March 23, 2020 low, when the Federal Reserve announced basically unlimited liquidity via a variety of programs, corporate spreads have narrowed, and the stock market has risen substantially. In the chart below, I overlay US investment grade spreads over the S&P 500 Index.

Commentary

Here’s 5 Reasons Why Gold Miners Have Massive Outperformance in the Tank

As I write this note on a dreary Friday afternoon from Boulder, CO I am reminded of my town’s origin. Its first non-native settlers established the town 1858 as a base camp for gold and silver miners.