Commentary

Gun Sales Break Records In 2020... But Why?

Gun sales in the US have gone through the roof in 2020, especially since the widespread protests turned violent last spring in many large cities across the US. Over three million more guns have been sold since March than occurred in the same period a year ago.

Commentary

Two Huge Long-term Headwinds For US Economy

As long-time readers know, I tend to be upbeat about the economy and the stock and bond markets, and that has certainly proven to be the correct position to hold over the last 20-30 years.

Commentary

Long Forgotten Economic & Market Threat - Inflation

The US inflation rate has hovered around 1.5% over the last decade, well below the Fed’s target rate of 2% most of the time. Such low inflation for such an extended stretch is quite unusual given historical economic relationships, especially with the economy strong and the unemployment rate near historic lows late last year and earlier this year before the pandemic hit.

Commentary

Thoughts On The Economy & Soaring Bankruptcies

US Economy Suffered Record Losses in First Half 2020. August Jobs Report Came in Much Better Than Expected. Business Bankruptcies Jumped 26% in First Half 2020. Trump Boat Parades Across the Country on Saturday

Commentary

A Big Change In Fed Monetary Policy? Not Really

The Federal Reserve convenes a major economic symposium in late August each year in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the popular ski resort. Lots of Fed officials, banking big-wigs and other financial market players attend each year, along with a collection of media correspondents who pay thousands of dollars to be there.

Commentary

Is Our National Debt $26.7 Trillion Or Only $20 Trillion?

Our total national debt today is now $26.7 trillion, the largest ever, as reported by the Treasury Department and tracked by the US Debt Clock. There is no argument over that figure. However, our total national debt is broken down into two components: “Debt Held by the Public” and “Intra-Governmental Debt.”

Commentary

Gold Is Soaring - Is Big Inflation Next?

There are numerous factors which can cause the price of gold to rise significantly, but I don’t believe inflation fears are the main driver behind gold’s recent surge. I believe it has much more to do with uncertainty and fears surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. But I’m getting ahead of myself.

Commentary

Brace Yourself For A Negative GDP Report On Thursday

The Commerce Department will release its first estimate of second quarter Gross Domestic Product on Thursday of this week, and it is widely expected to be really bad due to the economic lockdown earlier this year. Most forecasters expect 2Q GDP to be down 30-50%, making it the worst quarterly downturn since the Great Depression.

Commentary

Gun Sales Skyrocketing, Big Banks Hoarding Cash - Why?

What we’re seeing in our big cities today is unprecedented. No one knows where this violence is headed, how to stop it, or when it will end. We’ve turned a new corner in our country, and I don’t think anyone knows for sure where it will lead us. It is certainly not a good direction.

Commentary

National Debt Tops $26.5 Trillion, 2020 Deficit Could Hit $6 Trillion

I haven’t written about our national debt in some time, largely because I feel like a broken record no one wants to hear anymore. This year, however, we’ve seen our national debt explode as never before. For that reason, I feel obliged to bring it up once again.

Commentary

Record June Jobs, But The Recession May Not Be Over

For the second month in a row, the Labor Department reported last week that the economy added a record number of new jobs in June, vastly outpacing forecasters’ pre-report estimates. This far better than expected report is leading many economists to refigure their growth forecasts higher for the second half of this year.

Commentary

Predictions of Strong Economic Rebound Are Too Optimistic

Today, we’ll take a look at some of the rosy forecasts for second half US economic growth and why I think they could prove to be far too optimistic. Let’s get into the numbers.

Commentary

Why Stocks Are Surging During COVID Crisis/Recession

I want to begin today by sharing with you the latest question I am getting over and over from colleagues and friends. That question is: How have the stock markets rallied to record or near-record highs in light of the terrible economic news due to the coronavirus crisis?

Commentary

Are Negative Interest Rates Coming To The US?

There is a growing debate in financial circles over whether the US Federal Reserve should move to a negative interest rate policy in an effort to stimulate the economy during the coronavirus crisis. Even President Trump has said more than once in recent weeks that he favors negative interest rates and considers them a “gift.”

Commentary

Are We Facing Inflation, Deflation Or Maybe Both?

With government spending clearly out of control and a budget deficit expected to top $4 trillion this year alone, more and more forecasters are warning that inflation is going to soar later this year and next.