Commentary

Monday Morning Outlook: Respect Millennials

Politics today is in large part about pitting one group against another and convincing one side they've been treated unfairly. One of those groups is the younger generation of workers known as Millennials, who are supposedly up to their eyeballs in debt and lagging well behind prior generations.

Commentary

Focus on Data, Not Spin

In 2009, after overly strict mark-to-market accounting rules were altered, we said the Financial Crisis was over. It was hard to get our voice heard, though, because both sides of the political aisle were busy saying the economy stunk.

Commentary

Fed Set to Announce Taper in November

No changes to monetary policy today, but plenty of changes to the outlook for monetary policy in the next few years.

Commentary

China Worries Unwarranted

Prior to today, the S&P 500 index was down four days in a row, and many market observers are blaming China, specifically the recent news about Evergrande, a major Chinese real estate company that looks to be heading to default on its loans.

Commentary

Resist Inflation Complacency

Some analysts and investors breathed a big sigh of relief on inflation when it was reported last week that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August versus a consensus expected 0.4%. But we think any sense of relief is premature.

Commentary

Stocks Versus the Economy

If you've read our two most recent Monday Morning Outlooks, you know we raised our forecast for the S&P 500, but lowered our forecast for real GDP growth. How can that be?

Commentary

COVID-19 Tracker

We have received a significant number of requests to continue publishing the COVID-19 tracker. Read more to view the report.
Commentary

Can the US "Fully Recover"?

In early 2020, when COVID hit, the unemployment rate in the United States was 3.5%, wages for low-income earners were rising faster than wages for high-income earners, living standards were rising...the economy was on a roll.

Commentary

Monday Morning Outlook

We've been consistently bullish on stocks since 2009. This bullishness has paid off, although not every year; stocks fell in 2015 and 2018.

Commentary

Fed Being Tempted Into SIN

Narratives get more energy these days because of social media and cable TV, but they've always existed.

Commentary

Capitalism vs. Socialism

As we wrote last week, it's not possible to analyze the economy these days without focusing heavily on what government is doing.

Commentary

Projecting Government

In an ideal world, analysts and investors wouldn't have to spend much time, perhaps none at all, trying to manage around changes in government policy.

Commentary

The Seeds of Stagflation

Last week, the government reported real GDP in the US grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter and was up 6.4% at an annual rate in the first half of 2021.

Commentary

Are We There Yet?

It's the question that parents around the world know all too well, "Are we there yet?" That was the key question coming into today's Fed meetings. The answer? Not yet, but we're getting closer.

Commentary

Inflation, Shutdowns, Spending

Someone once said, "technology has never moved this fast, and at the same time, will never move this slow again."