Commentary

Biden and Powell Versus Summers and Dudley

One of the best economic debates that's happening right now isn't between Republicans and Democrats or liberals versus conservatives, it's between policymakers who want to go full steam ahead with as much fiscal and monetary "stimulus" as possible and center-left economists who worry about the economic effects of over-stimulating the economy.

Commentary

Resisting the Budget Blowout

President Biden and Congress agreed to a roughly $2 trillion stimulus back in March and are now contemplating two new additional multi-trillion dollar pieces of legislation, on both infrastructure and social spending, as well as some massive tax hikes

Commentary

Closer, But Still Not Close

Nobody expected the Fed would lift interest rates today

Commentary

The Sugar High Economy

Mix extremely loose monetary policy, a federal government cutting checks like it’s going out of style, and extensive roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines, and what do you get?

Commentary

Yes, Stocks Are Still Cheap

The S&P 500 fell almost 50% between mid-February and mid-March 2020, during the initial stages of the pandemic.

Commentary

Housing Boom to Continue

Housing prices have soared in the past year. The national Case-Shiller index is up 11.2% in the past twelve months, the largest gain since 2005-06.

Commentary

Jobs Are Booming

When the scientists said “15 days to slow the spread,” some of us actually believed that by Easter the shutdowns would end.

Commentary

Tax Hikes Are Coming

The federal budget deficit hit an all-time record high of $3.1 trillion last year.

Commentary

The Fed, Regulation, and MMT - Irresponsible

You've got to hand it to the Federal Reserve. With the cleverness of a seasoned head coach – think Jim Boeheim leading Syracuse in the NCAA basketball tournament – they figured out how to accomplish a great deal while making it look like they didn't have many tools at their disposal.

Commentary

The Fed Speaks Softly, But Carries Some Big Numbers

At its most recent meeting the Federal Reserve made no changes to monetary policy and minimal changes to its statement, simply acknowledging that some economic indicators have "turned up" recently while also noting that inflation remains below 2.0%.

Commentary

Inflation and The Fed

We believe inflation is still, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon. It is defined as "too much money chasing too few goods and services" – but that doesn't mean every period of higher inflation is going to look exactly the same.

Commentary

The Fed Can't Fix COVID Lockdowns

The Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 gave the Fed a “dual mandate” – to promote maximum sustainable employment and stable prices. Over the years, the meaning of these two mandates has changed.

Commentary

Powell Disses Uncle Milty

Those of us who are concerned about inflation increasing faster than the Federal Reserve anticipates are focusing on the rapid increase in the M2 measure of the money supply.

Commentary

The Greatest Possible Stimulus

After receiving the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus from China, it took Moderna just two days (two days!!) to generate the sequence of the vaccine. In less than a month, they produced the first clinical batch of the mRNA-1273 vaccine that has now seen tens of millions of doses distributed.

Commentary

Overstimulation on the Way

Things are looking up for the US economy. Later this week we'll get an update on real GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2020. We estimate that'll be revised up to a 4.3% annual rate of growth from a prior estimate of 4.0%.