Interest Rates and Their Impact On Stock Values
Many investors are attempting to justify higher stock “valuations” because interest rates are at historical lows. I would agree that lower interest rates could affect “market valuations” based on the simple law of supply and demand. The concept is simple, when fixed income offers lower returns it logically stimulates more demand for equities where higher returns can be found.
Apple, Microsoft, Visa: Crazy Or Crazy Like A Fox
There are technical distinctions between investing versus speculating. Nevertheless, both concepts are often thought about or utilized interchangeably. Moreover, there are nuanced distinctions between a rational or well-thought-out speculation versus outright gambling.
3 New York Stock Exchange Homebuilders: When Value and Momentum Converge
Value often comes when good companies go out of favor, this is especially true in bull markets like we have been in the last several years. Almost by definition, when stocks are out of favor it further implies that their near-term performance may not be all that attractive.
5 Midcap Magic Formula Stocks for Total Return
This week I did a complete re-read of Joel Greenblatt’s classic “The Little Book That Beats The Market.” For any of you that are not familiar with the book, Joel Greenblatt presents his magic formula for picking stocks that his research indicated will beat the market most of the time.
Alexion Pharmaceuticals: Growth At A Reasonable Price (GARP)
I find it very interesting that Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALXN) after going public in 2001, did not generate their first profit until December 2008. As we all know, this was in the throes of what is now known as the Great Recession of 2008.
FedEx Corp.: Fundamentals Support the Price Increase
After reporting better than 4th quarter results on Tuesday, the stock price of FedEx Corp. (FDX) has been on a tear. With this article, I plan to demonstrate that the fundamentals support the current price rise.
Oracle: All Important Fundamental Metrics Say Buy
I consider Oracle an attractively valued dividend growth stock with an emphasis on growth. Oracle has a long history of generating above-average growth of earnings and cash flows, and since paying its first dividend in 2009, its dividend growth has been nothing short of extraordinary.
Corporate Debt Out-Of-Control Or Smart Business: Part 2
In this part 2, I want to share an additional perspective that my research on the growing levels of corporate debt uncovered.
Why Record Corporate Debt Might Not Be So Bad: 8 Debt Laden Blue Chips: Part 1
The accelerated use of debt to fund the capital needs of publicly traded companies is clearly attributed to today’s unprecedented low cost of debt. Although we have all been trained and perhaps even indoctrinated into the belief that debt is bad, these are clearly unusual circumstances.
Newsflash: Even After Covid-19 The Market Is Not Cheap
From January 31, 2020 through March 31, 2020 the market as measured by the S&P 500 fell approximately 20%. As a result, I published an article on March 26, 2020 titled “It’s A Buyers’ Market – Choose Quality If You’re Scared: 20 A-Rated, Low-Debt Blue Chips To Consider” where I implied that the market as measured by the S&P 500 had gone from being overvalued to undervalued.
NetApp: A Dividend Kings High-Quality Total Return Selection
In today’s uncertain investing world, I believe it is extremely important to first and foremost focus on safety and quality. Since my primary investment focus is now on dividends and dividend growth, safety to me is primarily about valuation along with dividend coverage and predictability.
Final 10 S&P 500 Stocks That Rose In The Crisis: It’s A Market of Stocks: Part 3
This is Part 3 of this 3-part series looking at the final 10 stocks that rose in the crisis.
Next 10 S&P 500 Stocks That Rose In The Crisis: It’s A Market Of Stocks: Part 2
In part 1 of this 3 part series I provided a quick cursory look at 10 of 30 stocks that MarketWatch pointed out have done very well in spite of the coronavirus market crash. In that first group of 10, there were several names that were reasonably valued.
30 S&P 500 Stocks That Rose In The Crisis: It’s A Market Of Stocks: Part 1
I have long asserted that it is a market of stocks and not a stock market. Perhaps the veracity of that statement has never been clearer than it is today. We are all aware of the devastation to the stock market in general that the shutdown instigated by the coronavirus has cost
Cisco, Apple and Oracle: Strong Cash Positions Indicate Safe Long-Term Returns
During this horrible crisis, I feel very fortunate that “social distancing” is very practical and easy for my family and me. We are blessed to live in the country on a 20-acre estate with a private lake and a backyard that is steaming with wildlife.
It's a Buyers’ Market: 20 A Rated Low Debt Blue Chips to Consider
When markets get as volatile as they’ve been lately, it’s extremely difficult for investors to avoid our innate “fight or flight” response. In our states of heightened emotion (fear) our logical minds try to tell us that we are witnessing an incredible buying opportunity for long-term oriented investors.
Even With This Crisis It’s a Market of Stocks
It’s stating the obvious to say that the stock markets have been in a freefall as a result of the coronavirus. However, I think it’s also important to point out that what we have recently experienced in the stock markets more resembles a flash crash than it does a correction.
The Dow Jones – How Bad Is It?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index of 30 stocks that is often utilized as a proxy for the whole market. Since it is such a small index, I thought you all might find it interesting to see what the market looks like considering the recent volatility.
Top 10 Dividend Aristocrats to Buy In This Crazy Market
For those investors interested in investing for an increasing dividend income stream, the Dividend Aristocrats represent the crème de la crème. Standard & Poor’s produces this premier list of blue-chip dividend growth stocks that have increased their dividends for 25 consecutive years.
Recent Market Action A Value Investor’s Perspective
For some time now I have been pointing out that the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 has become moderately overvalued. However, even more to the point, I still believe that to be true even after the price corrections we have experienced recently as a result of the coronavirus.
Is the New Pfizer an Attractive Investment?
Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE) is a company in transition that will soon be smaller but hopefully more profitable. Since many of their established drugs are coming off patent, the company is divesting its older drug platform under the Upjohn brand and selling it to Mylan a leading generic pharmaceutical company. Pfizer believes that this will position them for more profitable growth going forward.
Tesla: Do the Fundamental Support the Stock Price?
The bottom line to me is that Tesla is certainly a very expensive stock today. On the other hand, there is very interesting future growth expectations that could make long-term shareholders a lot of money.
Passive and Buy-and-Hold Investing Don't Work Unless!
Legendary investor and mentor to many investing greats Benjamin Graham once aptly stated that: “investing is most intelligent when it is most businesslike.” Personally, I agree which is why I refer to what I personally adhere to and practice with my own investing as “business perspective investing.”
How To protect Your Dividend Growth Portfolio from the Pending Market Crash
Ever since I first entered the investment industry circa 1970, I have been confronted with a constant and persistent admonition about the next pending market crash. In those early days I contributed much of the negativity toward stocks to a lingering overhang from the Great Depression...
The Top 3 Medical Distributors Are On Sale: AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health and McKesson Corp.
The top 3 Medical DistributorsAmerisourceBergen (ABC), Cardinal Health (CAH) and McKesson Corp. (MCK) dominate the distribution of pharmaceuticals and are estimated to represent 90% to 95% of the market. Moreover, each are dividend growth stocks, and as a specific subsector group all appear significantly undervalued.
Interest Rates and Stock Values Truth Be Told
The idea that interest rates directly affect stock prices is a commonly held belief among many investors. There are some that even go as far as to say that the only reason the stock market is up is because interest rates have been artificially kept low by the Fed.
Value Investing Is A Long-Term Strategy and Should Be Judged Accordingly
Almost by definition, value investing rarely performs well in the short run. This is especially true when you are in a strong bull market like we’ve been in since March 2009. Most companies as represented by the S&P 500 are currently trading at fundamental multiples that are significantly above historical norms.
This is How You Can Beat the Market Without Fail
With this article I am going to present several ways that investors, especially retired investors, can beat the market without fail. However, what I will be presenting may not be what you are expecting, particularly if you have a narrow notion of what beating the market means.
Investing Is Hard Enough: Here Is How to Avoid Making Obvious Mistakes
The Key to Avoiding Obvious Mistakes Understanding how to value a business is the key to avoiding making obvious mistakes when purchasing or selling common stocks. When you know what your investment is worth, the market cannot take advantage of your gullibility.
Principles of Valuation Part 2: Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get
The venerable investor Warren Buffett has a real knack of putting complex concepts and ideas into simple and easily understood terms. In my opinion, his quote, “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get” is one of the more profound and important statements he has ever uttered.
When to Buy or When to Sell A Stock: Part 1
As a seasoned and grizzled veteran of the financial services industry for now going on 50 years, the most commonly asked questions I have received, and still do to this day, are: when to buy and when to sell a stock?
Cisco Systems Inc: Quality, Dividend Growth & Attractive Valuation
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) is one of the highest quality large-cap technology companies in the world. After being overvalued for most of 2019, this high-quality once pure growth stock, now dividend growth stock, has come into fair value.
For Long-Term Investors Only: It’s A Market of Stocks!
Since the beginning of April 2009, the Standard & Poor’s 500 (the stock market) has enjoyed one of the longest bull markets on record. As a result, I am starting to hear from a lot of investors that they are becoming worried that this great bull market must soon come to an end.
Even After the Recent Correction I Still Think McDonald’s Is Overvalued
This article is offered as part of our ongoing FAST Graphs YouTube request series. Although time does not allow me to cover every stock that is requested, I do try to provide analyze out loud videos on stocks that either are currently in the news, or that offer special lessons on valuation.
CBS and Viacom Merger: High Risk Tempered by Extremely Low Valuation
14 years ago the Redstone family spun out Viacom (VIA) from CBS Corp (CBS). However, the companies have decided to once again merge into what they hope will become a dominant entertainment company. Given that the entertainment market is extremely competitive and quite risky, future visibility is very muddy in my humble opinion.
Forecasting the Future: Part 2
The primary purpose of this article on the importance of forecasting the future results of a business is offered to illustrate the conceptual validity of forecasting earnings (and every other metric) as the key to long-term investor success.
Forecasting Future Business Results are The Key to Successful Stock Investing: Part 1
As investors, we can learn a great deal from the past about the businesses we are contemplating investing in. However, as investors, we must also recognize that we can only truly invest in the future.
Why Value Investing Works for All Stock Categories
I would like to credit my good friend Jeff Miller for providing the inspiration for this article. In his recent article titled “Weighing The Week Ahead: Falling Confidence A Possible Threat To Markets” he suggested a must read article by Safal Niveshak titled “Why Value Investing Works.”
Time In The Market and Value Investing Is Not Market Timing
I am a value investor, and all my investments are made with a long-term objective in mind. Consequently, I am a believer that time in the market is often what matters most. However, I will qualify that remark by saying that you also make your money on the buy side.
Valuation Is More Important Than Politics or Interest Rates: And Most Stocks Are Overvalued Today
My personal investing strategy is based on the simple logic and reality that great businesses are by definition, better than average. Therefore, to my way of thinking, it logically follows that the best investment returns would be achieved by investing in the best businesses that you could identify.
A Very Attractive High-Yield Dividend Growth Stock You’ve Never Heard Of
This FAST Graphs analyze out loud video will cover a mid-cap dividend growth stock that many may not be familiar with. However, I believe this particular dividend growth stock offers an intriguing opportunity of high current yield, above-average growth yield and enticing capital appreciation potential based on its low valuation.
Why A 15 P/E Ratio Is Fair Value for Most Companies: Part 2
To me, fair value, as it relates to common stock investments, is manifest when the current earnings yield provided by the company’s profits compensates me for the risk I am taking by providing both a realistic and acceptable return on my invested capital.
The Essence of Valuation is Soundness Not Rate of Return: Part 1
When it comes to writing about investing in common stocks, my favorite theme typically revolves around valuation. In fact, I once had a reader dub me “Mr. Valuation.” Which, I might add was very flattering to me.
The Worst Reasons To Sell A Stock
An article on when to sell a stock would not be complete without some discussion about what I consider to be the worst reason to sell a stock. Ironically, this reason may be the one that is most commonly implemented by investors.
Microsoft Important Lessons in Valuation: Part 1
Before I get too deep into this article, I want to start out by stating that Microsoft (MSFT) has long been one of my favorite companies. Many years ago, I invested in Microsoft as a pure growth stock and sold it in 2000 when it became dangerous overvalued after making a very healthy long-term profit.
Answering the Question: When to Sell a Stock-Part 1A
The most common complaint that I have heard from investors over my 49+ years in the financial services industry is as follows: “Everyone wants to tell me what to buy and when, but no one ever tells me when to sell.”
The Retirement Dividend Growth Portfolio Concentrated Or Diversified: Part 3
The key to success is to find and implement the strategy that best fits your own unique goals, objectives, needs, and most importantly – risk tolerances.
Designing The Appropriate Common Stock Retirement Portfolio: Stock Selection Options: Part 2
This article is a refresh and an update of an article I originally posted in 2015. However, the principles I am presenting are timeless and worthy of being revisited.
Beware the Valuations of The Dividend Kings Fortress Portfolio
One of the great benefits for subscribing to The Dividend Kings service are the carefully-selected portfolios presented in our portfolio tracker. However, I want to caution the subscriber that these portfolios should not be looked at as simply cut-and-paste investment options.
Principles for Designing A Dividend Growth Portfolio for Retirement: Part 1
This article is a refresh and an update of an article I originally posted in 2015. However, the principles I am presenting are timeless and worthy of being revisited. Moreover, I have updated the supporting examples to more precisely reflect our current market environment.
Debunking the Growth Beats Value or Value Beats Growth Myths
One of my greatest pet peeves as a long-time investment professional is the industries’ notion that stocks can be generally categorized into only two styles commonly referred to as growth investing or value investing.
AbbVie Has It All: Growth, Dividend Growth and Compelling Valuation
I have held AbbVie (ABBV) since it was originally spun off from Abbott Labs. Moreover, I have been aggressively adding to my position for clients needing current income and dividend growth.
Nice Work Dividend Sensei – But I Choose Lowe’s
I am a firm believer and ardent supporter of conducting comprehensive research and due diligence on any company (stock) you might consider investing in. However, I have also experienced the reality that far too many investors make their decisions based on opinions, emotions or vague ideas about a company...
Ignore Political and Economic Forecasts: Mind Your Owned Businesses
In his Berkshire Hathaway 1994 annual report Warren Buffett said ignore political and economic forecasts. I considered this one of the more profound pieces of investment advice and wisdom that I ever came across.
Target Corp.: Defying the Retail Apocalypse
My personal anecdotal experience suggests that many investors operate under the fallacy: “my mind’s made up – don’t confuse me with the facts.” This behavior often results from only reading the headlines while skimming over the in-depth analysis that is truly needed to make a sound or prudent investing decision.
Avon is Calling: Invest In The Growth or Speculate On The Takeover
Avon’s Historical Operating Results and Price Action Since 2008 Avon’s earnings have continuously eroded and its stock price has followed. Moreover, after its dividend grew for many years, the company cut it by 18 ½% for 2012, slashed it an additional 68% in 2013 and then eliminated their dividend altogether in 2016.
McKesson Corp, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Cardinal Health Corp., CVS Health Corp: Medical Distributor
This is a follow-up to my first article in a continuing series where I will be identifying and presenting dividend growth stocks for an above-average long-term total return objective.
Invest in AmerisourceBergen for its Growth and Valuation – Speculate in a Potential Takeover
This is the first in a continuing series where I identify and present dividend growth stocks for an above-average long-term total return objective. Throughout this series I will be illustrating that there are several prudent sources of long-term return and there is also luck or chance.
3M Company: Finally, a Great Dividend Growth Company Becoming a Good Investment!
I find it serendipitous that after just completing a 19-part series on how highly valued the general market is, I get the pause that refreshes. Now please don’t read more into my words than are being offered. I still believe that the market at large is fully valued.
Slim Pickens in the Utilities Sector: Part 19
This is part 19 and the final part of my series covering all the various sectors reported by FactSet. However, the popular idea of saving the best for last does not apply in this instance.
4 Transportation Sector Research Candidates: Do You Dare Have Your Money Travel With These Stocks?
As a rule, I have never been very fascinated by the Transportation Sector. This is especially true regarding airlines and air transport companies. Nevertheless, there are two airlines and two air freight carriers in the Transportation Sector that I felt comfortable featuring in this article.
5 Rare Fairly Valued Companies in the Technology Services Sector: Part 17
Technology Services Sector covered in this article is a sector where overvaluation is rampant. In other words, this is currently a hot sector where sound valuation has been thrown out the window in favor of what I can only describe as hype and speculation.
Is the Death of Retail Trade Greatly Exaggerated? Part 16
Simply Google the phrase “what effect is Amazon having on retail” and you’ll discover a significant amount of information, articles and theories. Personally, I found the following article written by Susan Ward that articulated the sales of brick-and-mortar versus online to be quite illuminating.
Investment Opportunities in the Producer Manufacturing Sector: Part 15
Although I consider the overall stock market as represented by the S&P 500 to be overvalued, not all stocks are overvalued.
12 Exceptional Investments in the Process Industries Sector: Part 14
One of the main goals of this series of articles is to illustrate the significant differences between individual stocks, and the significant differences between different sectors. Therefore, from this perspective, I have been attempting to illustrate the “nature of the beast” for each of the sectors I have covered.
Are stocks in the Non-Energy Minerals Sector Investable? Part 13
The Non-Energy Minerals Sector is mostly comprised of very cyclical and typically commodity-based companies. Consequently, very few companies in this sector offer the consistency and predictability that prudent and/or conservative investors might require.
10 Fairly Valued MLPs: Are the High Yields Worth the Risk and Effort? Part 12
A major goal of this series on sectors is to illustrate the reality that it is a market of stocks rather than a stock market. With this article I am technically covering the Industrial Services Sector.
Undervalued Growth and Dividend Growth in Health Technology: Part 11
Although many Health Technology Sector companies have significantly outperformed the market on a long-term basis, they have significantly underperformed the market since the beginning of 2015.
6 Health Services Stocks Offering Growth at a Reasonable Price: Part 10
The Health Services Sector is one of the smallest sectors as presented by FactSet as it only contains 137 companies out of more than 19,000 in the US and Canadian universe.
There is More Value to be Found in the Finance Sector than in any other Sector: Part 9
I found more value in the Finance Sector than I did in any other sector that I screened. All in all, I identified 131 attractively valued companies out of the 1,888 companies in the Finance Sector.
16 Dividend Income Opportunities in the Energy Minerals Sector, but Beware the Nature of the Beast:
The Energy Minerals Sector is comprised of 619 companies. And, as it is with every sector, they come in all shapes, sizes and colors. However, a common attribute that is shared by most companies in this sector is a significant amount of cyclicality in their operating results, i.e., earnings and cash flows.
9 Opportunities in Electronic Technology, The Future of Everything: Part 7
My primary objective is to illustrate how different individual companies are from each other, and even how different companies operating in the same sector can be. It is a market of stocks not a stock market.
Is There Real Value in These 7 Distribution Services Companies? Part 6
As I stated in previous articles in this series, my primary objective is to provide the reader with a clear perspective of just how different individual stocks are and how different companies operating in different sectors are.
9 Inexpensive Consumer Services Sector Stocks: Part 5
As I stated in the introduction in Part 4 of this series, my primary objective is to provide the reader with a clear perspective of just how different individual stocks are and how different companies operating in different sectors are.
11 Investable Consumer Non-Durables: Finding Value in Food, Footwear, Apparel, Alcohol and Tobacco:
My primary objective with this series of articles (identifying attractively valued stocks in different sectors) is to provide the reader with a clear perspective of just how different individual stocks are and how different companies operating in different sectors are.
Finding Value In Consumer Durables – A Very Diverse Sector: Part 3
This is part 3 of a series where I have conducted a simple screening looking for value over the overall market based on industry classifications and subindustry classifications reported by FactSet Research Systems, Inc.
Finding Value In The Communication Sector Is Easy Today – Finding Growth Is A Different Matter (Pa
This is part 2 of a series where I have conducted a simple screening looking for value over the overall market based on industry classifications and subindustry classifications reported by FactSet Research Systems, Inc.
Love Bear Markets – Look at All the Value It Has Brought Us! Part 1
Although most investors hate bearish stock market activity, value investors – like yours truly -relish them. Moreover, bearish market activity becomes especially welcome after extended periods of high valuation like we have been experiencing since calendar year 2014. High valuations make it very difficult for value investors to find attractive common stock investments.
Have these 5 Best Defense (Stocks) Become the Best Offense (Stocks)?
Nothing clears the pallet of a diehard value investor better than a good old-fashioned bear market. In calendar year 2018 – and especially December 2018 – we were given what I would call a bear market. However, not all bear markets are the same.
Don’t Be a Stock Market Victim!
The primary objective of this article is to help the reader put this recent bad market in perspective and simultaneously provide lessons in valuation and how to think about stock prices. There have been many sage pieces of wisdom that have been provided to investors by investing greats.
9 More A Rated or Better Attractively Valued Dividend Growth Stocks
In part 2B of my current series on building and diversifying a dividend growth portfolio I presented 20 dividend growth stocks. However, in the FAST Graph analyze out loud video I only covered 11 of the 20 companies, one for each of the major sectors. As a result, I have had requests to provide a FAST Graph analyze out loud video on the remaining 9 companies.
Diversifying by Sector: 20 High-Quality Attractive Dividend Growth Stocks Rated A- Or Better (Part 2
Introduction This current series of articles could be summarized as a review of ways to construct and diversify a common stock portfolio. In part 1 found here I discussed various viewpoints on how many stocks a portfolio should hold. In Part 2A found here I presented and discussed Peter Lynch’s 6 general categories of stocks.
Did IBM Buy Red Hat at a Fair Price?
On October 23, 2015 I wrote an article titled “Retirees: I Did Not Buy IBM to Sell; It’s about the Dividend Income Stupid.” At the time I published the article, I was long International Business Machine (IBM) and remain long today. With the article I attempted to illustrate why I was including IBM in retirement portfolios.
Stock Selection Options by Category: Part 2A
In part 1 of this series titled “How Many Stocks Should I Own?” found here, I focused primarily on how many stocks an investor might need to hold in a stock portfolio for adequate diversification. In this part 2, my focus will shift to category selections.
How Many Stocks Should I Own? Part 1
One of the most commonly asked questions I receive from investors is: how many stocks should I put in my portfolio? This is a widely debated subject that is most commonly referred to as concentrated versus widely diversified portfolio construction.
IBM Fundamental Analysis by the Numbers
All investing is not done with the same objectives or goals in mind. This applies to investing in common stocks just as it does to investing in real estate, commodities, fixed income vehicles, fine art or collectibles – and any other investment that comes to mind. There are times when investors are looking for maximum total return, which is often automatically associated with buying a stock.
Building a Dividend Growth Portfolio from Scratch: 15 A Rated or Better Fairly Valued Opportunities
We remain in one of the longest bull markets in history. Generally, with bull markets stocks tend to become highly valued. Additionally, we also continue to find ourselves in a low interest rate environment based on historical standards.
Earnings Growth Drives Total Return and Dividend Income
This article was inspired by an interesting debate between two commenters on my most recent article “Why a 15 P/E Ratio Represents Fair Value for Most (Not All) Companies: FedEx – Part 2.” In a nutshell, the argument revolved around whether dividends were a driver or a contributor to total return.
Why a 15 P/E Ratio Represents Fair Value for Most (not all) Companies: FedEx Part 2
One of my favorite Warren Buffett quotes is “investing is most intelligent when it is most businesslike.” The reason this quote resonates so much with me is because I believe it represents the essence of value investing.
Sound Valuation Is More Important Than Time In The Market: Part 1
I believe that two of the most important investing principles that prudent investors should embrace are valuation and time in the market. Consequently, the title of this article is mildly misleading, because both concepts are extremely important towards achieving long-term investing success. In other words, I believe attempting to argue the importance of one over the other is a waste of time and energy.
Here’s Why Valuation Determines Total Dividend Payments for Overvalued Stocks: Johnson & Johnson
In my most recent article a reader made a comment where a question was asked that I believe deserved a good answer. The following excerpt of the comment really reached out to me because this person claims to have been asking this question for 5 years without receiving a good answer.
WEC Energy Grp Inc. and NextEra Energy Inc.: My 2 Favorite Utility Companies, But I Hate Their Stock
It is quite easy to get caught up, and quite hard to avoid getting caught up in a great bull market like the one we are currently in. However, it’s important to remind ourselves that: “everybody is a genius in a bull market.”
7 China-based Stocks for High Growth at a Reasonable Price
China has rapidly become the second largest economy in the world – second only to the United States, and by some calculations the largest. As a result, China also has some of the fastest-growing publicly traded companies on the planet.
FAST Graphs Analysis of 7 Chinese Stocks
Autohome (NYSE:ATHM), Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Baidu (NasdaqGS:BIDU), JD.com (NasdaqGS:JD), Weibo Corp (NasdaqGS:WB), 58.com (NYSE:WUBA), Yirendai (NYSE:YRD).
Are FANG Investors Playing the Role of Greater Fools?
Introduction The greater fool theory is an investing metaphor that suggests that if you pay more for a stock than it is worth (intrinsic value indicates) that you are only doing this on the basis that a fool greater than you will come along and willingly pay you more.
4 Big Advantages of Investing in Undervalued Dividend Growth Stocks: Here Are 12 to Consider
Value investing is a proven long-term investing strategy that produces above-average results at below-average risk – if engaged in properly. However, there are four primary advantages to investing in undervalued dividend growth stocks that facilitate strong long-term performance while simultaneously lowering risk.
Update on Owens & Minor Inc.: An Undervalued Speculation or a Value Trap?
Owens & Minor Inc. reported earnings yesterday and simultaneously revised their 2018 earnings outlook lower. As fate would have it, I produced an article and a video where I highlighted 12 undervalued dividend growth research candidates which included Owens & Minor.
My Dirty Dozen Undervalued Dividend Growth Stocks
Introduction Relative to historical norms the overall stock market as measured by the S&P 500 is overvalued with the current blended P/E ratio of 19.2. Historically, the S&P 500 would be considered fairly-valued when its P/E ratio was between 15 to 16.
25 Real-Life Examples: How High Valuation Can Hurt Investors, Let Me Count the Ways
It almost every article I have ever published, I talk about valuation in one manner or another. So much so, that readers have dubbed me Mr. Valuation. The primary reason I am so obsessed about valuation is because I believe it is one of the most important and yet mostly ignored and overlooked concepts in the investing world.
Long-term Microsoft Shareholders Your Money May Be in Jeopardy
Microsoft (MSFT) reported strong 4th quarter and fiscal year 2018 earnings. The company’s earnings per share beat the analyst estimates by $.05 and their revenue of $30.09 billion beat analyst estimates by $860 million. All in all, it was a great quarter and investors initially responded positively in after-hours trading.
Electronic Arts Inc.: Rationally Valued Based on History Overvalued Based on Future Growth
At the request of one of our subscribers to our YouTube channel I offer the following analyze out loud video on the growth stock Electronic Arts, Inc (EA). In the long run, earnings determine market price and the rate of change of earnings growth will determine a company’s valuation past, present and future.
Coca-Cola: FAST Fundamental Analysis
Coke is one of the most, if not the most, recognized brands in the world. As a stock, The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is a blue-chip Dividend Aristocrat that has increased its dividend for 56 consecutive years. The company is A+ rated by S&P Capital IQ, offers a current dividend yield of 3.6% and a market cap of more than $184 billion. Even though nothing that I’ve said so far is likely to be news to most people, there is a reason for me mentioning these things.
PepsiCo: Rare Opportunity to Buy at a Better Valuation: Part 6
PepsiCo (PEP) is a Dividend Aristocrat, Champion and blue-chip stalwart that has increased its dividend for 46 consecutive years. Therefore, it should be no surprise that just as we saw with Procter & Gamble in part 5, this blue-chip stalwart has traditionally commanded a higher valuation (earnings multiple) than the average stock.
It Is No Longer a Gamble Investing in Procter & Gamble: Part 5
To put Procter & Gamble’s current valuation into perspective, this blue-chip can be purchased today with a 3.7% current dividend yield which is hovering around the highest it has been over the past two decades. Furthermore, Procter & Gamble appears attractively valued over virtually every rational valuation metric that prudent value investors might consider.
Campbell Soup Company: High-Yield and Speculative Capital Gain Potential-Part 4
This is the fourth of what will be a long-running series highlighting dividend growth stocks that have technically entered bear market territory. Many investors define a bear market as when prices fall at least 20%. After coming out of the true bear market inspired by the Great Recession, stocks have generally been enjoying a very strong and long-lasting bull market.
3M Company: It Didn’t Take a Crystal Ball to See That It Was Overvalued: Part 3
Regular readers of my work will attest to the fact that I am an avid proponent of valuation. So much so, that I cannot recall writing an article where I didn’t discuss the importance of only investing in a stock when it was fairly-valued, or better yet – undervalued.
Dividend Growth Stocks in a Stealth Bear Market! Kimberly-Clark Corporation: Part 2
In part 1 found here of this multi-part series I discussed how several blue-chip dividend growth stocks have already entered a bear market. Therefore, I thought it would be helpful to provide FAST Graphs analyze out loud videos on several dividend growth stocks that have corrected from high valuation levels to more reasonable levels.
Have You Noticed That Many Dividend Stocks are Finally in a Bear Market? General Mills Inc.: Part 1
For quite some time I have been complaining that most best-of-breed dividend growth stocks were overvalued. Frankly, for the most part I continue to hold that opinion. On the other hand, I am also starting to see what I’ll call a stealth bear market for many dividend growth stocks.
What Can I Expect to Make If I Invest in Johnson & Johnson Today?
Overview AAA rated Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has produced one of the most impeccable and consistent long-term records of fundamental results and growth. No matter whether you are measuring earnings, cash flows or dividends, you will be hard-pressed to find any company in any industry with a more consistent and complete record of operating excellence...
The Final 10 of 50 Faster Growing Dividend Growth Stocks: Part 5
This is the fifth of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article, I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates with moderate to higher yields in addition to the initial 40 that I presented...
10 Fairly Valued Dividend Growth Stocks for Total Return: Part 4
This is the fourth of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article, I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates with moderate to higher yields...
The S&P 500 is Overvalued These 10 Dividend Growth Stocks Are Not: Part 3
This is the third of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates with moderate to higher yields in addition to the initial 20 that I presented...
10 More of 50 Fairly-Valued Dividend Growth Stocks Offering Moderately High Yields: Part 2
This is the second of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates.
While Most Dividend Growth Stocks Remain Too Expensive – Here Are 50 That Are Not! Part 1 of 5
The Great Recession of 2008 – which ended in the spring of 2009 – brought on one of the greatest and longest bull markets in modern history. For true value-oriented dividend growth investors, the recession created a virtual cornucopia of excellent dividend growth stock investment opportunities that existed until the end of August 2013.
Has the Lithium Bubble Burst or Is It Just Leaking Rarefied Air?
Over the last couple of years lithium producers and miners have enjoyed a parabolic jump in their stock prices and market caps. As I will later illustrate, much of the gains for lithium related companies have come as a result of the “hype” surrounding electric automobile development.
Why We Sold Walmart - It’s Not Why You Think
Introduction Walmart’s stock price took a bath early last week, and there are a lot of opinions regarding where the stock price now sits. The catalyst was their 4th quarter and fiscal year-end 2018 annual report (note: Walmart has a January 31 fiscal year end).
Has Amazon (Jeff Bezos) Taught This Old Value Dog a New Trick?
There is the old adage: “you can’t teach an old dog new tricks.” Well, I have been a “card-carrying” and fully committed value investor for more than 45 years now. I think that qualifies me as an “old” value investing dog.
Peter Lynch Taught Me to Invest in Ultra Beauty Inc.
In his best-selling book “One up on Wall Street” Peter Lynch included this subtitle on his cover: “How to use what you already know to make money in the stock market.” And later in the book he talks about “the power of common knowledge.” Stating it over simplistically, Peter Lynch often talked about getting his best ideas from observing his family’s shopping habits.
Owens & Minor Inc.: Irresistible Yield, Irresistible Valuation
Recently, I have had several requests to write an article about Owens & Minor Inc (OMI). I had not looked at this company in a while, and boy oh, boy, was I surprised at what I found.
Invest In Walgreens Or CVS – Speculate In Rite Aid
For many years now, investing in healthcare related stocks has presented me with a conundrum of sorts. Demographic forces, primarily the graying of America (and the world for that matter), suggests powerful future growth potential and demand for healthcare related products and services. On the other hand, healthcare and its costs have long been a political hotbed.
Mister Valuation plans for 2018: A New Year a New and Better Approach
Every year I take the holidays off in order to reflect on what I have accomplished for the year, but more importantly, to think deeply about and contemplate what I might do better in the upcoming New Year. This process has provided me with numerous inspirations over the years, and this particular year was no exception.
Cardinal Health: A Dividend Aristocrat the Risk Is Already Priced In-Part 2 of 7
As a value investor, I am totally cognizant of the reality that attractively valued bargains are hard to find in a strong bull market. Moreover, as an experienced value investor I clearly understand that low valuations in a raging bull market are usually associated with issues and challenges sometimes real, sometimes imaginary. The key to success is to identify when current problems are temporary, thereby creating long-term opportunity.
Aflac: A Valuation Conundrum? Fairly Valued Dividend Aristocrats: Part 1 of 7
Aflac (AFL) is a Dividend Aristocrat that has increased its dividend for 35 consecutive years. However, it is only one of seven Dividend Aristocrats that I consider attractively valued in light of the current bull market. Therefore, this will be the first in a series of seven articles where I will cover these seven attractively valued Dividend Aristocrats.
Celgene: Growth At A Reasonable Price Even On Revised Guidance
This article is an update to my original article on Celgene (CELG) published on June 22, 2017. Celgene reported their financial results yesterday October 26, 2017, and although the quarter was good, lowered guidance crushed the stock price. In my opinion, some of the sag in price was justified, but for the most part an overreaction.
Are These 5 Dow Stocks As Cheap As They Appear?: Part 5 of 5
This is the final installment of the five-part series where I examined the past operating histories and valuations of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks. With this 5 Part series I attempted to cover the 30 Dow stocks in order of highest valuations to lowest.
Why Are These 6 Dow Stocks Fairly Valued?: Part 4 of 5
Thus far, with the first 3 parts of this five-part series, we’ve examined 60% (18 of 30) of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. What we found so far were that the majority of these constituents are currently overvalued or at least fully valued. Finally, with this Part 4, we will examine 6 additional Dow constituents that appear fairly valued with blended P/E ratios of 14-16.
Are These The 6 Best Stocks In The Dow Jones Industrial Average? – Part 3 Of 5
In Part 1 and Part 2 of this series I covered 12 of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks that I considered the most expensive of the index. With this part 3 I will be looking at 6 additional Dow stocks that for the most part I would consider fully valued to only moderately overvalued.
6 More Expensive Stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average: Part 2 of 5
In part 1 of this five-part series, I covered what I considered the 6 most expensive stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index of 30 stocks. With this part 2, I’m going to cover 6 additional Dow stocks that I consider overvalued currently. So far, these two articles represent approximately 40% of the stocks in the Dow Jones that appear overvalued.
The 6 Most Expensive Stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average: Part 1 of 5
When the Dow Jones Industrial Average first hit 20,000 in January of this year it generated quite a buzz within the financial community. Since January the Dow Jones Index has continued to rise and currently is over 22,700. However, the Dow Jones is not the only market index that is currently sitting at or near all-time highs. The broader S&P 500 index is also at a historic peak.
What Could I Realistically Make If I Invested in Apple Today?
Just as it always does, Apple’s (AAPL) Keynote event generated quite a buzz. In addition to announcing several new products and upgrades, this year’s event inaugurated the Steve Jobs Theater at Apple Park. And as usual, reactions to the presentation have been quite strong.
My Visa Long is Getting Long in the Tooth
Over my lifetime I have invested in many different things. In the process of doing that, I have learned that there are really only two types of investors. As an investor, you are either active or passive. Being active implies directly managing or being in control of your investment.
Choosy Investors Choose J.M. Smucker and The Dividend Adds Value
The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) is a “Dividend Contender” that has increased its dividend for 20 consecutive years. After being overvalued for most of fiscal year 2017 (fiscal year ends in April) the company has since fallen into attractive valuation territory.
Costco After the Recent Correction-Overvalued Or Undervalued?
This is the fourth in a series of articles where I will cover popular and/or high profile stocks. The primary objective of this series will be to put a spotlight on the importance of forecasting future growth prior to making an investment decision.
Searching for Alphabet’s True Worth? Should we Google it?
This is the third in a series of articles where I will cover popular and/or high profile stocks. The primary objective of this series will be to put a spotlight on the importance of forecasting future growth prior to making an investment decision.
Priceline: A Growth Powerhouse – Forecast Profits and/or Cash Flow Not Prices!
This is the second in a series of articles where I will cover popular and/or high profile stocks. The primary objective of this series will be to put a spotlight on the importance of forecasting future growth prior to making an investment decision.
Nvidia: Forecast Profits and/or Cash Flow Not Prices!
This will be the first in a series of articles where I will cover popular and/or high profile stocks. The primary objective of this series will be to put a spotlight on the importance of forecasting future growth prior to making an investment decision.
Get Real About Assessing Your Stock Investments: Growth And Value Impact Capital Appreciation
I believe, and there is plenty of evidence to back my belief, that current market conditions are at an extreme. Although rare, it’s not unusual for aberrant market action to occur. Warren Buffett once said: “The fact that people will be full of greed, fear or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable.”
Could This Be Why Warren Buffett Sold General Electric Bought Synchrony?
Warren Buffett has long been considered the consummate value investor. His penchant for value investing is generally attributed to his relationship with the renowned father of value investing Ben Graham. However, what is often overlooked is the influence that partner Charlie Munger brought to Warren Buffett’s investing philosophy.
Lowe’s Companies Inc.: Attractively Valued Dividend Aristocrat for Total Return
Much of my dividend growth investing is currently focused on looking for high quality dividend growth stocks that are yielding 3% or better. The reason is quite simple. I am managing dividend growth portfolios for clients that are retired and require at least a yield of 3% or better in order to live on.
This Is Not Your Grandfather’s AT&T
I have had several readers request that I do an article on AT&T (T). Since the company has just reported earnings, which have thus far received a strong and positive reaction from Wall Street, I thought now would be a good time.
Should You Care That The Market Is Overvalued- It Depends!
Most investors suffer from what I believe is an unhealthy (unprofitable) obsession with the stock market. Financial writers and professional investors never tire about offering up their opinion on what the market will do next – especially short term. Individual investors also are deeply concerned with how the markets are doing on a daily basis. To me this only makes sense if you actually own the “stock market” i.e., an index fund.
Demystifying the Amazon Valuation Dilemma
Amazon: the Valuation Dark Side It is no secret that Amazon (AMZN) has been a disruptive force, especially relating to the retail sector. On the other hand, the company is also an enigma to the value focused fundamental investor such as yours truly.
The Active versus Passive Performance Debate Is Nonsensical
One of the most hotly contested debates in finance is the argument over which is better – active or passive investing. Moreover, this debate has spurred numerous academic studies that claim to identify whether passive outperforms active investing or vice versa.
The Most Important Stock Investment Lesson I Ever Learned
My investing career officially started in 1970. However, for several years prior to that time I was an avid and interested student of common stock investing. My initial lessons were taught by studying the behavior and practices of the most renowned stock investors.
Penske Automotive Group: Growth, Value and Dividend Growth Hiding in Plain Sight
Introduction Finding attractive investments in the dividend growth space has become a real challenge in today’s overheated market. This is especially true if you limit yourself to looking in the obvious places. Simply stated, you won’t find any bargains today in the Procter & Gambles, Johnson & Johnsons and Coca-Colas.
I Purchased United Parcel Service Inc. to Meet These Specific Objectives
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) currently offers a dividend yield in excess of 3%. Moreover, it is also available at a valuation that is slightly below historical norms. The company has provided a stable and growing dividend since it went public in 1999.
The Threat and Risk of Rising Interest Rates: Separating Fact from Fiction
The threat of rising interest rates is all the rage in financial circles today. However, the seminal question is: How real is the threat, and how much impact will rising rates have on stock prices and investor performance?
Happy 8th Birthday Bull Market! Has the S&P 500 Become Dangerously Overvalued?
Introduction According to an article in Quartz today, March 9, 2017, marks the 8th birthday of the US bull market which started on March 9, 2009. According to the article, this is the 2nd longest and 4th strongest bull market in history for the S&P 500.
j2 Global: Don’t Overlook This Impressive Growth and Dividend Income Stock
j2 Global (JCOM) was founded in 1995 and went public in 1999. During their first few years as a public company, j2 Global generated operating losses; however, since 2002 the company has strung together an impressive record of rapid growth.
5 Fairly Valued MLPs: Is the Dilution Worth the Yield and How Do You Value Them?
The 5 MLPs covered in this article offer yields ranging from 5.7% to 10.7%. Additionally, each of these MLPs appears reasonably valued given their high yields and prospects for growth. However, two of these MLPs are currently in the process of merging.
12 Dividend Growth Stocks That Meet My “Magic Formula for Dividend Growth Investors”
When investing for dividend growth there are several key attributes that I consider crucial for long-term success.
Flowers Foods: The Suit Was Settled Will the “Dough” Keep Rising?
This article is presented as an update to an article I published on Flowers Foods (FLO) on September 22, 2016. Later in this article I will provide a direct link to the original.
Is The Increase In Volatility Signaling A Dangerous Market Environment?
Over the last several weeks stock price volatility has increased significantly above norms. All of a sudden it is not uncommon to see stock prices moving 5%, 10% or more in a single trading day.
When is the PEG Ratio Superior to the P/E Ratio? Part 2
Financial metrics such as P/E ratios, price to cash flow ratios, PEG ratios, price to sales ratios, price to book value, and many others, should be thought of as tools in the investor’s toolbox.
Which Is the Better Valuation Metric? The P/E Ratio or the PEG Ratio: Part 1
Recently, I have been engaged in rather intense discussions regarding the validity of P/E ratios versus PEG ratios as proper or appropriate valuation metrics. I generally find these types of debates befuddling for a couple of reasons.
Why I Am Now Interested In CVS Health Corporation
Investing in great companies sits at the core of my investment philosophy. In this regard, I reject the idea that I invest in the stock market. To me, the stock market is simply the store I shop in to purchase interests in fine businesses.
What Rate of Return Will an Investment in Johnson & Johnson Deliver? Part 2
I never invest in a common stock without a clear expectation of the future returns that it can generate for me. Consequently, I consider this one of the most important steps in my research and due diligence process.