Commentary

Coronavirus Spreads to Equity Sectors

The coronavirus outbreak and the Democratic primary have affected sector leadership. However, we’re keeping our sector views unchanged—for now.

Commentary

The Coronavirus and Emerging Markets: Ready for a Rebound?

As a recovery in global manufacturing began to take hold in the fourth quarter of last year, commodity prices rose dramatically. Yet, emerging market (EM) stocks failed to see the similarly strong outperformance of U.S. stocks that typically accompanies rising commodity prices.

Commentary

Will Coronavirus Have a Lasting Impact?

Although stocks rebounded after a sharp drop in January, the market’s reaction to the coronavirus outbreak highlighted stock vulnerabilities.

Commentary

Sleight of Hand: Dissecting the Latest Employment Data

Friday’s jobs report, as well as other recent labor market data, has an “on the one hand; on the other hand” flavor to it.

Commentary

Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Lead to a Market Breakdown?

While it is impossible to predict the extent a virus can spread and have greater consequences than past epidemics, history indicates that the global economy and markets have been relatively immune to the effects of past epidemics. A key reason is that global health organizations are prepared for outbreaks and effective when mobilized.

Commentary

Virus: Could it be the Catalyst to Change Sentiment?

As expected, a long and strong move up in stocks attracts more and more believers and adherents, which can stretch sentiment to extremes, like now.

Commentary

Trends Diverge as Markets Enter 2020

The U.S. economy split sharply in 2019—manufacturing activity lagged services, corporate profits lagged stock performance—while investor sentiment surged. How long will these divergences continue in 2020?

Commentary

Best of What’s Around: Sticking with Large Caps

For nearly three years we’ve been tactically recommending overweighting large caps (S&P 500) and underweighting small caps (Russell 2000)—time for an update.

Commentary

2020 U.S. Market Outlook: Ramble On?

Next year is set to start on a high note, with consumers and the Fed keeping the economy and market afloat; but risks remain elevated, including trade and elections.

Commentary

Fed Holds Rates Steady, as Expected

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as expected; while signaling rates would stay in their current range through next year.

Commentary

2020 Market Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy

The U.S. economy likely will remain split in early 2020.

Commentary

Are We There Yet?

U.S. stocks continue to trade near their all-time highs but recent hiccups in trade talks have re-emphasized that a deal remains elusive, decisively unpredictable, and incomplete. Key components of the first phase have yet to be put in writing and major structural issues—such as intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers—will remain unaddressed for the foreseeable future, confirming that little-to-no material progress has been made.

Commentary

’Tis the Season for Consumer Discretionary … or Not?

While all eyes are on estimated sales throughout December, sector performance for the month is historically not impressive.

Commentary

Any Weather: Valuations Say Stocks are Cheap and Expensive

Market valuation is always a factor; but often misunderstood is the vastness of the spectrum of metrics, and the sentiment nature of valuation.

Commentary

Does The Return Of QE Mean Big Gains For Stocks In 2020?

As we head into 2020, investors should be cautious in assuming that the return of central bank balance sheet growth means stocks will follow along. The real driver of the stock market in 2020 may be the outlook for growth tied to prospects for a comprehensive U.S.-China trade deal, which may revive growth in manufacturing and corporate earnings.