No Recession or Bear Market in Sight
As much as we all crave it, asking for another year of continued economic growth and positive equity returns in 2020 may be too much.
The Ten Surprises of 2020
The Ten Surprises of 2019 worked out plenty well. While we don't go through this process with the objective of getting a high score, knowing that you have been able to anticipate some of the generally unexpected events that are going to influence the financial markets during the coming year is gratifying.
Plenty to Worry About, but Not Much to Do
Every summer for the past several decades I have organized a series of Friday lunches in eastern Long Island for serious investors. More than 100 people attend the four sessions, with 25–30 at each one. The participants include hedge fund, private equity and real estate billionaires, venture capitalists, an academic and some corporate leaders.
Sifting through the Clutter
We all complain that so much is happening so fast these days it’s hard to keep up. The plethora of events that could have a negative impact on the financial markets is being ignored in the United States, however, and investors seem to be assuming that everything going on will somehow be resolved favorably.
Recovery or Recession
The process of creating The Ten Surprises begins in the summer when I organize four lunches in the Hamptons for serious investors. About 100 people attend including hedge fund managers, private equity titans and even some academics. One of the benefits of this is that it gives me some clarity on where the consensus is, and that is essential before the Surprises can be determined.
The Ten Surprises of 2019
In September, this year looked like it was going to be one of the great years for the Ten Surprises. Oil was at $75 (West Texas Intermediate) and the S&P 500 was at 2,940. The Surprises had oil at $80 and the S&P at 3,000. The Ten Surprises are judged on whether they work out at some point during the year, not where they are at year-end.
Confronting the Market Setback
By the end of the summer I became convinced that the United States equity market was setting itself up for a powerful post mid-term election rally. The economic fundamentals were strong: unemployment was at a 40-year low and real growth was better than 3%; the Federal Reserve was raising rates...
Scoring the Market Negatives
When the February market correction ended, I had the lingering feeling that not enough damage had been done to investor complacency to provide for a sustained move higher. In spite of that, the major indexes continued to plow ahead.
Us Versus Them
Economic progress continues in the United States, making the current expansion likely to be the longest since World War II. While investors might be expecting signs that the economy’s momentum is losing its mojo because of its duration, the data coming in is some of the strongest we have seen in this cycle.
Talking Worried, but Being Complacent
Every summer for the past several decades, I have been organizing lunches for serious investors who spend at least part of their vacation time in eastern Long Island. Those attending include hedge fund wizards, real estate titans, corporate chiefs, thoughtful academics and a few others.
The Dangers of Inward Thinking
There are a number of changes taking place in the investment environment and they are likely to have an influence on the returns on financial assets for some time to come. When the world’s leading economy, with more than a fifth of global GDP, does not participate in major alliances dealing with matters of security and the environment, this has longer-term investment implications.
The Market Implications of Global Disarray
For our third quarter webinar, we’re pleased to offer a discussion on ‘The Market Implications of Global Disarray’ with Vice Chairman Byron Wien and recently hired Investment Strategist Joe Zidle.
No Recession in Sight
This business expansion has gone on for nine years and most investors think we have to be near the end. In baseball parlance you hear talk that we are in the seventh or eighth inning; nobody seems to believe we are in the second or third. Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan has said at a conference we’re in the sixth, which got a lot of attention.
The Start of a Secular Bear Market in Bonds
The Great Bond Bull Market is Over June 2016 will most likely be remembered as the end of the great bond bull market. 34 years earlier in 1982, when then Fed Chair Paul Volcker turned the full force of the Federal Reserve to fighting inflation, both the 10 year Treasury yield and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at approximately 15%.
Innovation and Limits on Personal Freedom in China
Blackstone is pleased to offer the following Market Commentary by Byron Wien which shares his thinking on global economic developments, market insights and other factors that may influence investment opportunities and strategies.