US Elections and EM
Noise levels are likely to remain elevated in the run-up to – and possibly in the immediate aftermath of the upcoming US presidential election, but the post-election outlook should prove positive for EM assets by ushering in a period of more positive risk-sentiment, a long period of low US rates and a lower Dollar.
The Case for EM Investment Grade USD Bonds
Overall, EM IG bonds represent a great opportunity for investors seeking to monetise the EM risk premium with moderate volatility in a world, where higher yielding IG-rated securities are increasingly difficult to come by.
The EM Fixed Income Universe
Welcome to the 9th annual review of the Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income asset class. Using new data from the Bank of International Settlements and other sources, we establish that the EM bond market has expanded by 12% in Dollar terms in the past twelve months to a size of USD 29.6trn, or 25% of the global fixed income universe as of the end of 2019.
Is 9 Times More Yield Enough for You?
Does 9 times higher yield in EM than in US bonds make for an attractive investment proposition? We lay out the arguments.
The China Witch Hunt
The common characterization of US-China relations as a new Cold War is wrong. Instead, the most recent spike in tensions between the two countries – the second time this has happened since US President Donald Trump took office in 2016 – is primarily motivated by political considerations ahead of the November US presidential election.
Status Update: Coronavirus and EM Fixed Income in 2020 and Beyond
As of 27 April 2020, eighteen times more people have died from coronavirus per million of the population in developed countries (DMs) than in Emerging Markets (EM). This is partly due to measurement problems, but there may also be genuine structural reasons for expecting slower spread, less overall incidence, and lower mortality rates in EM countries than in DMs.
The Triple Shock and EM Equities: First-In First-Out?
Global stock markets have been struck by a triple shock; global pandemic, energy price war and market rout from full valuation levels in developed markets. Each of these types of shocks has been seen, and recovered from, previously.
It is here again – the VIX spike!
The VIX index has spiked. Over more than twenty years, VIX spikes have been excellent guides to when to put money to work in EM fixed income and equities. Investors have, on average, generated 262bps of excess return in EM fixed income and 234bps of excess return in EM equities by putting money to work during VIX spikes relative to a ‘timing agnostic’ investment strategy.
The Power of Carry
Quantitative Easing (QE) policies in developed countries triggered a flight from yield in EM as investors pursued capital gains in developed markets instead. As the capital gains in developed markets fade and with yield nowhere to be found, a search for yield in EM has finally begun.
The 2020-2024 EM Fixed Income Outlook
Following another year of strong returns, Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years. The outperformance is likely to continue in 2020, because EM fixed income remains attractively priced both in absolute terms and relative to bonds in developed markets as well as under-owned and well-supported by an improving fundamental backdrop.
The Missing Point in the Global Growth Debate
Global growth is decelerating. Policy-makers in developed economies are gearing up for yet more fiscal spending. While fiscal spending may support growth for a short time, and for longer if very carefully applied, it will not change the growth outlook fundamentally.
The Power of Top Down: 7 Implications for Em Equity Investors
Welcome to Emerging Markets! A huge array of economies all at various stages of development and maturity with different capital market structures. Add in as many different currencies, political frameworks and policy stances and the result is a complex, diverse, evolving and inefficient market universe.
The EM Fixed Income Universe Version 8.0
Welcome to the 8th annual review of the Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income asset class. Using new data from Bank of International Settlements and other sources, we establish that the EM bond market had grown to a size of USD 26.5trn, or 23% of global fixed income at the end of 2018.
The Path to Averting a Default in Argentina
Investors are suddenly much more concerned about the political transition in Argentina. The country’s stock of debt is large but not unmanageable, with a path to avoid default and to boost growth in sight.
The Case for EM Local Currency Debt
The establishment of local bond markets has been the single most important structural change in Emerging Markets (EM) in the past quarter of a century. Many investors still fear local markets due to FX volatility, but EM local bonds have performed better overall than US Treasuries and US stocks.