dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 3/5 Days This Week

The S&P 500 fell three out of five days this week and closed Friday up 1.49% from Thursday. The index is 1.4% and is up 11.1% YTD, just slightly less than 12.7% last Friday.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Tumbles Due to High Inflation

The May preliminary came in at 82.8, down 5.5 from the April Final. Investing.com had forecast 90.4. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 3.9 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 2.8 percent below the geometric mean.

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 159.2, up 0.8 from the previous week's revised figure and an all-time high. The WLIg is at 24.4, down fractionally from last week and the WLI YoY is at 34.42%, also down from last week.

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The Big Four - Industrial Production: Up 0.7% in April

Today's report on Industrial Production for April shows a 0.67% increase month-over-month, which was below the Investing.com consensus of 1.0%. The year-over-year change is 16.5%, up from last month's YoY increase.

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Retail Sales Unchanged in April, but Up 51% YoY

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for April was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.02% month-over-month to two decimals and below the Investing.com forecast of 1.0%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -0.79% MoM.

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Underlying Inflation Gauge: April Update

The latest full set UIG for April is 2.68% while the prices-only measure is 2.87%. Current Headline CPI is now 4.16% and Core CPI is 2.96%.

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April Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.7% MoM

This morning's release of the April Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand was at 0.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 1.0% increase last month. It is at 6.2% year-over-year, up from 4.2% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.7% MoM, unchanged from the previous month and is up 4.1% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.3% headline and 0.4% core.

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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 25K from Last Week

This morning's seasonally adjusted 473K new claims, down 25K from the previous week's upwardly revised figure, was better than the Investing.com forecast of 490K.

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Baby Boomer Employment - April 2021

The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Cryptocurrencies Through 5/12

Here's the latest on the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and XRP.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Long-Term Look at the CPI

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this morning puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 4.16%. It is abovethe 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 1.73%.

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Inflation: The Components

Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components.

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Components of the CPI: April 2021

Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

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Middle-Class Wages in April 2021

We've updated this series to include the April release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $43,774, down 5.7% from 45-plus years ago.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Consumer Price Index: April Headline at 4.16%, Largest Increase Since 9/2008

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 4.16%, up from 2.62% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.96%, up from 1.65% the previous month and above the Fed's 2% PCE target.