dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

S&P 500 Snapshot: Some Losses Regained

The S&P saw gains four out of five days this week and regained some of its losses from September. The index is up 19.04% YTD and is just 1.45% below its record close.

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Treasury Snapshot: 10-Year Note at 1.59%

The yield on the 10-year note ended October 15, 2021, at 1.59%, the 2-year note ended at 0.41%, and the 30-year at 2.05%.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Margin Debt and the Market: Down 0.92% in September

FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through September. The latest debt level is down 0.92% month-over-month.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

This morning's late release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 154.7, up 1.2 from the previous week's revised figure. The WLIg is at 3.3, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at 10.06%, also up from last week.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment: October Preliminary Continues Dim Pace

The October Preliminary came in at 71.4, down 1.4 (1.9%) from the September Final. Investing.com had forecast 73.1. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 17 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 16.1 percent below the geometric mean.

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Retail Sales Up 0.7% in September, 13.9% YoY

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for September was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.74% month-over-month to two decimals and was above the Investing.com forecast of -0.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.78% MoM.

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Empire State Mfg Survey: Solid Growth in October

This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 19.8 was a decrease of 14.5 from the previous month's 34.3 . The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 27.

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Middle-Class Hourly Wages Near Record High

We've updated this series to include the September release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $44,717, down 6.3% from 45-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are near their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.

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Long-Term Look at the CPI

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this week puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 5.39%. It is above the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 1.80%.

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Market Cap to GDP: September Buffett Valuation Indicator

With the Q2 GDP Third Estimate and the September close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 213.2%, up from 204.7% the previous quarter.

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Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force

Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from the latest Employment Report for September. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.

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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 36K, Beats Forecast

This morning's seasonally adjusted 293K new claims, down 36K from the previous week's revised figure, was below the Investing.com forecast of 319K.

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September Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 6.8% YoY

This morning's release of the September Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was at 0.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 0.6% increase last month. It is at 8.6% year-over-year, up from 8.3% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.2% MoM, down from the 0.5% previous month and is up 6.8% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.6% headline and 0.5% core. The September PPI for Final Demand was at 0.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 0.7% increase last month. 

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Cryptocurrencies Through 10/13

Here's the latest on the largest cryptocurrencies by market share.

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Underlying Inflation Gauge: September Update

The latest full set UIG for September is 4.03% while the prices-only measure is 4.01%. Current Headline CPI is now 5.39% and Core CPI is 4.03%.