dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

U.S. Workforce: May 2020 Update

We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include Thursday's Employment Report for June. The unemployment fell to 11.1%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 4.8M.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Baby Boomer Employment Across Time

The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 2.44% YTD

The S&P dropped at the end of last week and then started Monday high. The index hovered around a 65 point range the rest of the week. The index is up 0.70% from last Thursday and is down 2.44% YTD.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force

Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from Thursday's Employment Report. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $15,442 for an annualized real return of 8.72%.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Weekly Unemployment Claims: 1.31M, Down 99K from Last Week

This morning's seasonally adjusted 1.314M new claims, down 99K from the previous week's revised figure, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 1.375M.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator

With the Q1 GDP Third Estimate, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 123.4%, down from 154.7% the previous quarter.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior

"Travel on all roads and streets changed by -25.5% (-72.9 billion vehicle miles) for May 2020 as compared with May 2019. Travel for the month is estimated to be 213.2 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was down 2.39% month-over-month and down 6.5% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 2.45% month-over-month and down 6.9% year-over-year.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective

The last couple of years have been remarkable ones for yields. As of June 30, the 10-year note is 12 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.54%, reached on March 9.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Multiple Jobholders: Trends as of June 2020

At present, multiple jobholders account for just 4.3 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the current relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

June 2020: Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns.

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Is the Market Still Overvalued?

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

  • The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
  • The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
  • The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
  • The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline
dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Goods Producing Versus Services Providing Employment: June 2020

The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 4.8M nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 4.296M service-providing jobs and a gain of 504K goods-producing jobs.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Job Openings & Labor Turnover: May 2020 Update

The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through May, is now available.