Note: This commentary has been updated to incorporate the May data for Industrial Production.


Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:

The Latest Indicator Data

Today's report on Industrial Production for May shows a 0.85% increase month-over-month, which was above the Investing.com consensus of 0.6%. The year-over-year change is 16.3%, down from last month's YoY increase.