Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields as of the March 3, 2020 close. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range has been astonishing. The stagflation that set in after the 1973 Oil Embargo was finally ended after Paul Volcker raised the FFR to 20.06%.
The last couple of years have been remarkable ones for yields. As of July 31, the 10-year note is just 1 basis point above its historic closing low of 0.54%, reached on March 9.
Now let's overlay the S&P 500 to see the historical pattern of equities versus treasuries. This is a nominal chart, which significantly distorted the real value of both yields and equity prices.