Consumer Price Index: June Core at 1.19%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 0.65%, up from 0.12% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.19%, down from 1.22% the previous month and below the Fed's 2% PCE target.
Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after falling 0.1 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The gasoline index rose sharply in June after recent declines and accounted for over half of the monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The energy index increased 5.1 percent in June as the gasoline index rose 12.3 percent. The food index also rose in June, increasing 0.6 percent as the index for food at home continued to rise.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June, its first monthly increase since February. The index for motor vehicle insurance increased sharply in June after recent declines. The indexes for apparel, shelter, and medical care also increased in June, while the indexes for used cars and trucks, recreation, and communication all declined.
The all items index increased 0.6 percent for the 12 months ending June; this compares to a 0.1-percent increase for the 12 months ending May. The index for all items less food and energy increased 1.2 percent over the last 12 months. The food index increased 4.5 percent over the last 12 months, with the index for food at home rising 5.6 percent. Despite increasing in June, the energy index fell 12.6 percent over the last 12 months. [More…]
Investing.com was looking for a 0.5% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.1% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 0.6% for Headline and 1.1% for Core.
The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
The next chart shows both series since 1957, the year the government first began tracking Core Inflation.
In the wake of the Great Recession, two percent has been the Fed's target for core inflation. However, at their December 2012 FOMC meeting, the inflation ceiling was raised to 2.5% while their accommodative measures (low Fed Funds Rate and quantitative easing) were in place. They have since reverted to the two percent target in their various FOMC documents.
Federal Reserve policy, which in recent history has focused on core inflation measured by the core PCE Price Index, will see that the more familiar core CPI is now at the PCE target range of 2 percent.