COVID-19, The Markets, and The Economy
The COVID-19 pandemic threw us into a bear market and the longest bull market in history was over. Here's a roundup of some informative charts, including the S&P 500, changes in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P since 2000, and a few more that are relevant.
Let's start with margin debt, which began a decline in Q3 of 2017. The last S&P 500 all-time high was on February 19 at 3386.15. As of the May 15th close, the index is down 15.4% off that high. In the previous two recessions, the S&P peak came at least three months after the margin debt peak.
Here's the same chart inverted to show the relationship between the two as a divergence.
Let's move on to the S&P 500 itself - here's a couple of charts from our S&P Snapshot. The first is a five-day look at the volatility.
To put the market downturn into perspective, let's look at the index since about 2011. It's clear how much of a bull market this has been and how high the index has gone.
Now let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21.
This next chart we typically update monthly, but have included data through the May 15 close. This takes a look at the inflation-adjusted changes since the 2000 peaks for the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ.
Here is a chart on world markets since the October 9, 2007 market downturn through today's close.
Lastly, here's is ECRI's smoothed year-over-year percent change since 2000 of their weekly leading index. Index data as of May 8.