First Look at April: ADP Says 20M Nonfarm Private Jobs Lost
The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).
Today we have the ADP April estimate of 20.2M nonfarm private employment jobs lost, a decrease over the ADP revised March figure of -149K.
The -20.2M estimate came in below the Investing.com consensus of -20M for the ADP number.
The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for -21.05M private nonfarm jobs lost and the unemployment rate to rise to 16%. Their forecast for the April full nonfarm new jobs is (the PAYEMS number) -21.85M.
Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:
“Job losses of this scale are unprecedented. The total number of job losses for the month of April alone was more than double the total jobs lost during the Great Recession,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Additionally, it is important to note that the report is based on the total number of payroll records for employees who were active on a company’s payroll through the 12th of the month. This is the same time period the Bureau of Labor and Statistics uses for their survey.”
Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.
The next update to this report will be on June 3.
Here's our list of monthly employment updates: