2021 has certainly started off interesting. From Reddit readers chasing the most heavily shorted stocks, to the new Administration discussing more stimulus, investors have had plenty to deal with. A market review seems appropriate as the bulls seem to remain bulletproof even as the mania grows.
Last Charge Of The Light Brigade
One thing this market has become known for is its resilience. Regardless of the event, “hope” combined with plenty of Central Bank interventions has kept markets pushing higher. But, all good things do come to an end, the only question is the timing and the event. Importantly, what history tells us is that it is the Federal Reserve that has always led the “last charge of the light brigade.”
For those unfamiliar with the story, the “Charge of the Light Brigade” was a charge of British light cavalry led by Lord Cardigan against Russian forces during the Battle of Balaclava in 1854, during the Crimean War. Lord Raglan, the overall commander of the British forces, had intended to send the Light Brigade to prevent the Russians from removing captured guns from overrun Turkish positions. Such was a task that was well-suited to light cavalry.
However, due to miscommunication in the chain of command, the Light Brigade was instead sent on a frontal assault against a different artillery battery, one well-prepared with excellent fields of defensive fire.
Although the Light Brigade reached the battery under withering direct fire and scattered some of the gunners, the badly mauled brigade was forced to retreat immediately. Thus, the assault ended with very high British casualties and no decisive gains. War correspondent William Russell, who witnessed the battle, declared:
“Our Light Brigade was annihilated by their own rashness, and by the brutality of a ferocious enemy.”
Such is the current market environment. Investors, much like the British Calvary, face rather daunting odds of long-term success. With a market that is overly bullish, overly complacent, and excessively valued, outcomes those that charged headlong into the battle have often suffered serious injuries. As the chart below shows, “bears” have gone into complete hibernation.