I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the market’s been a bit bumpy lately, so I decided to send out my NewsLetter early to give you something to read other than financial pornography designed to scare the begeebies out of you.

FROM MY FRIEND ALEX

NICE TO SEE

Forbes catching up with the news. The headline of the article was “The Stunning Problem with the 4% Retirement Income Rule in One Chart.” The point of the article was that relying on average long-term returns (such as four percent) can be dangerous given that the timing of returns (known as “sequence of withdrawal”) can drastically change the long-term outcome. Well, that’s not a surprise; in fact, it was the whole point of my friend Bill Bengan’s classic article “Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data,” published in October 1994! Not bad. It only took 26 years for Forbes to discover this.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertpagliarini/2020/01/22/the-stunning-problem-with-the-4-retirementincome-rule-in-one-chart/#459f578a21cb

OUCH
INVESTORS FLEE

“Hedge Fund Outflows Neared $100 Billion in 2019, Most Since 2016,” Melissa Karsh Bookmark, January 23, 2020, 2:42 AM; January 23, 2020, 4:54 PM (Bloomberg) — Hedge funds suffered almost $98 billion in net outflows in 2019, the most in three years, as managers trailed the stock market rally.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/594976df29687fe3e672bc85/t/5e39d2c74e25c17488f19a67/15808 47815820/Boomber+hedge+fund+outflows.pdf