Crisis Delayed
Circling the Drain
Tax and Spend
Get Ready
Writing, SIC Planning, and More Writing

Welcome to the 2020s. Some weren’t sure we would make it this far, but we did. Now we face a new decade and new challenges. How we handle them will determine what kind of conversation we have in 2030.

This concern for the future is one of the things that separates humans from animals. Dogs don’t worry about tomorrow, much less next year. They live completely in the present, giving it their all (an ability I sometimes envy).

Being human, I have to think about the future. And being a writer, people want to know what I think. So today and next week I’ll outline what I expect for both the year 2020 and the decade of the 2020s. My forthcoming book will have an even more detailed vision, so consider this an appetizer.

Crisis Delayed

In some ways, today’s Decade of Living Dangerously letter is a continuation of my 2019 forecast, The Year of Living Dangerously. I think the 2020s in general will be rough. But to be clear, my view of the decade is not my view of the coming year.

In summary, I expect 2020 will look like a slower version of 2018 and 2019. My base case is for no recession this year, with all the usual caveats, But it’s important to know what we should pay attention to. Some key events began to unfold last year that I think will continue in 2020. Some are hard to grasp, as I said in that letter a year ago.

In a nutshell, I expect to spend this year Living Dangerously. Yes, I’m thinking of the 1982 film starring a very youthful Mel Gibson and Sigourney Weaver, based on an earlier Christopher Koch novel. It has an Asian setting and features corrupt politics, neophyte journalists, international intrigue plus a gender-bending Chinese dwarf. If you aren’t sure how all those fit together, then welcome to 2019. We are all stuck in this craziness and can only make the best of it.