The past month has been generally cheerful for followers of the American economy. Recent data has included a series of upside surprises. While we remain skeptical about “phase one” of trade negotiations between China and the U.S., the temporary truce is welcome. And the timeline for Brexit was extended, preventing a no-deal departure that could upset global markets.

We are encouraged at how resilient the economy has been in the transition to a regime of trade restrictions. Business investment remains a weak point, but consumers and services continue to advance. The U.S. job market remains strong. If current trends hold, we may look back on 2019 as the year the economy executed an elusive soft landing.

Key Economic Indicators

US Economic Outlook - October 2019 Chart