It has been challenging to keep up with the pace of breaking news in the past month. Political developments, trade provocations and an oil market disruption dominated the front page. In the background, though, the economy continues to function. Employment and wage gains are strong, but uncertainty about global growth prospects is clouding the outlook for business investment.

On balance, we expect the economy to transition into a period of moderate expansion amid elevated uncertainty. Economic growth will return to its long-run potential rate as the stimulative effects of tax reform and deregulation fade. Healthy consumer activity will be offset by slow business and export growth, and trade headlines will offer little reason for cheer. But slow, steady growth is still growth.

Key Economic Indicators

US Economic Outlook - October 2019 Chart