Throwing Cold Water on the Excitement Around Foreign Economic Data
Yesterday’s stocks reacted to a raft of overnight foreign economic data that it perceived positively. In this note, I’ll run down the data and my doubts about that reaction.
The hits began with China’s Markit manufacturing PMI jumping to 50.5. While the media seems to focus on the size of the jump, and the fact that it came in .6 points better than estimates, the reality is that at 50.5, manufacturing is barely expanding.
Next, we got the China non-manufacturing and composite PMIs, which also showed increases. The non-manufacturing component was reported .4 points above estimates.
Then the China Caixin manufacturing came out Sunday at 7:45pm (mountain time), and again, we got a bounce and beat estimates by .8 points.