Trade War is Boosting US Economic Activity … in the Short-Term
Overnight, new data released in China suggests businesses are having a tough time lately. Cheung Kong University produces an alternate PMI Business Conditions Index in association with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. The latest data point plunged more than 10 points from its end of July reading and is currently sitting at 41.88, deep into contraction territory.
For the US, the story is a bit different. The Atlanta Federal Reserve maintains a now-casting series extrapolating incoming economic data to quarterly GDP now-casts, calculated weekly. In the last week, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow increased by about 11bps to 4.19%. This would make for the second quarter in a row of 4% growth if it materializes.