On a personal level, summer is often a season that affords an additional measure of leisure. Some take vacations, while those still at their posts often leave on time to enjoy the long evenings.

As we move through the summer of 2018, the U.S. economy is showing no signs of slacking off. A strong second quarter was highlighted by continued job growth, manageable inflation and robust consumer spending.



This idyll may not last, however. The boost provided by tax reform will likely fade as the year proceeds, and rising inflation has attracted the Federal Reserve’s attention. The uncertainty presented by spreading trade skirmishes may impair growth while boosting prices.

We remain constructive on the outlook for this year, but foresee a return to more modest progress in 2019.

Key Economic Indicators