Treasuries Signaling Full-On Inflationary Boom in the US
Ten-year US treasury rates broke out this week on the back of news that looks unequivocally like an inflationary boom. Earlier in the week the Atlanta wage tracker ticked back up to 3.3% year over year. Wages moving higher, check. Oil prices broke above $71/barrel. Commodity prices higher, check.
Today, as I highlight below, the Philly Fed index hit the highest rate in a year, with the inflation component hitting new cycle highs.
After being mostly range-bound since 2011, US 10-Year Treasury yields broke above 3% this week. Resistance doesn’t really come into play until about 3.5%-3.75%.
Looking at a decomposition of US Treasuries reveals the boom part of the story. Derived growth expectations embedded in bonds (TIPS yield – term premium) have broken to new decade highs.