Newsletter - February 2018
DEJA VUE ALL OVER AGAIN?
From a Barron’s article:
“That we are having a major speculative splurge as this is written is obvious to anyone not captured by vacuous optimism.”
“There is here a basic and recurrent process. It comes with rising prices, whether of stocks, real estate, works of art, or anything else. This increase attracts attention and buyers, which produces the further effect of even higher prices. Expectations are thus justified by the very action that sends prices up. The process continues; optimism with the market effect is the order of the day. Prices go up even more.”
This was written by economist John Kenneth Galbraith in 1997.
This is going to be interesting. I’m writing this in mid-December, but the NewsLetter will not be going out until around March, so we’ll know more by then how this all shakes out. In the interim… Have you heard of Tulip Mania? Well, in the early 1600s the price of tulip bulbs reached extraordinarily high levels. According to Wikipedia, at its peak in February 1637, some bulbs sold for more than ten times the annual income of a skilled craftworker. Unfortunately, by May of that year prices had collapsed to close to zero. Until now, Tulip Mania has been the poster child of financial manias. Well, Convoy Investments has created a chart to include the recent Bitcoin price movement just in case we may have a new financial mania king. Of course, even if it is a mania, there may be money to be made if you’re quick enough to hop off the merry-go-round before the bubble pops. Here’s what Crypto pioneer Mike Novogratz said on said Monday on CNBC’s “Fast Money” (12/11/17).
“This is going to be the biggest bubble of our lifetimes.” Which, of course, does not stop him from investing hundreds of millions in the space. While conceding that cryptos are the biggest bubble ever, he also said, “Bitcoin could be at $40,000 at the end of 2018. It easily could.” Then, of course it may not.
Stay tuned (unless something has already happened).
[As I write this, it’s hovering around $10,000 having bounced back from a low of about $6,000.]