For the last five years, crude oil has been behaving a little differently than it has in the past. At least that’s the takeaway from the chart below, based on the Moore Research Center’s analysis of oil’s seasonal trading patterns. Note that the index on the left measures the greatest historical tendency for the asset to make a seasonal high (100) or low (0) at a given time.
First, take a look at the dark and light blue lines, which represent the average price action for the 15-year period and 30-year period. In either case, oil looks remarkably the same—lows were most likely to have occurred in mid- to late winter, followed by a rally leading into the busy summer travel season. March historically yielded the highest monthly returns, October and November the lowest.
But then something changed. The five-year period, represented by the orange line, shows oil hitting lows not in the winter but in late fall. Highs were more likely in May, not September.
So why’s this happening?
Behold exhibit A, U.S. crude oil production since 1983:
American Fracking Responsible for Record Output
Frankly, a lot has changed in the five-year period compared to the longer-term periods. We can put hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, at the top of the list, as it’s responsible for the huge ramp-up in production you see in the chart above.