Weighing the Week Ahead: Have Stock Prices Lost Touch with Reality?
It is a big week for economic data and the first address to Congress from the new President. Most of the punditry is engaged in a collective head-shake about overbought conditions. Even if the data flow remains strong, pundits will be asking:
Have stock prices lost touch with reality?
Last week the economic news was mostly positive, and stocks responded.
In my last WTWA I predicted a discussion about Trump policies and the business cycle. This was partially correct, but the prevailing theme – by a widespread margin – emphasized the likely delays in key economic policies. That will be a transition point for the week ahead.
The Story in One Chart
I always start my personal review of the week by looking at this great chart from Doug Short via Jill Mislinski. She notes yet another record close based on the week’s gain of 0.7%.
Doug has a special knack for pulling together all the relevant information. His charts save more than a thousand words! Read his entire post for several more charts providing long-term perspective.
Each week I break down events into good and bad. Often there is an “ugly” and on rare occasion something very positive. My working definition of “good” has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too!
This week’s news was mostly positive.
- Chemical activity increases. Calculated Risk tracks the improvement in this leading indicator.
- Business executive optimism is reflected in Deloitte’s annual survey.
- Michigan sentiment remained strong at 96.3
- Existing home sales beat expectations, but are just 0.7% above a year ago. Inventory continues to decline.
- Initial jobless claims rose slightly on the week, but dropped to the lowest level since 1973 on the widely-followed four-week moving average. (Calculated Risk).
- Hotel occupancy softened over the last few weeks (Calculated Risk).
- New home sales missed expectations. The prior three months were all revised lower. While sales were up 5.5% year-over-year, the comparison months were among the weakest. Calculated Risk notes that these were the first months after mortgage rates moved higher and provides analysis and this key chart.
- European tourism interest in America is down 12% after the travel ban. (Forbes).
Russia may have interfered with the Brexit vote say UK officials. Jake Kanter and Adam Bienkov have the story at Business Insider.
The Silver Bullet
I occasionally give the Silver Bullet award to someone who takes up an unpopular or thankless cause, doing the real work to demonstrate the facts. This week’s award goes to EconompicData, for an important and careful analysis of the effect of rising interest rates on bond investors.
The problem is that the debate over the Fed and interest rates became political. To maintain consistency, many argue that higher rates will be good for bond investors. Here is Jake’s summary of the problem:
I’ve read too many posts / articles that outline why a rise in rates is good for long-term bond investors (as that would allow reinvestment at higher rates). While this can be true depending on the duration of bonds owned and/or for nominal returns over an extended period of time, it is certainly not true over shorter periods of time and absolutely not true for an investor in most real return scenarios… even over very long periods of time.