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Commentaries
Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms
US Inflation Figures
Andrew Milliner, Global Bonds Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson Investors, has put together the below comments in reaction to current U.S. inflation figures and what it means for the economy and markets moving forward. Please let me know if you have any questions or wish to further discuss with Andrew.
Taking Flight
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the U.S. economy.
Why Munis Should Hold Their Shine Amid Higher Rates
Municipal bonds have held up well this year, despite rising interest rates and inflation. Munis’ long-term outlook is strong too. What accounts for their outperformance in today’s environment?
Note to Elon: Crypto Miners Are Part of the Solution to Curbing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
And just like that, Elon Musk has turned on Bitcoin.
US Birth & Fertility Rates Hit New Record Lows: Why?
The US Centers For Disease Control and Prevention reported last week that the US birth rate plunged for its sixth consecutive year in 2020. The US fertility rate also hit a new record low. Demographers are puzzled at this potentially troubling trend...
SPACs: What Are They, and Are They a Risk to the Market?
Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs)—also known as blank-check companies—have gained immense popularity among investors since the beginning of 2020, despite being around for decades.
One Hot Economy, Two Burning Questions on Value and Income
The switch on the U.S. economy is readying to come fully “on,” more than a year after the global pandemic forced abrupt closures around the world and across industries.
2 Overvalued Tech Stocks Falling Faster Than You Think
The NASDAQ is falling as tech stocks begin to show cracks in their armor. Of course, according to Mr. Valuation the reason is simple – most tech stocks are overvalued.
Will COVID-19 Accelerate Euro-Area Integration?
Widespread lockdowns have resulted in record output declines and soaring debt across the euro area. But the political response to the COVID-19 crisis may be positive for the European integration project—and for euro-area bond markets.
Examining the Environment for Microcap Stocks
The smallest companies in the market may be overlooked by many investors, but can offer big potential. Here, we posed some questions about micro-capitalization (microcap) stocks to Franklin Mutual Series Portfolio Manager Oliver Wong, who explains how they have fared recently and where he’s finding opportunities.
Back to Business: Spending Surge Signals Demand
Global indicators continue to signal a sharp business recovery from last year’s COVID-19 pandemic lows. While inflation expectations are increasing as a result, business improvements offer multi-asset investors good reasons to remain tilted to equities for the next stage of the recovery.
Inflation: It’s Just the Start
To say that we were surprised by some of the discussion at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting would be an understatement. The conversation Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger leaned into on inflation was possibly the most interesting. Warren and Charlie gave large credit to Larry Summers for his willingness to stand alone on the effects of today’s fiscal and monetary policy on prices. We thought this was an ideal time review Buffett and Munger’s discussion and see what conclusions we could draw.
A Jumpy Market Waiting for The Fed to Move
Tracy Nolte talks AAM’s Outlook for Inflation, Fixed Income Market’s Outlook for Inflation, and Managing the Current Rate Environment.
The Fall of the Titans!
The performance of a market-cap-weighted index is driven by a handful of stocks with the largest capitalizations, but these stocks do not remain at the top for long. A smart beta multi-factor strategy is a good solution for investors concerned about the concentration risk of a passive market-cap tracker.
Biden and Powell Versus Summers and Dudley
One of the best economic debates that's happening right now isn't between Republicans and Democrats or liberals versus conservatives, it's between policymakers who want to go full steam ahead with as much fiscal and monetary "stimulus" as possible and center-left economists who worry about the economic effects of over-stimulating the economy.
Fed's Patience Tested, Slow Labor Markets, India's COVID Crisis
Labor markets are changing course. When will the Fed do the same? India's second wave will disrupt activity elsewhere.
Three Fixed Income Predictions for the Roaring 2020’s
Today, we find ourselves with particularly high confidence in the likelihood of three scenarios to which we believe all investors should be paying close attention. First, we anticipate the current market euphoria will likely last through the summer.
Mind the (rate expectation) gap
Markets are pricing in a liftoff from near-zero policy rates as early as next year, even though the Fed through its new framework has committed to stay behind the curve on inflation. We caution against extrapolating too much from strong near-term activity data amid a powerful restart. We see a high bar for the Fed to change its policy stance and believe this may be underappreciated by markets.
The Current State of Retirement Income
Retirement planning has evolved from a singular focus on savings to ensuring that account values provide income for life. Multiple generations of DC plan participants are concerned that they’ll outlive their retirement savings, and they’re turning to plan sponsors for solutions.
Breaking Down the Employment Report and the Market’s Reaction
Today the US employment report for April was released and it took the markets by surprise. Estimates were for net job gains of 1 million. Instead, the US economy added 218K private sector jobs. This compares to 708K private sector jobs in March.
No Country Has Ever Taxed Itself into Prosperity
One of my all-time favorite quotes comes from Winston Churchill, who was just as witty as he was a great leader: “We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.”
This Kind of Duality
I've developed this kind of duality. It's hard to think of the next 20 years or indeed the last 20 years without being very optimistic about the future of humanity.
Strong Earnings and Stimulus Push Stocks Higher
The markets continue their upward trend, supported by accommodative fiscal policy from the Federal Reserve, strong gross domestic product (GDP) numbers and solid earnings reports.
Boom Boom Pow: Have Stocks Already Priced in Economic Boom?
Economic and earnings data are in boom territory, with more momentum likely near-term.
Don’t Underestimate the U.S. Consumer
Markets have massively recovered from panic-driven lows last spring, and investors are now rightly contemplating if we have come too far too fast.
Value Stocks—Still Plenty of Fuel in the Tank
After a strong rally for value stocks in recent months, some investors are wondering if the rebound will continue.
Climate Change Sectors Heat Up
From digital factories to plant-based clothing, climate change investing is much more than just investing in renewable energy, according to the Templeton Global Equity Group.
Reasons We Remain Bullish on Gold
While gold is valued for a variety of reasons, the uncertainty and economic fallout tied to the COVID-19 pandemic saw investment drive the price of the yellow metal to record highs in 2020.
When Will Powell’s Fed Have To Blink On Policy?
It was ever so tempting to devote today’s letter to a discussion of President Biden’s latest massive government spending, which he proposed Wednesday night in his “First Hundred Days” speech before Congress.
Rising Inflation: What It Means for TIPS and Other Investments
Inflation is likely to rise in 2021—but will the rise be sustained? That seems to be the million-dollar question lately.
European Union Seeks to Open Its Borders to Vaccinated Travelers this Summer
If you were hoping to visit the Eiffel Tower or Colosseum this summer, you may be in luck.
Scotland’s Election Becomes a Referendum on a Referendum—With Global Resonance
On 6 May, Scotland will hold parliamentary elections that could ramp up the push for a Scottish independence referendum. We believe this event and the prospect of another independence referendum could introduce market volatility.
Q2 Equity Outlook: Equities Continue on Recovery Rally
Just over a year since the COVID-19 virus began spreading around the globe and significant portions of our economy shut down, today the U.S. is solidly on the road to recovery.
The American Jobs Plan and its Impact on the Power Sector
Loomis Sayles credit research analysts look at President Biden's American Jobs Plan and discuss the components that might affect the power sector.
China Property Sector Remains Robust Despite Policy Headwind
Momentum in China’s property market remains strong so far in 2021, driven by healthy demand for housing.
Electrify Your Portfolio With These 5 EV Stocks
Regarding automobile stocks, virtually every automotive manufacturer is entering the electric vehicle and autonomous driving market in some form or another.
What Could US Corporate Tax Hikes Mean for Share Buybacks?
As the US economy continues to reopen, economic growth is accelerating in line with our above-consensus forecasts.
The Time Is Now: Climate Transition Investing for US Investors
Climate research informs us that in 2017 anthropogenic global warming reached1.0° C above pre-industrial levels (IPCC, 2018).
A Year Of Investing In Quality Cyclicals
April 3rd marked the 1-year anniversary of the first investments deployed by GMO’s Quality Cyclicals Strategy,1 within a fortnight of the trough that ended 2020’s quickfire bear market.
Helping the Other 66%
Addressing within-country inequality may be the political imperative of the moment.
Counting the Chickens Twice
There’s an old bit of advice that one shouldn’t count one’s chickens before they’re hatched.
Technically Speaking: Forward Returns Continue To Fall
One of the interesting aspects of “bull markets” is the further they go, the lower forward returns fall.
The Year of Living Dangerously
How to structure your portfolio when interest rates are rising.
Liquidity: Historic Gains Lead To Marginal Drains
We look at the myriad of liquidity measures and what the draining from gains does to asset prices and fiscal and monetary responses.
Buffett: No Fish in the Barrel
The Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting was a mixture of caution, wisdom and honesty.