Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

Stall Speed Economy

In this letter I find myself recommending policies that not that long ago would have been extraordinarily distasteful to me. Yet, unless we pursue them, our economy will truly be turned upside down. I fully recognize these things have a cost. But the cost of inaction is much higher.

Weekly Market Snapshot

The major stock market indices were choppy on a day-to-day basis, as investors continued to reevaluate the rally off the lows. The economic data reports were inconsequential.

The Three Tailwinds Supporting Tech

Russ Koesterich, portfolio manager of the Global Allocation Fund, explains how history is not repeating itself with the recent sharp rise in tech stocks.

Rational Exuberance? Explaining Global Equity Market Gains

Global stock markets seem to be defying the reality of recessions this year. Despite recent volatility, we think market gains for the year are more rational than perceived, given the powerful impact of stimulus and low rates on stock valuations.

Got Gold? Bottom-Barrel Rates to Last for Years to Come

At least through 2023: That’s how long the Federal Reserve expects near-zero interest rates to last as it seeks to support an economy that’s seen more than 60 million jobless claims since mid-March. Gold has thrived in this low-rate environment, hitting an all-time high of $2,070 an ounce in early August...

Brexit Saga Meets Trade Roadblocks

The United Kingdom officially left the European Union in January of this year, but issues remain in the Brexit saga, namely trade relations. David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income, weighs in on the odds no deal will be reached by year-end—and the market implications.

Four Myths About Investing Outside U.S. Markets

With U.S. shares reaching lofty valuations and fundamentals firming up in many other countries, financial advisors would be wise to consider increasing a client’s non-U.S. holdings. So why do many advisors hesitate making this allocation?

Three Investment Ideas in Front of the Election

Sierra Mutual Funds CIO Terri Spath covers the current state of the markets, and gives three possible ways to participate in investment returns while keeping a close eye on risk.

Lessons From China

What are the lessons that can be learned from observing the Chinese economy and U.S.–China relations? Sinology explores the takeaways from five topics including China’s approach to controlling COVID-19, its economic recovery and Washington’s misguided approach towards China.

Inflation Blues: Fed Keeps Rates Near-Zero, Officially Adopts Average Inflation Targeting

Fed maintained rates at near-zero, while also updating its summary of economic projections; now expecting a shallower economic contraction, but a slower recovery thereafter.

Interest Rates and Their Impact On Stock Values

Many investors are attempting to justify higher stock “valuations” because interest rates are at historical lows. I would agree that lower interest rates could affect “market valuations” based on the simple law of supply and demand. The concept is simple, when fixed income offers lower returns it logically stimulates more demand for equities where higher returns can be found.

Monthly Municipal Market Update, August 2020

A brief monthly update on what's happening in the municipal bond market.

Brexit Negotiations: One Minute to Midnight

The Brexit negotiations are growing more adversarial with no signs of agreement on key issues. The most likely outcomes are now the hardest and most disruptive Brexit scenarios—leading to further potential weakness for the UK’s currency.

Local Investors Discover Brazilian Stocks

The COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating for Brazil, but heavy government spending and monetary policy easing have helped bring some stability to the economy.

Fed Determined to Stay Loose

The Federal Reserve was already holding short-term interest rates near zero. What today's meeting made clear was how determined the Fed is to hold them there for at least the next few years and perhaps well into the current decade.