Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

Reminiscences of an eBay Operator

My wife brought me a box of ornaments that my mother has given to us over the years. I decided to check what I could sell them for on eBay (EBAY). What a great way to look at what is going on in equity capital markets!

Implementation Matters: A Review of the Performance of Alternative Risk Premia Strategies in 2020

Wide performance dispersion underscores the importance of portfolio construction.

2021 Schwab Market Outlook: On the Path to Recovery

With COVID-19 vaccines on the horizon, the longer-term economic outlook appears brighter.

Absolute Return Letter - December 2020

Zombies are firms that are neither dead or alive. They are in so much debt that virtually all their free cash is used to service their debt, and that is very damaging to GDP growth. This month, we explain why there are more and more zombies all over the world, and why they do immense damage to the global economy.

How Much Debt Is Too Much?

The new conventional wisdom in these unconventional times is that advanced-economy governments can take advantage of today's ultra-low interest rates to borrow and spend without limit in order to support the economy. But the fact is that there is always a limit, and it may come into view sooner than many realize.

Making Sense of Sky-High Stock Prices

Many have been puzzled that the world’s stock markets haven’t collapsed in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic downturn it has wrought. But with interest rates low and likely to stay there, equities will continue to look attractive, particularly when compared to bonds.

S&P 4,200 - Dow 35,000

In December 2019, we made a year-end 2020 forecast of 3,650 for the S&P 500. With the index closing Friday at 3,638, that looks like a very good call.

2021 Muni Bond Outlook: Storm Clouds Clearing

We expect the municipal bond market to return to a sense of normalcy in 2021.

Japan's Markets Today

Equity price gains in Japan may be driven by innovation over the long term. Portfolio manager Shuntaro Takeuchi discusses the opportunity set.

Will 2021 Mark the Launch of a Durable Global Recovery?

After a difficult winter, we expect the global economy to rebound strongly next year. But structural headwinds remain. Will the post-pandemic bounce trigger a durable and broad-based global reflation?

Technically Speaking: Investors Go “All-In” Without A Net

We have recently written a couple of posts about the “exuberance” that has invaded the market since the election. Such is often seen near short- to intermediate-term peaks in markets as investors go “all-in” without a net.

The Investment I’m Most Grateful For

So far this year, shares of HIVE Blockchain Technologies have soared an incredible 715%, well past Ethereum’s gain of 273%. 2020 has been marked by healthy expansion in mining capacity, the most recent example being HIVE’s acquisition of additional access to low-cost green energy.

No Single Story to the COVID Recovery

Recovery from COVID-19 has been a mix of successes and setbacks.

What China’s 14th Five-Year Plan Means for Investors

It will continue to be important to be an active investor during this period of transition and to carefully monitor the impact of policy on credit sectors.

The Financial Fire Trucks of 2021

A Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my US friends. This year was different for many of us—sometimes by choice, sometimes not. But there’s one bit of good news I think we can all share: The holiday season means 2020 is almost over. Soon, we’ll be able to turn the page.