Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

U.S. and China Sign a Deal, Inequality Eludes Measurement, Canada Leads with Fiscal Policy

Phase One: A limited deal is better than none.

Inequality: We can’t manage what we can’t measure.

Canada: Taking the lead with fiscal policy.

China: Buying Time Is Not Cheap

In prioritizing stability over all other objectives, China is borrowing from future growth while reducing policy ammunition to counter future shocks.

New Beginnings With the Year of the Rat

Because it’s the first of the 12 zodiacs, the Year of the Rat is seen as a time of beginnings and renewals. That brings us hope, especially paired with the recent positive development in the U.S.-China trade war.

Nose Blind to Inflation

The Federal Reserve doesn’t see the inflation others notice. Their data says inflation isn’t a problem, so they ignore indications otherwise. We see this in their policy decisions. And it’s not just the Fed; other central banks, Wall Street analysts, economists, and politicians have the same affliction.

Weekly Market Snapshot

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.

Interest Rates and Stock Values Truth Be Told

The idea that interest rates directly affect stock prices is a commonly held belief among many investors. There are some that even go as far as to say that the only reason the stock market is up is because interest rates have been artificially kept low by the Fed.

Rating Events: One Theme to Follow in Global Credit Markets in 2020

Alongside pockets of weakness in credit markets come pockets of opportunity for active managers who focus on rigorous bottom-up research and careful credit selection.

Five Multi-Asset Strategies for 2020’s Challenges

The last decade produced great performance across most asset classes. But in the 2020s, we expect investment market returns will be lower and risk harder to manage. Looking forward, a disciplined multi-asset approach will be especially valuable to identify opportunities and help mitigate setbacks.

The Need for Private Credit

Private credit relies less on broad market trends and more on the strength of each specific investment. For individuals facing retirement, institutions looking to satisfy long-term pension liabilities or even private investors looking for alternative investments, it offers high current income, low correlations with public markets and lower default risks than yield spreads would imply.

Headwinds Are Blowing, But the Ship Sails Onward Total Return Market Outlook

2019 proved to be a very strong year for almost all financial assets, as equities and bonds rallied in tandem. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) was compelled to play defense against a weaker global economy (particularly in Europe) and continued uncertainty related to the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.

Outlook on Emerging Markets

Emerging markets are expected to grow more and grow faster than developed markets in 2020, and fundamentals appear attractive for both equities and debt. Trade tensions and global growth prospects are, as ever, the issues to watch in the new year.

First Quarter Investment Outlook

2020 is starting off with a strong risk appetite, generally fair-to-rich asset valuations, and accommodative monetary policy from the major central banks. If the current expansion can stay on track, we anticipate another year of positive risk-asset performance.

How to Balance Your Bond Portfolio in 2020

In a low-yield, late-cycle environment, the right mix of credit securities and government bonds can help fixed-income investors boost income and tame volatility.

Oops! They QE’d Again

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has gone back to expanding its balance sheet. Some claim that quantitative easing (QE) is back; the Fed denies it. What we call it isn’t the point, says Sonal Desai, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO—what matters are the implications of this “permanently loose” policy stance for asset prices, investment strategy and market volatility.

Is Passive Feeding the Faanged Mega-Cap Beast?

Has passive investing helped drive the outperformance of mega-cap stocks?