Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

Spreading Setbacks, The Paradox of Thrift, and Sports Interrupted

COVID-19’s path is evident everywhere we look: spending, saving, staffing, sentiment, and sports.

2020 Mid-Year Outlook: Municipal Bonds

The first half of 2020 was dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which hit the municipal bond market hard. State and local governments experienced a sharp and sudden drop in revenue, and an increase in expenses, amid stay-at-home orders and business shutdowns.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals: Growth At A Reasonable Price (GARP)

I find it very interesting that Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALXN) after going public in 2001, did not generate their first profit until December 2008. As we all know, this was in the throes of what is now known as the Great Recession of 2008.

Midyear Outlook: Bond Investing in the Era of Low and No Yield

Low yields plus rising defaults seemingly leave little ground for bond investors seeking safety or income—or both. But for investors who remain flexible, those objectives aren’t as distant as many think.

Five Reasons EM Are More Resilient Than in the Past

In a new white paper, the GMO Emerging Markets Equity Team argues that Emerging Markets in aggregate are more resilient today than in prior periods, an important consideration as investors evaluate the rebound the asset class has experienced since late March.

Second Quarter 2020: What A Short Strange Trip It's Been

In 1976, Grateful Dead released “What a Long Strange Trip It’s Been.” The second quarter felt like a long strange trip, except it took place over just three months. We entered the quarter trying to flatten the curve, did so, and saw the economy reopen and social distancing restrictions relaxed to a degree.

Back to the Future: Leaning In During Uncertain Times

Against the backdrop of this new reality, and as most people are doing these days, I found myself browsing through Netflix. That’s when I noticed that the classic Robert Zemeckis movie, Back to the Future, was one of the trending titles. This made me think: what if we could travel back in time, not even as far back as 1955, but rather to January 1 of this year?

Stocks Disconnected from Reality? Here's Why Valuations Are Still Rational

It’s hard to recall a more confusing quarter for investors. While economic data plumbed depression-level depths for most of the past three months, equity markets rallied heavily. This odd juxtaposition led many to opine that markets had disconnected entirely from the economy. We disagree.

Market Scout - International and Emerging Markets Opportunities

High-quality companies outside the U.S. look especially attractive to us. And their stocks have underperformed recently, possibly giving them greater upside potential.

The Death Of Fundamentals & The Future Of Low Returns

Over the last quarter, the “Death of Fundamentals” has become apparent as investors ignore earnings to chase market momentum. However, throughout history, such large divergences between fundamentals and price have resulted in low future returns. This time is unlikely to be different.

Asia's Information Technology Leap

Software and hardware companies are supporting new forms of consumption in Asia, such as the growing popularity of online games. Portfolio managers Sharat Shroff and Inbok Song discuss the opportunity set for long-term investors.

On the Mend

The journey to a full recovery will be a long one, but at least we’ve taken some initial steps.

Record June Jobs, But The Recession May Not Be Over

For the second month in a row, the Labor Department reported last week that the economy added a record number of new jobs in June, vastly outpacing forecasters’ pre-report estimates. This far better than expected report is leading many economists to refigure their growth forecasts higher for the second half of this year.

Brexit in the Coronavirus Era

Reaching a mutually beneficial Brexit deal has so far been beyond the reach of UK and European Union (EU) negotiators. Now that COVID-19 has struck, can they avoid a damaging split?

A Turning Point for Emerging Market Debt

With inefficiency comes opportunity, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Nicholas Hardingham and Robert Nelson. They consider the emerging market debt landscape, and what the remainder of the year could bring for the asset class.