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The Inflation Trade Anew

Commentaries
Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms
Message from the Recent Bond Market Turmoil
The late-February spike in U.S. Treasury bond yields sent ripples throughout the global markets. As yields surged to the highest level in a year, stocks and commodities sold off sharply, while the dollar rallied.
As Retirement Income Needs Grow, DC Plan Sponsors Weigh Solutions
As more plan participants worry about retirement income security, demand for guaranteed income solutions is growing—and plan sponsors are pondering the options.
Coming Out of COVID-19: A Look at Interest Rates and Inflation in Europe
There is hope that economies will see a more sustainable and robust recovery this year, given unprecedented levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus and as more individuals are vaccinated against COVID-19. But one question for investors is what happens next—will inflation and higher interest rates be a consequence?
Are Inflation Fears Justified?
In the near term, markets should not be too worried about a possible spike in demand driving up inflation and interest rates, causing asset prices to fall across the board. But longer-term inflation risks are skewed much more to the upside than many investors and policymakers seem to realize.
The Global Economy Post COVID-19
"This pandemic has magnified every existing inequality in our society – like systemic racism, gender inequality, and poverty." Melinda Gates
Economic Commentary: Long-Term Growth, Tourism, Bankruptcies
How long will the effects of COVID be felt in potential growth, the tourism sector and bankruptcy filings?
Powell Changes The Rules On QE
The markets took a tumble to start this week as rising interest rates and inflationary pressures begin to weigh on outlooks. Those worries quickly diminished as Jerome Powell changed the rules to reassure Wall Street that “QE” is here to stay.
Government Bond Yields Have Surged, but Real Yields Are at Zero
Yields have jumped so much, in fact, that they’re giving stocks a serious run for their money. The 10-year yield is now higher than the S&P 500 dividend yield, which may have added to the selling pressure that cost stocks close to 2.5% yesterday.
The Great Jobs Reset
What normalcy will it be? I don’t expect to simply go back to the way things were. The economy as it was structured in December 2019 is gone forever. The world is different now. The economy will be different, too.
Treasury Auction Results Spark Drop in U.S. Stock Prices
Despite the recent weakness in equities, Raymond James CIO Larry Adam expects positive stock growth over the next 12 months.
NewsLetter - February 2021
We hope you enjoy Harold Evensky's latest NewsLetter.
The Queen’s Gambit Declined
The Queen’s Gambit miniseries helped propel Netflix to a winning earnings report last quarter, but in fact the chess strategy it is named after has helped propel chess players to winning games for decades.
What To Do Before The Tech Bubble Bursts
For the last year or two big tech has been hot, so has new tech. For prudence sake, it might be time to take a little money off the table. No one can time the market, and the bubble has risen far further and for a lot longer than any rational person could have predicted.
Can Mario Draghi Recharge Italy’s Economy?
Italy’s new prime minister, Mario Draghi, has a well-earned reputation for turning around difficult situations. But can he reverse Italy’s relative economic decline? And what does his program mean for Italian bond yields?
Inflation Is Coming for Your Wealth. Here's What Investors Can Do About It
Inflation is back on investors' minds lately, and some may be wondering how to position their portfolios to confront this potential new scourge.
The Birth of Global Tech Continues
From cloud computing and automation to self-driving cars, technology continues to be one of the world’s hottest sectors. Our Chief Market Strategist Stephen Dover and Portfolio Managers Donald Huber and John Remmert believe active investing in technology and innovation is a global story, and government support and spending in next-generation technologies is likely a long-term positive.
High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - First Quarter 2021
Our positive 2021 economic outlook, combined with better-than-expected company fundamentals, supports strong credit performance and spreads.
The Greatest Possible Stimulus
After receiving the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus from China, it took Moderna just two days (two days!!) to generate the sequence of the vaccine. In less than a month, they produced the first clinical batch of the mRNA-1273 vaccine that has now seen tens of millions of doses distributed.
Pulling Up the Inflation Anchor
Rather than worrying about the prospects of higher long-term expected inflation, the US Federal Reserve is exuding confidence that it can maintain price stability should the need ever arise. It should think again, before the inflation genie has escaped from the bottle.
This Era May Come to Be Remembered as the Federal Reserve’s Third Great Mistake
The Great Inflation of the 1960s and 70s, the earliest stages of which were already underway when Graham spoke at the St. Francis Hotel, eventually produced some of the most astonishing economic dislocations in U.S. history.
The Only Reason To Be “Bearish” Is “No One Is Bearish”
More than 90% of investors believe the economy will be more robust in 2021, with a consensus it’s a V-shape recovery. For the first time since January 2020, chief investment officers want to increase capital spending rather than improve balance sheets.
What the Pandemic Taught Us About Target Date Funds
Target date funds should be designed to reduce the risk of rash selling.
A Value Investor’s View on US Small-Cap Stocks
Franklin Small Cap Value Fund Portfolio Manager Steve Raineri discusses why he thinks the near-record underperformance of higher-quality, profitable small-capitalization (small-cap) value stocks relative to lower-quality, unprofitable companies could present a compelling opportunity for longer-term investors as the US economy continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Going Independent: A Guided Checklist to Forming Your Own RIA
Continuing our series, Going Independent, we want to provide those considering going out on their own with an easy-to-follow checklist of everything you need to do to form your own RIA.
Five Things Investors Should Know About Hydrogen
Hydrogen’s potential as an energy source is attracting renewed attention. It may take 20 years or so for the potential to be realized. But the effects are likely to be felt within the planning horizons of most long-term investors—a good reason to start thinking now about the investment implications.
Fiscal Spending Could Cause a U.S. Growth Spike – Compounding Investors’ Concerns on Inflation
A large fiscal package geared toward pandemic relief will likely boost U.S. growth even further in 2021, but long-term inflationary risks are still balanced.
Will the Energy Sector Evolve or Devolve?
The energy sector is beginning to adapt to the realities of climate change. Who is best positioned for the future?
"SPACs" - Probably Best To Just Say NO
One of the most popular investment vehicles in recent years is the Special Purpose Acquisition Companies or “SPACs” as they’re commonly called. While SPACs have been around for years, they’ve increasingly become the investment model of choice for Wall Street firms and fund managers who promote them.
GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecast: January 2021
The GMO Asset Allocation Team has released its latest 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts through January 2021.
EleVation: Some V-Shaped Economic Data to Cheer
Looking at the latest economic data reveals V-shaped recoveries in many goods-based indicators; while services has more catch-up to do.
Beating Bobby Fischer
We think this is an excellent time to ponder the thoughts of Buffett and Munger.
Project Syndicate
Before his death on February 6, George P. Shultz, a former US Secretary of the Treasury and Secretary of State, co-authored a final commentary warning of the dangers posed by the vast increase in US government spending in recent years, including during the COVID-19 crisis.
Risks of High Equity Valuations Present Tactical Opportunities
Calls of a market bubble might indicate low returns over the next 5-10 years, but not all equities are overvalued. The S&P 500 has been led higher by just a handful of companies that make up a large percentage of the index, and companies that have lagged may now provide better risk-adjusted returns as the economy recovers. We highlight some of the valuation metrics that look stretched and some thoughts on tactical allocation ideas.
The Power of And
A look at two ingredients that make a meaningful impact on performance in the mid cap space.
Using GameStop To Uncover Biases
What recently transpired in GameStop's stock was truly epic. More astonishing, though, was the ease at which a nihilistic narrative took hold in the absence of fact. To me it was telling and an opportunity to improve my thinking.
The Polar Vortex and Texas’ Municipal Power Market
About a week ago, an unprecedented polar vortex descended upon the southwestern United States. The deep cold forced power plants in Texas to take production offline, leading to rolling blackouts and leaving more than four million households without power.
Overstimulation on the Way
Things are looking up for the US economy. Later this week we'll get an update on real GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2020. We estimate that'll be revised up to a 4.3% annual rate of growth from a prior estimate of 4.0%.
No One Is Safe Until Everyone Is Safe
Minimizing the risk of yet more destabilizing COVID-19 variants is crucial if countries are to turn the corner on a shock that has wrecked lives and livelihoods. The alternative is to adopt a bunker-like approach and sharply curtail the inward and outward flow of citizens, residents, and visitors.
The Inflation Outlook, Part 2
The details of the January Producer Price Index showed a further surge in prices of raw materials. Breakeven inflation rates (the yield spread between inflation-adjusted Treasuries and fixed-rate Treasuries) have continued to move higher.
Municipal Bond Outlook: Recovering at Different Speeds
Political change, continued fiscal support will drive municipal markets in 2021, although outcomes are likely to vary.
Muni Credit Plays Defense When Rates Rise
As COVID-19 vaccines roll out and resrictions lift, a US economic rebound could lead to tighter Federal Reserve policy and higher yields. Municipal bond investors may worry about how rising yields could hurt their portfolios.
Inflation Here, There and Everywhere
What a week for price data! We have been writing about the possibility of higher inflation for months now, most recently here. We have also highlighted the most likely assets to benefit from higher inflation like copper, oil and energy stocks.
Vaccine Nationalism, Minimum Wage, Rising Energy Prices
Weighing the costs of global vaccine access, minimum wage and the energy rally.
Fiscal Policy: Veering Left and Moving Fast
Congressional leaders are aiming to pass a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package by mid-March. This approach is not without risks.
Spectate or Speculate
Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.