Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

The Fed’s Ethics Are Being Tested

Personal trading could undermine public trust in the Federal Reserve.

Q3 2021 Market Perspectives: "A Global Shift"

After beginning the quarter on a relatively upbeat note, familiar themes returned as fears of inflation, ambiguity over the end of the pandemic, and uncertainty about the future of Chinese capitalism raised concerns for investors. 

Fed To Taper, Inflation Rising, Retail Shortages Coming

We touch on several bases today as we often do. We begin with the Fed which decided to start reducing its monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in November. This was not a surprise.

Impending Super Cycle Commodity Signal Argues Against Transitory Inflation

We are in uncharted waters on many fronts, so no one can really answer that inflation/deflation question with any degree of certainty. We can however, look to the technical condition of commodity markets for guidance, since they have usually, acted as a barometer for more generalized swings in inflationary and deflationary pressures. Commodity prices look poised to signal a new secular bull market, which would likely broaden out to result in the highest more generalized inflation rates since the 1970’s.

The Beast of Burden of Inflation

The age of abundance has given way to an age of scarcity, while the pro-cyclical version of inflation may have given way to the counter-cyclical version.

10x10, Part 1: Asset owner and manager perspectives on diversity & inclusion

Excerpts from Cerulli Associates' report on asset owner and manager perspectives when it comes to promoting diversity & inclusion.

For The First Time Since the 70s, Demographics Support Higher Rates

New projections of the labor force growth rate by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics show the US labor force growth accelerating in the 2020s for the first time since the 1970s.

Zuckerberg’s Choice

We have entered the phase when the body politic and public opinion are aware that Facebook is disturbing our society. This is very important to us as investors, because the big tech companies make up a disproportionately large part of the S&P 500 Index.

Testing Times For Multilateralism

Unilateralism is not a remedy for multilateral institutions.

Monday Morning Outlook: Respect Millennials

Politics today is in large part about pitting one group against another and convincing one side they've been treated unfairly. One of those groups is the younger generation of workers known as Millennials, who are supposedly up to their eyeballs in debt and lagging well behind prior generations.

Monthly Municipal Market Update, September 2021

The Fed's more hawkish stance at September’s FOMC meeting, rising upside inflation pressures, and near-term volatility drove Treasury yields higher at the end of the month.

The Perfect Storm Behind the Gas Price Surge

While the surge in gas prices seems to have surprised the market, it’s been more than nine months in the making. Ryan McGrail discusses the factors behind the surge and what could happen next.

Inflation is a Wolverine

The media and the economics profession are treating inflation like it is a friendly puppy dog. They think you can take it out of its pen and play with it for a while. The popular theory is that you bring it out in a severe dip in economic activity and when the economy gets back on its feet, you kindly ask inflation to crawl back into its pen like any good puppy dog would do.

The Fed’s Ethics Are Being Tested

Personal trading could undermine public trust in the Federal Reserve.

Technically Speaking: Is The Risk Of A Bigger Correction Over?

Is the risk of a more significant correction over now that the expected 5% decline is complete? That was a hotly debated question after this past weekend’s newsletter supporting the idea of a reflexive rally into year-end.