The Small Cap Channel

Problems Solved?

Brexit and trade talks provided lots of uncertainty this year. Last week saw progress on both fronts.

Expecting a Market Downturn? Make Sure You’re Following the “Noah Rule”

Predicting a major economic or financial event—whether that’s a recession, market downturn or even your own retirement—requires that you also take action. Otherwise your prediction was meaningless.

Time to Do the Hard Thing

Much of the reaction to last week’s Inflationary Angst letter boiled down to, “Get government out of the way and the free market will work.” Others said the opposite: Government must help people even more than it already does. I wish it were that easy. Neither of those options are what we need, and today I will explain why.

UK Election: Will Tory Victory Bring Investors Back to UK Equities?

As widely expected, the Conservative Party emerged victorious in the UK general election. Our Colin Morton anticipates UK equity markets will welcome the outcome, but cautions that some uncertainties remain.

UK Elections: Conservatives Win Big, Brexit Will Happen – What Kind of Brexit Is Still Unclear

While the election outcome was quickly reflected in the pound exchange rate, the direction from here depends on what kind of relationship Boris Johnson really (really) wants to have with the EU. Find out more from our currency expert.

Retail Sales: Up 0.19% in November

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for November was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.19% month-over-month to one decimal and was below the Investing.com forecast of 0.5%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.12% MoM (to two decimals).

The 2020 Economic Outlook

U.S. economic activity is expected to remain mixed in 2020, with moderate strength in consumer spending and general softness in business fixed investment and manufacturing.

Household Incomes: The Decline of the "Middle Class" 2018 Update

The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. In terms of income, this class has not gained much in recent decades. Let's take a closer look at a troubling aspect of the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data, issued in September. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting, which began in 1967, to the release of the annual data for 2018.

Troubled Times Can Give Birth to Opportunity

Asia goes into the global deceleration with already-lean companies and a valuation advantage.

Changing Speeds?

A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

China A-Shares: An Opportunity in Strategic Exposure

Why should investors pay attention to the China A-share market? We explain why we believe the opening of one of the most liquid and diverse markets in the world has profound implications for global portfolios.

Three Highlights from the MarketCounsel Summit

MarketCounsel’s Summit, held earlier this week in Miami, lived up to its reputation as the “all-star game” of financial advisor conferences, attracting top-level executives from throughout the investment industry. Here are three highlights from Tuesday’s sessions.

Should You “Sell” Volatility?

Academic theory predicts that the volatility implied by the VIX index will be greater than the realized volatility. That difference can be thought of as an insurance premium investors are willing to pay because volatility tends to spike when stocks crash, as in the last bear market. New research confirms that investors can profit from this and that such a strategy is uncorrelated with other traditional sources of return.

Assessing Potential US Health Care Reforms Ahead of an Election Year

Health care reforms are always a popular topic of discussion ahead of a US presidential election campaign, where politicians talk about proposed changes that can be very different than the current system.

All Asset All Access, December 2019

Research Affiliates discusses why they believe value investing is still alive and well and explains how changes to the display of expense ratios seek to enhance clarity for investors.