The International Channel

The Risks and Opportunities in Emerging Markets

For the past 30 years, emerging markets have provided return enhancement and risk diversification opportunities for global equity investors. That has been fueled by the liberalization of the Chinese capital market, which comprises about a third of the allocation to emerging market indices. In 2019, emerging markets have been volatile, driven by changes in U.S. monetary policy, increasing political uncertainty and deteriorating conditions for international trade. My guest, Peter Gillespie, and I discuss whether these factors are temporary or will have a long-lasting impact.

Matthews Asia - Opportunities in Emerging Markets

The emerging markets (“EM”) equity asset class has evolved considerably over the past decade such that many active EM equity managers may find it challenging to create long-term alpha over the benchmark. Countries such as China and India are moving to the fore, historical drivers of growth are changing and technology, innovation and health care are becoming a larger part of the opportunity set. It has been difficult for EM investment teams to keep up with these changes. My guest today, David Dali, wrote those words in a recent commentary, and we discuss how he and his team are positioning to adapt to that changing landscape.

Problems Solved?

Brexit and trade talks provided lots of uncertainty this year. Last week saw progress on both fronts.

Expecting a Market Downturn? Make Sure You’re Following the “Noah Rule”

Predicting a major economic or financial event—whether that’s a recession, market downturn or even your own retirement—requires that you also take action. Otherwise your prediction was meaningless.

Time to Do the Hard Thing

Much of the reaction to last week’s Inflationary Angst letter boiled down to, “Get government out of the way and the free market will work.” Others said the opposite: Government must help people even more than it already does. I wish it were that easy. Neither of those options are what we need, and today I will explain why.

UK Election: Will Tory Victory Bring Investors Back to UK Equities?

As widely expected, the Conservative Party emerged victorious in the UK general election. Our Colin Morton anticipates UK equity markets will welcome the outcome, but cautions that some uncertainties remain.

UK Elections: Conservatives Win Big, Brexit Will Happen – What Kind of Brexit Is Still Unclear

While the election outcome was quickly reflected in the pound exchange rate, the direction from here depends on what kind of relationship Boris Johnson really (really) wants to have with the EU. Find out more from our currency expert.

What Boris Johnson’s Election Victory Means for UK Assets

We expect to see flows back into UK equity and credit now that some of the Brexit uncertainty has been removed.

Federal Reserve Appears Confident in U.S. Economy's Soft Landing

In its December forecasts, the Federal Reserve estimates that the policy rate will hold steady through 2020. Will economic and trade developments change that view?

Fed Holds Rates Steady, as Expected

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as expected; while signaling rates would stay in their current range through next year.

The 2020 Economic Outlook

U.S. economic activity is expected to remain mixed in 2020, with moderate strength in consumer spending and general softness in business fixed investment and manufacturing.

Closing Strong

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.

Troubled Times Can Give Birth to Opportunity

Asia goes into the global deceleration with already-lean companies and a valuation advantage.

Changing Speeds?

A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

China A-Shares: An Opportunity in Strategic Exposure

Why should investors pay attention to the China A-share market? We explain why we believe the opening of one of the most liquid and diverse markets in the world has profound implications for global portfolios.