The Healthcare Channel

Expecting a Market Downturn? Make Sure You’re Following the “Noah Rule”

Predicting a major economic or financial event—whether that’s a recession, market downturn or even your own retirement—requires that you also take action. Otherwise your prediction was meaningless.

Time to Do the Hard Thing

Much of the reaction to last week’s Inflationary Angst letter boiled down to, “Get government out of the way and the free market will work.” Others said the opposite: Government must help people even more than it already does. I wish it were that easy. Neither of those options are what we need, and today I will explain why.

What Boris Johnson’s Election Victory Means for UK Assets

We expect to see flows back into UK equity and credit now that some of the Brexit uncertainty has been removed.

The 2020 Economic Outlook

U.S. economic activity is expected to remain mixed in 2020, with moderate strength in consumer spending and general softness in business fixed investment and manufacturing.

Should You “Sell” Volatility?

Academic theory predicts that the volatility implied by the VIX index will be greater than the realized volatility. That difference can be thought of as an insurance premium investors are willing to pay because volatility tends to spike when stocks crash, as in the last bear market. New research confirms that investors can profit from this and that such a strategy is uncorrelated with other traditional sources of return.

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 49K from Last Week, Much Worse Than Forecast

This morning's seasonally adjusted 252K new claims, up 49K from the previous week's unrevised figure, was much worse than the Investing.com forecast of 213K.

Insured municipals offer investors additional assurance

Insured bonds continue to pay interest and principal even if an issuer defaults.

Consumer Price Index: November Headline at 2.05%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.05%, up from 1.76% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.32%, up slightly from the previous month's 2.31% and above the Fed's 2% PCE target.

Weekly Investment Strategy

Read the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.

Will Outsourcing Improve Profit Margins?

I’m not interested in letting most of my staff go. But I am also not up for adding to staff and therefore expenses.

Quiet Your Ego

If your ego is too loud, it stops you from reaching your goals and having a happier, more fulfilling life.

College Planning: Is the ROI in the College or the Major?

Over the course of 20+ years, families have been bamboozled into spending trillions on top-end colleges, while overlooking the fact that it's actually the academic major that is far more important.

The November Employment Report

Nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in the initial estimate for November (+266,000), with upward revisions to the gains for September and October (a net 41,000 higher). In contrast, the ADP estimate of private-sector payrolls rose more modestly (+67,000). What to believe?

The Key Trends in the ETF Industry

Matthew Bartolini has recently recommended cybersecurity protection, housing and healthcare stocks for Q4 of 2019. He has also commented on the fact that fixed-income ETFs have recorded record inflows for 2019, and has likened investing the context of weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector to “driving with the check engine light on.” We discuss those calls as well as other key developments in the ETF industry.

Inflationary Angst

We don’t have much time to get our house in order, either in the US or globally. Everything I’ve said today applies, to various degrees, throughout the developed world. Thinking that 2% inflation or zero interest rates coupled with massive deficits will somehow help is beyond wishful thinking.