The Emerging Markets Channel

The Risks and Opportunities in Emerging Markets

For the past 30 years, emerging markets have provided return enhancement and risk diversification opportunities for global equity investors. That has been fueled by the liberalization of the Chinese capital market, which comprises about a third of the allocation to emerging market indices. In 2019, emerging markets have been volatile, driven by changes in U.S. monetary policy, increasing political uncertainty and deteriorating conditions for international trade. My guest, Peter Gillespie, and I discuss whether these factors are temporary or will have a long-lasting impact.

Matthews Asia - Opportunities in Emerging Markets

The emerging markets (“EM”) equity asset class has evolved considerably over the past decade such that many active EM equity managers may find it challenging to create long-term alpha over the benchmark. Countries such as China and India are moving to the fore, historical drivers of growth are changing and technology, innovation and health care are becoming a larger part of the opportunity set. It has been difficult for EM investment teams to keep up with these changes. My guest today, David Dali, wrote those words in a recent commentary, and we discuss how he and his team are positioning to adapt to that changing landscape.

Problems Solved?

Brexit and trade talks provided lots of uncertainty this year. Last week saw progress on both fronts.

Expecting a Market Downturn? Make Sure You’re Following the “Noah Rule”

Predicting a major economic or financial event—whether that’s a recession, market downturn or even your own retirement—requires that you also take action. Otherwise your prediction was meaningless.

UK Election: Will Tory Victory Bring Investors Back to UK Equities?

As widely expected, the Conservative Party emerged victorious in the UK general election. Our Colin Morton anticipates UK equity markets will welcome the outcome, but cautions that some uncertainties remain.

What Boris Johnson’s Election Victory Means for UK Assets

We expect to see flows back into UK equity and credit now that some of the Brexit uncertainty has been removed.

Federal Reserve Appears Confident in U.S. Economy's Soft Landing

In its December forecasts, the Federal Reserve estimates that the policy rate will hold steady through 2020. Will economic and trade developments change that view?

Fed Holds Rates Steady, as Expected

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as expected; while signaling rates would stay in their current range through next year.

The 2020 Economic Outlook

U.S. economic activity is expected to remain mixed in 2020, with moderate strength in consumer spending and general softness in business fixed investment and manufacturing.

Closing Strong

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.

Troubled Times Can Give Birth to Opportunity

Asia goes into the global deceleration with already-lean companies and a valuation advantage.

Changing Speeds?

A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

China A-Shares: An Opportunity in Strategic Exposure

Why should investors pay attention to the China A-share market? We explain why we believe the opening of one of the most liquid and diverse markets in the world has profound implications for global portfolios.

Should You “Sell” Volatility?

Academic theory predicts that the volatility implied by the VIX index will be greater than the realized volatility. That difference can be thought of as an insurance premium investors are willing to pay because volatility tends to spike when stocks crash, as in the last bear market. New research confirms that investors can profit from this and that such a strategy is uncorrelated with other traditional sources of return.

The Fund That Isn’t Following the ESG/SRI Herd

In the U.S., between one quarter and one third of all assets managed are done so with an ESG or SRI mandate. Outside the U.S., that percentage is even higher. The Vitium Global Fund, formerly the Vice Fund, buys what most ESG/SRI investors scorn, stocks in the tobacco, alcoholic beverage, gaming and aerospace/defense industries.