The Commodities Channel

Problems Solved?

Brexit and trade talks provided lots of uncertainty this year. Last week saw progress on both fronts.

Expecting a Market Downturn? Make Sure You’re Following the “Noah Rule”

Predicting a major economic or financial event—whether that’s a recession, market downturn or even your own retirement—requires that you also take action. Otherwise your prediction was meaningless.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: November Real Retail Sales

Month-over-month nominal sales in November increased by 0.2% (0.19% to two decimal points). Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 0.1% (0.07% to two decimal points).

The 2020 Economic Outlook

U.S. economic activity is expected to remain mixed in 2020, with moderate strength in consumer spending and general softness in business fixed investment and manufacturing.

Changing Speeds?

A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

China A-Shares: An Opportunity in Strategic Exposure

Why should investors pay attention to the China A-share market? We explain why we believe the opening of one of the most liquid and diverse markets in the world has profound implications for global portfolios.

Advisors and Clients Walking past Each Other on Sustainable Investment

Did you know that more than $12 trillion in assets under management are engaged in one or more strategies of sustainable investment in the United States? This comprises more than 25 percent of the professional managed assets across the country and is a 38 percent growth from 2016 figures.

Should You “Sell” Volatility?

Academic theory predicts that the volatility implied by the VIX index will be greater than the realized volatility. That difference can be thought of as an insurance premium investors are willing to pay because volatility tends to spike when stocks crash, as in the last bear market. New research confirms that investors can profit from this and that such a strategy is uncorrelated with other traditional sources of return.

Weekly Heating Oil Prices

The latest price of home heating oil nationwide is $3.02. Residential heating oil supplies are 17.1% above their all-time low.

Teeter-Totter Stock Market

One way of thinking about the share price of a common stock is the price range as a teeter-totter. When the psychology of investors is very negative, enthusiasm for the company hits the ground. On the other end, when everyone is in love with a company’s shares, their end of the board can’t seem to get any higher. Where is the board end hitting the ground currently and who is stuck up in the air on a psychological high?

All Asset All Access, December 2019

Research Affiliates discusses why they believe value investing is still alive and well and explains how changes to the display of expense ratios seek to enhance clarity for investors.

Is the Fed Gearing Up for a New Round of Quantitative Easing? Here Are the Possible Signs

“This is not QE. In no sense is this QE.” That was Jerome Powell in early October, answering a reporter’s question on whether the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the overnight U.S. repo market constituted another round of quantitative easing (QE).

Gundlach on the Biggest Risk Facing Bond Investors and the Likely Next President

Fear among bond investors is focused on rising rates, but Jeffrey Gundlach says you should worry about something more sinister. In his webcast yesterday, he also offered his updated 2020 presidential election prediction.

Consumer Price Index: November Headline at 2.05%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.05%, up from 1.76% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.32%, up slightly from the previous month's 2.31% and above the Fed's 2% PCE target.

Emerging Markets Record Diverse Performances in November

It was a mixed month for emerging markets in November, as shifting expectations about a trade deal between China and the United States continued to drive market sentiment. Our emerging markets equity team explains why US-China trade issues may not be that big of a concern for some emerging markets, and provides an overview of the news and events shaping markets during the month.