MarketCounsel’s Summit, held earlier this week in Miami, lived up to its reputation as the “all-star game” of financial advisor conferences, attracting top-level executives from throughout the investment industry. Here are three highlights from Tuesday’s sessions.

Academic theory predicts that the volatility implied by the VIX index will be greater than the realized volatility. That difference can be thought of as an insurance premium investors are willing to pay because volatility tends to spike when stocks crash, as in the last bear market. New research confirms that investors can profit from this and that such a strategy is uncorrelated with other traditional sources of return.

Insured bonds continue to pay interest and principal even if an issuer defaults.

Health care reforms are always a popular topic of discussion ahead of a US presidential election campaign, where politicians talk about proposed changes that can be very different than the current system.

One way of thinking about the share price of a common stock is the price range as a teeter-totter. When the psychology of investors is very negative, enthusiasm for the company hits the ground. On the other end, when everyone is in love with a company’s shares, their end of the board can’t seem to get any higher. Where is the board end hitting the ground currently and who is stuck up in the air on a psychological high?

In the U.S., between one quarter and one third of all assets managed are done so with an ESG or SRI mandate. Outside the U.S., that percentage is even higher. The Vitium Global Fund, formerly the Vice Fund, buys what most ESG/SRI investors scorn, stocks in the tobacco, alcoholic beverage, gaming and aerospace/defense industries.

Jean highlights some key takeaways that may help you with next year’s investment decisions.

Research Affiliates discusses why they believe value investing is still alive and well and explains how changes to the display of expense ratios seek to enhance clarity for investors.

“This is not QE. In no sense is this QE.” That was Jerome Powell in early October, answering a reporter’s question on whether the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the overnight U.S. repo market constituted another round of quantitative easing (QE).

With REITs posting strong returns this year, should investors overweight them?

Read the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.

It was a mixed month for emerging markets in November, as shifting expectations about a trade deal between China and the United States continued to drive market sentiment. Our emerging markets equity team explains why US-China trade issues may not be that big of a concern for some emerging markets, and provides an overview of the news and events shaping markets during the month.

Central bank easing and the cooling China-U.S. trade war have set the scene for a global economic rebound in 2020. Our forecast pushes the risk of recession into late 2021, giving equity markets modest upside potential for 2020.

Positive returns across asset classes in 2019 may limit tax loss selling in closed-end funds, but we see potential long term value in select sectors where investors can still buy assets at a discount.

The headline number for November came in at 104.7, up 2.3 from the previous month. The index is at the 93rd percentile in this series.

The purpose of this article is to better acquaint plan sponsors and service providers, like BDs and RIAs, dealing with 401(k) plans with the requirements they must understand and adhere to under ERISA.

One way to address market volatility is through real assets – natural resources, infrastructure, and real estate. Those tend to have low correlations with traditional stock and bond allocations. I am speaking today with Michael Natale, who explains why an allocation to real assets can hedge against the risks in stocks and bonds.

All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through December 9, 2019. The top performer is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 25.64% and in second is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 26.65%. In third is Germany's DAXK with a gain of 21.71%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 5.43%.

The hedge fund firm Renaissance Technologies, founded by James Simons, has been an object of amazement, admiration, and envy for years, because of the incredibly high investment returns of its flagship Medallion fund. In a new book, author Gregory Zuckerman explains how Renaissance did it. He also shows how a key Renaissance employee used his riches to get Donald Trump elected president.

Factor performance, as conceived by Fama and French and refined by others, is based on adding the returns of a “long” portfolio of securities that most embody the factors to a “short” portfolio that least represent the factors. But it is common practice for mutual funds and ETFs to use only the long portfolio. New research show that this approach does effectively capture the returns of the underlying factors.

A year ago, conventional wisdom became convinced that a stock market correction was really the beginning of a "bear market," and a sure sign that recession was on its way. Oops. Conventional wisdom was wrong again.

The U.S. economy likely will remain split in early 2020.

Nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in the initial estimate for November (+266,000), with upward revisions to the gains for September and October (a net 41,000 higher). In contrast, the ADP estimate of private-sector payrolls rose more modestly (+67,000). What to believe?

Investors continue to question whether US equity valuations are too high, particularly for growth companies and versus other global markets. But standard valuation metrics don’t tell the whole story. Understanding the cost of capital can provide essential insight on valuing stocks.

Considering investment outsourcing? Our CFO weighs in on key and peripheral issues to contemplate.

While many risk assets have rallied in 2019, the lower-rated tranches of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have weakened. Is this a sign that the credit cycle is turning?

Rate cuts and overnight operations were important developments this year. Where will the Fed go from here?

While the bulls are certainly hoping the “cash hoard” will flow into U.S. equities, the reality may be quite different.

Matthew Bartolini has recently recommended cybersecurity protection, housing and healthcare stocks for Q4 of 2019. He has also commented on the fact that fixed-income ETFs have recorded record inflows for 2019, and has likened investing the context of weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector to “driving with the check engine light on.” We discuss those calls as well as other key developments in the ETF industry.

U.S. stocks continue to trade near their all-time highs but recent hiccups in trade talks have re-emphasized that a deal remains elusive, decisively unpredictable, and incomplete. Key components of the first phase have yet to be put in writing and major structural issues—such as intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers—will remain unaddressed for the foreseeable future, confirming that little-to-no material progress has been made.

One of the best ways to “supercharge” your gold position is with precious metal royalty and streaming companies. Think Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, Royal Gold and others.

We don’t have much time to get our house in order, either in the US or globally. Everything I’ve said today applies, to various degrees, throughout the developed world. Thinking that 2% inflation or zero interest rates coupled with massive deficits will somehow help is beyond wishful thinking.

Improvements in accessibility are expected to accelerate further inclusion in the near term.

We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. Scott talks through our 2019 calls.

We aim to support wealth management firms, advisors, and investors as they assess portfolio strategy and navigate the shifting trends we face in the new year.

Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? At this point, over ten years later, the S&P 500 has set a series of inflation-adjusted record highs based on monthly averages of daily closes.

TThe December Preliminary came in at 99.2, up 2.4 from the November Final reading. Investing.com had forecast 97.0.

While all eyes are on estimated sales throughout December, sector performance for the month is historically not impressive.

China has come to the forefront of investors’ minds, and has become a larger portion of global indices over the past years while dominating global headlines. We believe investors’ slow reaction to the rise of China as a global economic power creates an opportunity for investors who are willing to lead the pack.

This morning's employment report for November showed a 266K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was above the Investing.com forecast of 186K.

In the U.S., between one quarter and one third of all assets are managed with an ESG/SRI mandate. Outside the U.S., that percentage is even higher. So I am going to explore what must be an unpopular topic – investing in so-called “sin” stocks. I am talking with the co-managers of the Vitium Global Fund – formerly the Vice Fund. That fund buys what most ESG/SRI investors scorn: stocks in the tobacco, alcoholic beverage, gaming and aerospace/defense industries.

The recent half-cycle has been admittedly difficult. My bearish response to historically-reliable “overvalued, overbought, overbullish” syndromes proved detrimental in the face of zero-interest rate policies that amplified speculation, and we’ve adapted our discipline to give priority to our measures of market internals – which we use to gauge that speculation.

With the third quarter of 2019 reporting season mostly behind us, we can take a look at what happened with earnings to see what’s real, what’s not, and what it will mean for the markets going forward.

After a series of disappointing initial public offerings (IPOs), private and public equity investors are becoming more discerning about earnings. And for good reason. Profitable companies outperform by a wide margin over time, even among high-growth companies, which often post losses early in their lifecycles.

It’s the top of a new month, meaning we get to see the latest manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) readings. And if you follow both the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and IHS Markit’s reports on U.S. factory activity, you may be getting some mixed signals.

US corporate profits are down from the 2014 peak. In this mid-quarter special report, we dive deep into corporate profits, taxes, profit margins and the increasing government debt levels that have propelled stock and bond prices higher, in our view, leading to rising equity and government bond valuations.

Many investors are somewhat skittish about illiquid alternatives because they’re worried about tying up their money for a long time in an investment that they can’t trade or exchange easily. However, illiquidity may actually work to investors’ advantage.

From September 10-12, a select group of our investment managers, economists and strategists congregated in London for our annual Global Investment Forum (GIF). The GIF is designed to tune out the day-to-day market noise and focus on key market drivers over the medium term.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the November Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at 53.9 percent, down 0.8 from 54.7 last month. Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 54.5 percent.

Today’s investors are fully aware of the perils of downside stock market risk. There is also a concern for their need to have enough money to retire which has led to advisory discussions on ways to participate in market gains while mitigating principal drawdowns.

The venerable investor Warren Buffett has a real knack of putting complex concepts and ideas into simple and easily understood terms. In my opinion, his quote, “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get” is one of the more profound and important statements he has ever uttered.

What steps are needed to help build a successful portfolio? One of our divisional directors shares his perspective.

As investors ponder the prospects for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity’s Bassel Khatoun and Salah Shamma take stock of the investment landscape. They highlight some of the market developments in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that have caught their attention.

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $15,604 for an annualized real return of 8.93%.

The last couple of years have been remarkable ones for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July of 2016 and then rose 41 BPs to 1.78% as of the November 29 close.

This update is in response to a standing request for real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite.

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

• The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline

What will investors be talking about in 2020? We explain how six key issues could shape the global economy and financial markets next year.

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a "normal" market environment -- one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation -- current valuation levels would be a serious concern.

But these are different times.

To get the attention of smart beta investors in a crowded marketplace, some smart beta providers are laying claim to performance that appears implausible. So what is plausible? We look at historical live performance to answer this important question.

Market valuation is always a factor; but often misunderstood is the vastness of the spectrum of metrics, and the sentiment nature of valuation.

The S&P 500 is up more than 25% year to date and has notched 26 record highs since January.

With the Q3 GDP Second Estimate and the November close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 144.6%, up from 142.1% the previous quarter.

With many investors seeking to diversify their equity exposure as the U.S. bull market charges into its historic 10th year, asset managers are now providing innovative and cost-effective SMA offerings that provide US investors access to the full breadth of the emerging market universe; a feature not previously available.

We have reached a stage in the cycle where you need to think out of the box in order to deliver respectable returns. Investing like most of us have done in the great bull market will not deliver returns anywhere near the levels we have enjoyed over the past 35-40 years. This month’s Absolute Return Letter offers a solution.

Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.

Quick take: At the end of November the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 125% above its long-term trend, up from 116% the previous month.

About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.

There is a tendency to think that owning a handful of stocks may be a bit riskier but have an equal likelihood of outperforming the market as a whole. This is wrong for two reasons.

Note: This update includes the Q3 GDP Second Estimate and the November close data.

As a seasoned and grizzled veteran of the financial services industry for now going on 50 years, the most commonly asked questions I have received, and still do to this day, are: when to buy and when to sell a stock?

Quick take: Based on the November S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 135% above its arithmetic mean and at the 100th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.

What's the most important economic number? GDP, Employment, claims....nope....those are all lagging indicators. If you want to know where you are headed look at the 85-component CFNAI. Here's why.

The November US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 52.6, up 1.3 from the 51.3 final October figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 46.3 in November from 43.2 in October, which was below the Investing.com forecast of 47.0 and in contraction territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.

Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.